آثار بالقوه حذف موانع تعرفه‌ای زیربخش‌های کشاورزی بر اشتغال‌زایی مستقیم و غیرمستقیم

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه تربیت مدرس

2 تهران، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، دانشکده کشاورزی، گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی

3 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه تربیت مدرس

چکیده


در سال‌های اخیر، آزادسازی تجاری به یکی از اهداف اصلی دولت‌ها و سیاست­گذاران تبدیل شده است. در این راستا، حذف تعرفه‌ واردات کالاها، مهم‌ترین اقدامی است که می‌تواند آثار قابل توجهی بر تولید، اشتغال و رفاه داشته باشد. بی تردید حذف تعرفه منجر به کاهش توان تولیدکننده‌ داخل نسبت به خارج از کشور می‌شود و این امر بر اشتغال‌زایی در کل اقتصاد مؤثر خواهد بود. بر این اساس، تحقیق حاضر به بررسی آثار حذف تعرفه‌‌ زیربخش‌های کشاورزی بر اشتغال‌زایی مستقیم و غیرمستقیم با استفاده از جدول داده- ستانده سال 1390 می‌پردازد. برای نیل به هدف تحقیق، پس از آنکه تعرفه­ واردات زیربخش‌های کشاورزی محاسبه گردید، آثار حذف تعرفه­ واردات بخش کشاورزی و نیز زیربخش­های آن شامل زراعت و باغداری، پرورش حیوانات، جنگل‌داری و ماهی‌گیری بر اشتغال‌زایی بررسی شد. بدین ترتیب، براثر حذف تعرفه­ واردات بخش کشاورزی، 7/3 درصد کاهش در اشتغال‌زایی مستقیم و غیرمستقیم و همچنین 2/6 درصد کاهش در اشتغال‌زایی غیرمستقیم مشاهده می‌گردد. در نتیجه، براثر آزادسازی تجاری بخش کشاورزی، اشتغال‌زایی غیرمستقیم بیش از اشتغال‌زایی مستقیم و غیرمستقیم کاهش می‌یابد. بر اساس شاخص اشتغال‌زایی غیرمستقیم در سناریوهای حذف تعرفه‌ واردات زیربخش‌های زراعت و باغداری، پرورش حیوانات، جنگل‌داری و ماهی‌گیری به ترتیب 4/5، 26/0، 52/0 و 03/0 درصد کاهش مشاهده می‏شود. با توجه به این نتایج می‌توان گفت که حذف موانع تعرفه­ای زیربخش‌های کشاورزی، علاوه بر کاهش اشتغال‌زایی مستقیم، موجب کاهش اشتغال‌زایی غیرمستقیم نیز می‌گردد و بیشتر بر بخش‌هایی اثر می‌گذارد که پیوندهای قوی با این زیربخش‌ها دارند. لذا پیشنهاد می‌شود دولت‌ها پیش از هرگونه اقدام جهت حذف تعرفه­ واردات بخش‌ها، به آثار غیرمستقیم بخش مورد نظر بر اشتغال‌زایی سایر بخش‌ها نیز توجه نمایند.
 
طبقه‌بندی JEL: A13, E01, E24, F16 

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

The Potential Effects of Eliminating the Tariff Barriers for Agricultural Sub-Sectors on Direct and Indirect Employment

نویسندگان [English]

  • M. Kiani Deh-Kiani 1
  • Seyed H.A Mosavi Mosavi 2
  • S. Khalilian 3
1 PhD Student of Agricultural Economics, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran
2 . Assistant Professor of Agricultural Economics, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran
3 Associate Professor of Agricultural Economics, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Ira
چکیده [English]

 In recent years, trade liberalization has become one of the main objectives of governments and policymakers. In this regard, removing import tariffs is the most important step that can have significant effects on production, employment and welfare. Undoubtedly, eliminating tariffs will reduce domestic producers' power over the foreign producer, and this will affect employment in the entire economy. Accordingly, the present study examines the effects of removing agricultural sub-sectors tariffs on direct and indirect employment using the input-output table in 2011. To achieve the research goal, after import tariffs were calculated for agricultural sub-sectors, the effects of eliminating import tariffs were examined on agricultural sector and its sub-sectors including agriculture, horticulture, animals breeding, forestry and fishing on employment. Thus, due to the removal of agricultural import tariffs, will be created 3.7 percent and 2.6 percent reduction in direct employment and indirect employment, respectively. As a result, due to trade liberalization in the agricultural sector, indirect employment will decline more than direct and indirect employment. Based on indirect employment index, in scenarios eliminating import tariffs for agriculture and horticulture, animals breeding, forestry and fishing, decrease by 5.4, 0.26, 0.52 and 0.03 percent respectively. According to these results, it can be said that removing the tariff barriers of agricultural sub-sectors, in addition to reducing direct employment, also leads to a reduction of indirect employment and more effective on sectors that have strong links with this sub-sector. Therefore, it is recommended, the government pay attention to indirect effects on the employment sector to other sectors before any action to remove import tariff sectors.
JEL Classification: A13, E01, E24, F16

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • agricultural sector
  • Trade Liberalization
  • employment
  • Input-Output Table

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