نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 استادیار پژوهش، مؤسسه پژوهشهای برنامهریزی، اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه روستایی. تهران. ایران.
2 استادیار پژوهش، موسسه پژوهشهای برنامهریزی، اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه روستایی. تهران. ایران.
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
Introduction: Following the exchange rate fluctuations, with the aim of preventing the jump in the prices of imported livestock and poultry feed inputs such as soybean meal and maize, Iranian government has chosen the policy of allocation preferential currency to the import of these inputs from May 2017. So, it is important to examine the effects of this policy and the amount of exchange rate pass-through to the price of soybean meal and maize.
Materials and Methods: In this study, using monthly data in the period 2009:3-2019:11, the impact of the exchange rate pass-through to the price of two imported inputs was investigated. For empirical analysis, the required data were collected from various sources such as Central Bank of Iran, State Livestock Affairs Logistic Company and International Grains Council. The estimation strategy was based on Markov Switching models. This framework allows the study to estimate the exchange rate pass-through to soybean meal and maize prices in various regimes.
Results and Discussion: The results revealed that due to the non-linear relationship between the variables, it was appropriate to use the non-linear Markov Switching model. Also, three stable regimes were identified for maize and two stable regimes for soybean meal. Passing of the exchange rate for the price of maize in zero and one regimes was significant and in the short term, the exchange rate pass-through in the zero and one regimes was 12 and 20 percent, respectively. In the long-term, rate of passing in the mentioned regimes were estimated at 20 and 16 percent, respectively. For soybean meal., the passing rate of the exchange rate in the regime one was significant and the passing rate in the short and long term was 19 and 22, respectively. These findings indicated that exchange rate pass-through had occurred incomplete for both inputs.
Conclusions: Although the adoption of the preferential exchange policy started at the beginning of 2017, but since the beginning of 2019, it has been able to prevent the exchange rate fluctuations from passing completely to the price of soybean meal and maize. After the changes in the preferential currency policy, although the compensation payment to households is being implemented but it is necessary to implement the facilities for the financing of producers as demanders of imported inputs.
کلیدواژهها [English]