نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 استادیار اقتصاد کشاورزی، مرکز تحقیقات و آموزش کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی سیستان، سازمان تحقیقات، آموزش و ترویج کشاورزی، زابل، ایران
2 استادیار زراعت بخش زراعی باغی، مرکز تحقیقات و آموزش کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی سیستان، سازمان تحقیقات، آموزش و ترویج کشاورزی، زابل، ایران.
3 استادیار گروه اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران.
4 استادیار مؤسسة پژوهشهای برنامهریزی، اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعة روستایی، تهران، ایران.
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
Introduction: Water shortage is one of the major problems of most countries in the world, especially countries with a growing population. The only solution to this crisis is the optimal use and increasing the productivity of water resources in various sectors, especially the agricultural sector. Therefore, it seems necessary to plan for optimal use of resources and economic allocation of this scarce factor among different uses.
Materials and Methods: Multi-Stage Interval Programming (MSIP) method consists of the combination of dynamic and interval programming in the framework of stochastic optimization. The dynamics of the model, the application of a predefined policy during the optimization process, and the use of interval parameters and probabilities under the uncertainty conditions are among the advantages of this technique. Multi-Stage Interval Stochastic Programming (MSISP) is the application of interval parameters under the uncertainty conditions and considering the farmer's profit and loss during water supply or shortage. Also, the mentioned model presents the values of water shortage during the programming period and gives farmers the opportunity to plan to face the water crisis. In fact, this model is a model between the primary goals of exploitation and economic goals.
Results and Discussion: Since the water supply for the region over time is a random variable, using the simulation method and the use of random numbers for different years, water supply was simulated 100 times randomly. These numbers were taken into account by considering an interval using the maximum and minimum of the past data and their standard deviation. It is worth mentioning that the 100 random selections of the amount of supply for the low water flow state were selected from dry years and for the other two states from normal and wet years, respectively.
Conclusions: In general, since water is very important in dry areas, especially in the Sistan region of Iran, and water-saving in consumption and most importantly, the efficiency of water consumption is one of the main priorities, any research leading to an increase in the water-productivity and water-saving in the use of this valuable input will help the region.
کلیدواژهها [English]