کاربرد روش نامتقارن نش در تعیین میزان برداشت بهینه از سفره‏ های آب زیرزمینی دشت جیرفت

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 نویسندة مسئول و دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه پیام نور تهران، ایران

2 استاد گروه اقتصاد، دانشکدة اقتصاد، دانشگاه تهران، ایران

3 استادیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی گرگان، ایران

4 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه پیام نور تهران، ایران

چکیده

برنامه‏ریزی برای تولید، جلوگیری از تخلیه زیان‏آور سفره‏های آب زیرزمینی و تعادل‏بخشی بدین منابع طبیعی مستلزم توازن در منابع آب و بهینه‏سازی فعالیت‏های زراعی است. برداشت بیش از حد از سفره آب زیرزمینی دشت جیرفت منجر به افت سطح ایستابی آبخوان شده و در صورت تداوم روند فعلی، اقتصاد مبتنی بر کشاورزی منطقه با تهدید جدی مواجه می‏شود. از این‏رو، هدف مطالعة حاضر تعیین میزان برداشت بهینه از منابع آب زیرزمینی دشت جیرفت با در نظر گرفتن همزمان اهداف اقتصادی و زیست‏محیطی بود. بدین منظور، نخست، محاسبة دو هدف متعارض حداکثرسازی سود کشاورزان و کاهش مخاطرات زیست‏محیطی متناظر با چهارده سناریوی برداشت از منابع آب زیرزمینی در یک مدل برنامه‏ریزی ریاضی مثبت (اثباتی) (PMP) و با استفاده از نرم افزار GAMS صورت گرفت. سپس، با بهره‏گیری از نظریة بازی‏ها (راه حل نامتقارن نش)، میزان برداشت بهینه از منابع آب زیرزمینی دشت جیرفت و الگوی کشت متناسب با آن تعیین شد. براساس نتایج مطالعه، هرچه میزان اهمیت اهداف زیست‏محیطی بیشتر می‏شود، مقدار برداشت از منابع آب کاهش می‏یابد و در صورت قائل شدن به وزن یکسان برای اهداف اقتصادی و زیست‏محیطی، میانگین برداشت بهینه از منابع آب زیرزمینی در سال زراعی 1395-1394، 773 میلیون مترمکعب می‏شود؛ همچنین، در الگوی کشت متناسب با برداشت بهینه آب، میزان برداشت آب 8/9 درصد، سطح زیر کشت موجود 9/14 درصد و درآمد خالص کشاورزان 9/5 درصد در سال کاهش می‏یابد. در نتیجه، پیشنهاد مطالعة حاضر اصلاح الگوی کشت موجود و کاهش حجم برداشت آب از منابع آب زیرزمینی دشت جیرفت با رعایت ملاحظات زیست‏محیطی و منافع بلندمدت جامعه است.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Application of Non-symmetric Nash Solution to Determine the Optimal Extraction of Groundwater Aquifers in Jiroft Plain of Iran

نویسندگان [English]

  • Ebrahim Mohammadi Soliemani 1
  • Majid Ahmadian 2
  • Ali Keramatzadeh 3
  • Mohsen Shokat Fadaei 4
  • Abolfazl Mahmoodi 4
1 PhD Student in Agricultural Economics, Payame Noor University of Tehran, Iran
2 Professor, Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics, University of Tehran, Iran.
3 Assistant Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics, Gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources
4 Associate Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics, Payame Noor University of Tehran, Iran.
چکیده [English]

Abstract
Planning for production, preventing harmful discharge of the aquifers and equilibrium of groundwater resources requires a balancing the water resources and optimizing the crop activities. Excessive extraction from the groundwater table of Jiroft Plain in Iran has led to a decline in the level of the aquifer; and if the current trend continues, the economies of the region based on agriculture will face a serious threat. This study aimed at determining the optimal extraction of groundwater resources in this plain, taking into account the combination of economic and environmental goals, using game theory. Consequently, two conflicting objectives of maximizing farmers' profit and reducing the environmental hazards corresponding to 14 extraction scenarios of groundwater resources were calculated in a positive mathematical programming (PMP) model using the GAMS software. Then, using the game theory (asymmetric Nash solution), the optimum extraction of groundwater resources of the plain and the proportional cropping pattern were determined. Based on the results, the greater the importance of environmental objectives, the lower the amount of water extraction; and the average of optimal water extraction from groundwater resources in the crop year 2015-2016 would be equal to773 million cubic meters, while considering the same weight for economic and environmental purposes. Also, within the cropping pattern proportional to the optimal water extraction, there would be reductions in the amount of water extraction by 9.8, the existing crop area by 14.9 and the net income of farmers by 5.9 percent per year. Therefore, the study suggested the compliance with considerations of environmental goals and long-term benefits of the community to modify the existing cropping pattern as well as the reduction in water extraction volume from groundwater resources in the plain.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Groundwater
  • Positive Mathematical Programming (PMP)
  • Game theory
  • Jiroft (Plain
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