اثرات سیاست محدودیت عرضه آب کشاورزی برالگوی کشت: مطالعه موردی دشت دهگلان در استان کردستان

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران

2 استادیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه کردستان، سنندج، ایران

3 استادیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران.

چکیده

در سال­های اخیر، برداشت­های بی­رویة آب به‌منظور تولید محصولات کشاورزی از سطح آب‌های زیرزمینی دشت دهگلان استان کردستان به‌شدت کاسته و این منبع حیاتی را با خطر جدی مواجه کرده است. مطالعه حاضر اثرات سیاست­ کاهش عرضه آب بر الگوی کشت محصولات، درآمد کشاورزان و میزان برداشت از آب‌های زیرزمینی دشت دهگلان را مورد بررسی قرار داد. بدین منظور، یک مدل برنامه‏ ریزی ریاضی اثباتی (PMP) با رهیافت حداکثر آنتروپی (ME) مدل‏سازی و برآورد شد. داده‌های مورد نیاز با استفاده از روش نمونه­ گیری خوشه­ ای دومرحله ­ای از طریق تکمیل 96 پرسشنامه توسط بهره‌برداران آب‌های زیرزمینی منطقه در سال زراعی 95-1394 به ‏دست آمد. نتایج نشان داد که با اعمال سیاست­ کاهش عرضه آب آبیاری، الگوی کشت به‌شدت تأثیر پذیرفته و به سمت محصولاتی مانند پیاز، سیب­ زمینی و خیار سوق یافته است؛ همچنین، در سناریوهای اول تا سوم، بازده ناخالص کل به ‏ترتیب 98/4، 96/9 و 94/14 درصد کاهش و بازده اقتصادی آب کشاورزی به‏ترتیب 65/5، 64/12 و 63/21 درصد افزایش خواهد یافت. در مجموع، با توجه به نتایج تحقیق، راهبرد اعمال محدودیت عرضه آب در کنار تغییر الگوی کشت می تواند به گونه ‏ای مؤثر برداشت آب را کاهش دهد و به حفظ و پایداری منابع آب زیرزمینی در دشت دهگلان کمک کند.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

The Effects of Restriction Policy of Agricultural Water Supply on Cropping Pattern: A Case Study of Dehgolan Plain in Kurdistan Province of Iran

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mohammad Ali Asaadi 1
  • Mahmood Haji Rahimi 2
  • Seyyed Abolghasem Mortazawi 3
1 PhD Student in Agricultural Economics, Tarbiat Modarres University, Tehran, Iran.
2 Assistant Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Kurdistan, Sanandaj, Iran
3 Assistant Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics, Tarbiat Modarres University, Tehran, Iram
چکیده [English]

Over recent years, unconventional extraction of irrigation water for producing agricultural products has decreased the level of groundwater in Dehgolan Plain of Kurdistan province in Iran, putting this vital resource at serious risk. This study aimed at investigating the effects of restrictive water supply policy on cropping patterns, farmers' incomes and the amount of water extraction from groundwater aquifer of Dehgolan Plain. For this purpose, a positive mathematical programming (PMP) model along with a maximum entropy (ME) model was developed and estimated. The required data was obtained in a two-stage cluster sampling method through completing 96 questionnaires from farmers in the villages of the region for the 2015-2016 farming year. The results showed that the irrigation water reduction policies had a great impact on the cultivation pattern and led farmers to products with more economic efficiency in water use. Furthermore, as a result of this policy, the gross margins in the first to third scenarios will decrease by 4.94, 9.96 and 14.94 percent, respectively, and the economic return on irrigation water will increase by 5.65, 12.64 and 21.63 percent, respectively. In conclusion, according to the results of this study, the strategy of restricting water supply along with the changes in cultivation pattern might effectively reduce water extraction and contribute to maintain and sustain the groundwater resources of the Dehgolan Plain.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • water supply
  • Cropping pattern
  • Positive Mathematical Programming (PMP)
  • Dehgolan (Plain)
  1. Amidi, A. (2006). Sampling methods. Tehran: Payame Noor University press. (Persian)
  2. Arfini, F. (2001). Mathematical programming models employed in the analysis of the common agricultural policy. INEA Working Paper No. 9.
  3. Asaadi, M.A. (2017). Economic analysis of deficit irrigation strategies for management of agricultural water resources (case study: Qazvin Plain Irrigation Network). MSc Thesis in Agricultural Economics. Faculty of Agriculture, Tarbiat Modarres University, Tehran. (Persian)
  4. Bakhshi, A., Daneshvar Kakhki, M. and Moqaddasi, R. (2011). Application of positive mathematical planning model to analyze the effects of water price replacement policies in Mashhad Plain. Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development (Science and Technology of Agriculture), 25(3): 284-294. (Persian)
  5. Belali, H. (2010). Effects of pricing and agricultural policy on conservation of groundwater resources: a case study of Bahar Plain. PhD Thesis in Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Tarbiat Modarres University, Tehran. (Persian)
  6. Cai, X. and Rosegrant, M.W. (2004). Irrigation technology choices under hydrologic uncertainty: a case study from Maipo River Basin, Chile. Water Resources Research, 40: 1-10.
  7. Cortignani, R. and Severini, S. (2009). Modeling farm-level adoption of deficit irrigation using positive mathematical programming. Agricultural WaterManagement, 96(12): 1785-1791.
  8. Dinar, A. and Mody, J. (2004). Irrigation water management policies: allocation and pricing principles and implementation experiences. Natural Resource Forum, 28: 112-122.
  9. Dinar, A. and Subraminian, A. (1997). Water pricing experiences: an international perspective. World Bank Technical Paper No. 386. Washington. DC.
  10. Graveline, N. and Mérel, P. (2012). How do farmers adapt to water scarcity? Intensive margin adjustments in Beauce agriculture. Paper Presented at the EcoProd Seminar of INRA. Montpellier: September 2012 and at the SFER Conference, Toulouse.
  11. He, L. (2004). Improving irrigation water allocation efficiency: analysis of alternative policy option in Egypt and Morocco, PhD Thesis, Purdue University, USA.
  12. He, L., Tyner, W.E., Doukkali, R. and Siam, G. (2006). Policy options to improve water allocation efficiency: analysis on Egypt and Morocco. Water International, 31: 320-337.
  13. Hegmatan-Ab Consulting Engineers (2007). Identification of surface and underground water sources in the study area of Ghorveh-Dehgolan. Published Report, Hamadan. (Persian)
  14. Henry de Frahan, B., Buysse, J., Polomé, P., Fernagut, B., Harmignie, O., Lauwers, L., Van Huylenbroeck, G. and Van Meensel, J. (2007). Positive mathematical programming for agriculture and environmental policy analysis: review and practice. Handbook of Operations Research in Natural Resources. pp 129-154.
  15. Howitt R.E., Medellin-Azuara J., MacEwan, D. and Lund, R. (2012). Calibrating disaggregate economic models of agricultural production and water management. Science of the Environmental Modeling and Software, 38: 244-258.
  16. Howitt, R.E. and Hanak, E. (2005). Incremental water market development: the California water sector 1985-2004. Canadian Water Resources Journal, 30(1): 1-10.
  17. Johansson, R.C. (2004). Pricing irrigation water. a literature survey. The World Bank Policy Resource Working Paper, 2449.
  18. Kavosh-Abkhan Consultant Engineers (2011). Justification report on the extension of exploiting limitation on underground water sources in Dehgolan Plain. Tehran. (Persian)
  19. Medellin-Azuara, J., Harou, J.J. and Howitt, R.E. (2012). Predicting farmer responses to water pricing, rationing and subsidies assuming profit maximizing investment in irrigation technology. Science of the Agricultural Water Management, 108: 73-82.
  20. Medellin-Azuara, J., Harou, J.J. and Howitt, R.(2010). Estimating economic value of agricultural water under changing conditions and the effects of spatial aggregation. Science of the Total Environment, 408: 5639-5648.
  21. Mir