عوامل مؤثر بر صادرات محصولات کشاورزی و صنایع غذایی ایران با تأکید بر شاخص رقابت‏پذیری نرخ ارز واقعی ترکیبی

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 نویسندة مسئول و دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد علوم و تحقیقات، تهران، ایران

2 استاد گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران

3 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد علوم و تحقیقات، تهران، ایران

چکیده

ایران از تنوع اقلیمی برخوردار است و یکی از متنوع‏ ترین مناطق جهان از لحاظ پوشش گیاهی به‏ شمار می‏رود؛ و از این ‏رو، تولید بسیاری از محصولات کشاورزی در کشور امکان‌پذیر است. با این همه، اگرچه آمارها حاکی از رشد نسبی صادرات بخش کشاورزی طی سال‏های مختلف است، اما این روند نوسان‏های زیادی دارد و در اکثر سال‌ها، عملکرد صادرات از مقدار پیش‏ بینی ‏شده کمتر است. بر این اساس، در مطالعه حاضر، با تأکید بر شاخص رقابت‌پذیری نرخ ارز، عوامل مؤثر بر تقاضای صادرات محصولات کشاورزی و صنایع غذایی ایران برای دوره زمانی 1991 تا 2014 بررسی و ارزیابی شد. بدین منظور، با محاسبه نرخ ارز واقعی ترکیبی دوجانبه، از الگوی داده‏های ترکیبی استفاده شد. نتایج مطالعه حاکی از تأثیر مثبت و معنی‌دار شاخص نرخ ارز واقعی بر تقاضای صادرات محصولات کشاورزی و صنایع غذایی ایران بود. همچنین، نتایج نشان داد که درآمد ملی کشورهای واردکننده دارای تأثیر مثبت و معنی‌دار بر تقاضای صادرات بوده و اثر آن به ‏مراتب از شاخص رقابت‌پذیری نرخ ارز واقعی ترکیبی بیشتر است. بر اساس نتایج به ‏دست ‏آمده، در الگوی برآوردشده، با یک درصد افزایش در شاخص رقابت‌پذیری نرخ ارز واقعی ترکیبی و درآمد ملی، به ‏ترتیب، تقاضای صادرات به میزان 19/0 و 41/1 درصد افزایش می­یابد. در نهایت، نتایج بیانگر آن بود که برخلاف دو متغیر یادشده، قیمت‏ های نسبی صادراتی تأثیر منفی و معنی‏دار بر تابع صادرات دارند، به‏ گونه‏ ای که طی دوره بلندمدت، با یک درصد افزایش در قیمت‏های نسبی، تقاضای صادرات به‏میزان 78/0 درصد کاهش می­یابد.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

The effective factors on export of agricultural products and food industry of Iran with emphasis on competitiveness index of integrated real exchange rate

نویسندگان [English]

  • Sh. Abnar 1
  • S. S. Hosseini 2
  • R. Moghadasi 3
1 Corresponding Author and PhD Student in Agricultural Economics, Islamic Azad University, Science and Research Branch, Tehran, Iran
2 Professor of Agricultural Economics, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
3 Associate Professor of Agricultural Economics, Islamic Azad University, Science and Research Branch, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

Iran, as a country with considerable climatic variations, is one of the most diverse regions of the world in terms of vegetation. This makes it possible to produce many agricultural products in the country. Although the figures represent relative growth of agricultural exports over several years, the volatility of these facts and figures is great, and in most cases, export performances are annually lower than the year forecast. With this approach, this study aimed at examining and evaluating the factors affecting the Iran’s exports of agricultural products and food industry during 1991-2014, with emphasis on competitiveness index of real exchange rate. For this purpose, the panel data approach was used to calculate the integrated bilateral real exchange rate. The study results showed a significantly positive effect of integrated real exchange rate on the Iranian export of agricultural and food industry products. The results also revealed that national income of importing countries had a significantly positive effect on export demand and its extent was greater than that of the integrated bilateral real exchange rate. Accordingly, with one percent increase in the competitiveness index of integrated bilateral real exchange rate and the national income, export demand increases by 0.19 and 1.41 percent, respectively. Finally, the results indicated that unlike the two aforementioned variables, the relative prices of exports had a significantly negative impact on export demand of Iran, so that during a long run, with one percent increase in the relative prices, export demand would reduce by 0.78 percent.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Integrated Real Exchange Rate
  • Export Demand
  • Agricultural Products and Food Industry
  • panel data
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