موسسه پژوهش های برنامه ریزی، اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه روستایی اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه 1022-4211 33 3 2025 11 22 The Effect of Integrated Scheduling of Production and Distribution on the Profit of Tomato Farms: A Case Study of Beyza County of Iran اثر زمان‏بندی یکپارچه تولید و توزیع بر سود مزارع گوجه‌فرنگی: مطالعه موردی شهرستان بیضا 1 25 132222 10.30490/aead.2025.367359.1649 FA حدیث السادات دبیری دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد اقتصادکشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه شیراز، شیراز، ایران زینب شکوهی استادیار اقتصاد کشاورزی ، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه شیراز، شیراز، ایران منصور زیبایی استاد اقتصاد کشاورزی ، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه شیراز، شیراز، ایران محمد حسن طرازکار دانشیار اقتصاد کشاورزی ، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه شیراز، شیراز، ایران Journal Article 2025 01 09 Introduction: Price fluctuations in the agricultural sector are influenced by various factors, such as low shelf life, high degree of perishability, large volume, seasonality, and dependence on weather conditions. These characteristics make the agricultural sector more susceptible to price changes compared to the industrial sector. Managing price fluctuations of agricultural products is crucial for increasing the profitability of farmers. This can be achieved through integrated planning of production and distribution within the sector. Making separate decisions in production and distribution does issues not necessarily lead to optimal profit maximization. Neglecting the integrated planning of production and distribution in the supply chain of agricultural products with special features can result in a decrease in product quality, low profitability for farmers, and consumer dissatisfaction. The concept of integrated production and distribution planning is a strategic approach that aims to improve competitiveness in the production and distribution of goods and services. This involves making coordinated and coherent decisions to meet customer needs and satisfaction, while also optimizing other supply chain objectives such as costs and profits. By utilizing a mathematical programming model, businesses can identify the most profitable market and make informed decisions about the flow of materials, goods, and financial information throughout the supply chain. This includes suppliers, manufacturers, warehouses, and retailers, with the goal of optimizing production and supply in terms of quantity, time, and location. Therefore, this study aimed at investigating the impact of integrated scheduling of production and distribution on the profitability of tomato farmers in Beyza (County) region of Iran. Materials and Methods: In this study, a mathematical programming model was utilized to achieve the above-mentioned goal. Then, according to the average temperature information and the harvesting limitations of the region, a different strategy for planting and harvesting tomatoes was extracted. To accurately determine the expected price, it is necessary to consider both the trend component and the seasonal behavior of the price. This can be achieved by first calculating the actual price and then, incorporating the lowest, highest, and average prices for each week into the model. These three scenarios, representing optimistic, pessimistic, and average expectations, will provide a comprehensive understanding of the expected price. So, the markets analyzed in this study were selected based on the availability of price information in each county. These markets included West Azerbaijan, Ilam, Bushehr, Razavi Khorasan, Sistan and Baluchistan, Kurdistan, Kerman, Kermanshah, Lorestan, Mazandaran, Markazi, Hormozgan, Hamadan, Fars, and Tehran provinces. Results and Discussion: The study results showed that for small farms, the profit varied greatly depending on the price scenarios. In the pessimistic scenario, the farmer could earn 600 million IRI rials per hectare by using the third tomato strategy and selling both harvests in the Bushehr market. However, in the optimistic scenario, the farmer could earn 3690 million IRI rials per hectare by using the first strategy and selling the first and second harvests in Bushehr and Kermanshah markets, respectively. The selected small farmer with one hectare of land earned a realized profit of 14650 million IRI rials per hectare by selling at the farm gate in 2023. Comparing the optimization results of the model with the average expected price scenario, it was evident that the potential profit increased by 40 percent. In the group of large farmers, it was determined that the most profitable harvesting strategy would be on a weekly basis. In the pessimistic price scenario, the estimated profit for choosing tomato strategy 18 was 8450 million IRI rials per hectare. In the moderate and optimistic scenarios, the estimated profit for choosing tomato strategy 16 was 2560 and 4776 million IRI rials per hectare, respectively. <span style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.0pt; line-height: 107%; font-family: 'Times New Roman',serif; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">Conclusion and Suggestions: <span style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.0pt; line-height: 107%; font-family: 'Times New Roman',serif; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">The study results showed that there were significant differences in profits among the three groups of farmers, depending on the price scenarios; for instance, small farms had much higher profits in the optimistic scenario compared to the pessimistic one, with a difference of over six times. This could be attributed to varying price expectations, which in turn would influence planting and harvesting strategies. Other factors such as yield, harvest time, and price levels also contributed to the differences in profitability. This highlighted the high volatility of profits in the market for this particular product. However, due to the nature of agricultural production, especially for products like tomatoes, it is not always possible to make optimal decisions based on real market prices. As a solution, it is recommended to implement various types of income insurance to manage market risk for this group of farmers. This is crucial, because fluctuations in net income can decrease farmers’ motivation to improve production technologies. In addition, agricultural extension workers may play a crucial role in facilitating communication with farmers, particularly those who own large farms. Through this collaboration, the findings of studies might be effectively disseminated and the strategies for utilizing them could be implemented. This connection between production and research centers has the potential to significantly increase farmers’ income and promote sustainable development. <span dir="RTL" lang="FA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: FA;">یکی از چالش‌های پیش روی کشاورزان، به‏ ویژه تولیدکنندگان محصولات فسادپذیر، تغییرات درآمد در نتیجة نوسان‏‌های بالای قیمت این محصولات است. کشاورزان، بیشتر برای رسیدن به حداکثر سودآوری، تمرکز بر بیشینهسازی تولید دارند، در حالی که با توجه به نوسان‏‌های موجود در بازار، حداکثر تولید لزوماً منتج به حداکثر سودآوری نمی‌شود. بنابراین، هدف مطالعة حاضر بررسی اثر مدیریت هم‏زمان تولید و نوسان‏‌های قیمت در بازار با استفاده از الگوی یکپارچه تولید و توزیع بر سود گوجه ‏فرنگی‏‌کاران در نظر گرفته شد. داده‌های مورد نیاز از مزارع گوجه‌فرنگی منطقه (شهرستان) بیضا در استان فارس در سال 1402 از طریق پرسشنامه جمع‌آوری شد. سپس، با توجه به متوسط دما در منطقه، راهبردهای مختلف کاشت و برداشت گوجه فرنگی استخراج و با به‏ کارگیری مدل برنامه‏ ریزی خطی با سناریوهای مختلف قیمت انتظاری، سودآورترین راهبرد به‏ همراه بازار مناسب شناسایی شد. <span dir="RTL" lang="AR-SA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">نتایج پژوهش نشان داد که <span dir="RTL" lang="AR-SA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">تفاوت سود میان سناریوهای مختلف قیمتی برای هر سه گروه کشاورزان بالاست، به‏ گونه‌‏ا<span dir="RTL" lang="FA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: FA;">ی که سودآوری<span dir="RTL" lang="FA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;"> <span dir="RTL" lang="AR-SA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">در نتیجه زمان‏‌بندی یکپارچه تولید و توزیع به‏ طور متوسط برای کشاورزان کوچک، متوسط و بزرگ‏ مقیاس، به ‏ترتیب، چهل، 25 و 55 درصد نسبت به سود تحقق ‏یافتة کشاورزان نماینده افزایش می‌یابد<span dir="RTL" lang="FA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: FA;">؛ و <span dir="RTL" lang="AR-SA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">حتی در شرایطی که با فرض دسترسی به یک بازار (بازار شیراز)، کشاورزارن فقط به انتخاب بهینه در میان <span dir="RTL" lang="FA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: FA;">راهبرد<span dir="RTL" lang="FA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;"> <span dir="RTL" lang="AR-SA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">های تولید بپردازند، می‌توانند از سود بیشتری نسبت به <span dir="RTL" lang="FA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: FA;">راهبرد<span dir="RTL" lang="FA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;"> <span dir="RTL" lang="AR-SA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">انتخابی خود بهره‌مند شوند.<span dir="RTL" lang="AR-SA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;"> <span dir="RTL" lang="AR-SA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">از این‌‏رو، پیشنهاد می‌شود که با کمک مروجان کشاورزی، ضمن ارتباط با کشاورزان به‏‌ویژه کشاورزان بزرگ ‏مقیاس، نتایج حاصل از پژوهش‌های صورت‏گرفته و چگونگی بهره‌مندی از آن تبیین شود تا از این رهگذر، با پیوند میان مراکز تولید و پژوهش، بتوان به سطح درآمد کشاورزان و توسعه پایدار این بخش کمک کرد. همچنین، با توجه به نتایج پژوهش حاضر مبنی بر نوسان بالای سود در سناریوهای مختلف قیمت انتظاری و در نتیجه، مخاطره (ریسک) بالای درآمدی برای کشاورزان، پیشنهاد می‌شود که با به‏‌کارگیری مدل‌های مختلف هماهنگی عمودی در زنجیره عرضه گوجه‌فرنگی از جمله استفاده از کشاورزی قراردادی، به مدیریت این مخاطره کمک شود.

http://aead.agri-peri.ac.ir/article_132222_3baab1d820015e693027e49f00b91b37.pdf