موسسه پژوهش های برنامه ریزی، اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه روستایی اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه 1022-4211 33 1 2025 05 22 The COVID-19 Pandemic and Changes in Red Meat Consumption Pattern in Iran: A Case Study of Tehran City همه‌‏گیری بیماری کووید 19 و تغییر الگوی مصرف گوشت قرمز در ایران: مطالعه موردی شهر تهران 1 28 131272 10.30490/aead.2024.364670.1579 FA سارا علی رحیمی دانش‌آموخته دکتری اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران. حامد رفیعی استادیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکدة کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران. 0000-0002-1279-6830 Journal Article 2024 01 12 Introduction: Since the onset of COVID-19, individuals worldwide have been affected, altering consumer behaviors and preferences in food selection and consumption due to economic and social disruptions caused by this virus. The virus has significantly affected food systems globally. This includes disruptions in food security, loss of livelihoods and income, increased inequalities, and inflexible prices. The closure of restaurants and food-related businesses has led to a sharp decline in demand for perishable foods such as dairy, fresh fruits, and chocolates, resulting in decreased meat value. Throughout human history, meat and meat-based products originated from cattle, poultry, or fish have been the primary food source for people. These products, rich in high protein levels, vitamins, and minerals, play a crucial role in human diets. Therefore, consuming meat as an essential dietary component is frequently recommended for consumers. When included in a healthy diet, the meat products significantly contribute to a better and healthier life. Many critical parameters, from economic to social and psychological well-being, have been affected by this pandemic. Iran, too, has been influenced by this disease and its consequences in producing and consuming various food items. This has led to changes in Iranian consumer preferences and behaviors. This study aimed at examining the influential factors on changes in the share of red meat expenses during the COVID-19 pandemic period and the pattern of red meat consumption in Tehran city. Materials and Methods: Given the significance and necessity of the red meat consumption in household dietary patterns, as well as assessing the factors affecting the change in the share of expenses for this product during the pandemic, using five options including: 1) "Has significantly decreased", 2) "Has decreased", 3) "Has not changed", 4) "Has increased", and 5) "Has significantly increased", an examination was conducted. Since respondents had more than two options for selection and a sequential nature existed among the categories, the Ordered Logit Model (OLM) was used as the most efficient model. This model examines the impact of explanatory variables on the amount of red meat purchased. In addition, the effect of each variable on the likelihood of households falling into one of the five stated groups was considered. The statistical population of the study consisted of families residing in Tehran city. The required information was gathered by completing questionnaires online and distributing them via the internet platform in 2021-2022. The sample size, determined using the Cochran formula, was 384. However, 400 questionnaires were completed and examined to increase accuracy and reduce errors. According to objectives of the study, packages of software such as STATA 17 and SPSS 26 were utilized to assess and measure the factors affecting the share of expenses on the red meat during the COVID-19 pandemic. Results and Discussion: Based on the estimations of OLM, the final effect of freshness and safety of food items indicated that the probability of consumers considering this factor highly critical being included in the last group had increased by 0.0009 units. Conversely, the consumers who did not prioritize freshness and safety of food had decreased their likelihood of being placed in the first group by 0.004 units. Emphasizing easy access to stores or markets led to a greater probability of these individuals being placed in the groups 3 to 5 and a decreased probability of placement in the groups 1 and 2. The final effects of the lower prices variable suggested that the consumers prioritizing lower and more affordable prices had a 0.0007-unit increased likelihood of being in the last group. In contrast, their probability of being in the first group was reduced by 0.003 units. Additionally, as the share of expenses allocated to poultry and meat in the household food basket increased, the probability of these households being in the first and second groups decreased by 0.04 and 0.36 units, respectively. Meanwhile, the likelihood of these households being in the groups 3 to 5 increased by 0.27, 0.11, and 0.01 units, respectively. The final effect of the share of expenses on milk and dairy products during the COVID-19 pandemic period also indicated that as the share of expenses allocated to these products in the household food basket increased, the probability of these households being in the first and second groups decreased by 0.004 and 0.038 units respectively. Meanwhile, the likelihood of these households being in the groups 3 to 5 increased by 0.02, 0.01, and 0.001 units, respectively. Conclusion and Suggestions: The descriptive statistical results indicated that approximately 57 percent of respondents did not change their share of expenses on the red meat during the COVID-19 pandemic period. However, about 28 and 14 percent of individuals believed that their red meat expenses had decreased and increased, respectively. The income variable did not show a significant effect in the OLM on the dependent variable. In the final analysis, the results demonstrated that higher-income families increased the red meat expenses during the pandemic. Based on the OLM results, as educational levels increase, there is a noticeable decrease in the inclination towards purchasing and consuming the red meat during the COVID-19 pandemic period. Additionally, the variables such as responsibility for grocery shopping and preference for dining out significantly and negatively affected the dependent variable. Moreover, the factors related to easy access to markets or stores significantly and positively impacted the increase in the share of expenses on the red meat, chicken, milk, and their sub-products during the COVID-19 pandemic period. To maintain the red meat’s position in dietary habits during this period, it is recommended to develop online platforms, implement standardized labeling, and adopt appropriate packaging aligned with meat quality. In addition, for the individuals who refrain from consuming meat for reasons other than economic factors, designing appealing stands in grocery stores and implementing effective advertising campaigns for alternative meat products during the COVID-19 pandemic period are also suggested. از زمان شیوع کووید 19، زندگی همه افراد در سراسر جهان تحت تأثیر قرار گرفت. بخش کشاورزی و غذایی یکی از مهمترین بخش‌هایی است که به‏ علت اجرا شدن محدودیت‌ها، تعطیلی‌ها و قرنطینه در اغلب کشورها و ایران، از این بیماری تأثیر پذیرفت. از این‏‌رو، رفتار مصرف‌کنندگان و ترجیحات در انتخاب و مصرف مواد غذایی نیز در راستای اختلالات اقتصادی- اجتماعی ناشی از این ویروس تغییر کرد. از گذشته تا به امروز، یکی از مهمترین و ضروری‌ترین اقلام غذایی مصرفی مردم گوشت قرمز بوده است. هدف مطالعه حاضر بررسی مؤلفه‌های مؤثر بر روند تغییر سهم مخارج گوشت قرمز در دوره همه‏‌گیری بیماری کرونا و الگوی مصرف گوشت بود. بدین منظور، داده‌های پژوهش، با تکمیل چهارصد نمونه پرسشنامه از طریق توزیع برخط (آنلاین) بین ساکنان شهر تهران، در سال 1400، گردآوری شد. روند تغییر سهم مخارج گوشت قرمز در این دوره از سوی مصرف‌کنندگان یادشده در پنج گروه «بسیار کاهش یافته»، «کاهش یافته»، «تغییر نکرده»، «افزایش یافته» و «بسیار افزایش یافته» تقسیم شد. بر این اساس، روند تغییر سهم مخارج گوشت قرمز حدود 28 درصد از پاسخ‏گویان در دوره همه‌‏گیری بیماری کرونا کاهشی و حدود چهارده درصد نیز افزایشی بوده است. نتایج به‌کارگیری الگوی لاجیت ترتیبی نشان داد که در دوره یادشده، متغیرهای سطح تحصیلات، مسئولیت خرید مواد غذایی و صرف غذا در رستوران اثر منفی و معنی‏‌دار بر افزایش سطوح سهم مخارج گوشت قرمز دارند، در حالی که اثر متغیرهای دسترسی آسان به فروشگاه‌های غذایی، سهم مخارج گوشت مرغ و شیر و فرآورده‌های آن مثبت و معنی‌‏دار بر افزایش سطوح سهم مخارج گوشت قرمز است. بنابراین، برای حفظ جایگاه گوشت قرمز در سبد غذایی در این دوره، توسعه سکوهای برخط، برچسب‌گذاری‌های استاندارد و بسته‌بندی‌های متناسب با کیفیت گوشت پیشنهاد می‏‌شود؛ و همچنین، برای افرادی که به دلایلی به‏ جز اقتصادی گوشت مصرف نمی‌کنند، شایسته است که به طراحی سازه‌‏های نگهدارنده یا استندهای جذاب در فروشگاه‌های مواد غذایی و تبلیغات مؤثر برای مصرف محصولات جایگزین گوشت قرمز در این دوره نیز پرداخته شود..

http://aead.agri-peri.ac.ir/article_131272_bb9bafb58a2ef97f3dae193025704518.pdf

موسسه پژوهش های برنامه ریزی، اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه روستایی اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه 1022-4211 33 1 2025 05 22 Economic Impacts of Operators’ Non-Agricultural Employment on Agricultural Sector in Sabzevar County of Iran آثار اقتصادی اشتغال به فعالیت‌های غیرکشاورزی بهره‌برداران بر بخش کشاورزی شهرستان سبزوار 29 59 132148 10.30490/aead.2024.365589.1594 FA مهدیه سالاری دانش‌‏آموخته کارشناسی ارشد اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، مشهد، ایران. آرش دوراندیش دانشیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران. 0000-0001-7858-6644 محمود دانشورکاخکی استاد گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، مشهد، ایران. فاطمه سخی دانش‌‏آموخته دکتری اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران. Journal Article 2024 04 25 Introduction: Many researchers and policymakers used to believe that the rural economy in developing countries was synonymous with agriculture. This perspective suggested that rural households derived most of their income from food production and the export of agricultural products. However, this view has evolved over recent years. Today, researchers are increasingly recognizing that income for the rural households comes from a variety of activities, with the non-agricultural sector playing a significant role. The non-agricultural sector has gained recognition as a crucial tool for reducing rural poverty and providing lucrative employment opportunities for rural labors. In Iran, non-agricultural activities in rural areas have expanded significantly due to recent droughts, water resources crisis, and the growing inclination of rural youth to pursue non-agricultural jobs. According to the 2017 Population and Housing Census, 49.7 percent of rural employees in Iran were engaged in the non-agricultural sector. As of the 2016 Population and Housing Census, approximately 6,434,501 people lived in urban areas, which accounted for 1.8 percent of the country's total population. Within that figure, 4,700,924 resided in urban areas across the nation, while 1,733,121 lived in the urban regions of Razavi Khorasan province. The significant difference in population is largely attributed to inadequate agricultural conditions and limited job opportunities in the province's villages. In Razavi Khorasan province, employment in the agricultural sector accounted for 22 percent of jobs in 2016, dropping to 19.3 percent by 2017. A review of existing studies indicated that no comprehensive research on the economic impacts of non-agricultural activities on the agricultural sector, particularly within Iran, was conducted. Given the importance of understanding the economic implications of non-agricultural employment for the agricultural sector— and considering the vital role of agriculture in the country's economic growth and food security— this research aimed at evaluating the economic effects of non-agricultural activities on agricultural operators in the rural areas of Sabzevar County of Iran. Materials and Methods: The required data were collected through a questionnaire using a simple random sampling method from 208 farmers in the county during the crop year 2021-2022. For this purpose, the system of Seemingly Unrelated Regression Equations (SURE) was applied. The dependent variables included agricultural labor employment, farmers' income, and the amount of investment made in the agricultural sector by the farmers of Sabzevar. The concerned independent variables included the level of labor wages, income from non-agricultural activities, the extent of area under cultivation, the amount of facilities received (reflecting the interest rate on these facilities), and the diversity of agricultural products (including crops, horticulture as well as livestock and poultry) produced by the farmers of Sabzevar County. Results and Discussion: An examination of the employment structure and income of farmers’ households in Sabzevar County revealed notable findings from a survey of 208 farmers. Among these, 112 farmers (53.8 percent) were engaged in the non-agricultural activities, while 96 farmers (46.2percent) earned their income solely from agricultural sub-sectors, including livestock, agriculture, and horticulture. The study results indicated that in the wage labor employment equation, agricultural income and labor wages negatively impact the level of labor employment; conversely, the amount invested, income from the non-agricultural activities and the total area of agricultural and horticultural crops had significantly positive effects on the labor employment. In the equation concerning the agricultural income, the variables of the area under cultivation, monthly income from the non-agricultural activities, investment in agriculture, and the diversity of agricultural products showed positive effects. Additionally, an analysis of the equation with investment as the dependent variable showed a negative relationship with the interest rate of received loans; however, it maintained a significantly positive relationship with other factors such as the amount of facilities received, the agricultural income, and the income from non-agricultural activities. Overall, the results from estimating the system of Seemingly Unrelated Regression Equations (SURE) indicated that the non-agricultural income positively and significantly influenced the labor employment, the agricultural income, and the level of investment in the agricultural sector. Conclusion and Suggestions: Raising the income levels of the rural people and farmers leads to poverty reduction, increased consumption expenditures among rural households, and enhanced investment and employment in the agricultural sector. Therefore, it is recommended that the government create and strengthen appropriate production and service infrastructure in the rural areas. This will provide the necessary conditions for the diversification and expansion of non-agricultural activities along with the agricultural ones. To enhance effectiveness, it is important to emphasize regional indigenous capacities and provide job creation and entrepreneurship consulting services. Given the positive impact of financial facilities and the negative influence of interest rates on investment in the agricultural sector, policymakers should aim to expand investment in agriculture. This can be achieved by offering financial facilities at reasonable interest rates and easing the process of obtaining these facilities. درآمد خانوارهای روستایی از مجموعه‌ای از فعالیت‌ها به‌‏دست می‌آید که یکی از این فعالیت‌ها مربوط به بخش غیرکشاورزی است. در سال‌های اخیر، بخش غیرکشاورزی به‏‌گونه‌ای گسترده به‏‌عنوان رویکردی ابزاری برای کاهش فقر روستایی و ایجاد اشتغال برای نیروی کار روستایی شناخته شده است. در ایران، به‌‏علت خشکسالی‌های اخیر، بحران منابع آب و گرایش جوانان روستایی به فعالیت‌های غیرکشاورزی، این‏گونه فعالیت‌ها در مناطق روستایی رشد زیادی داشته است و بر مبنای سرشماری نفوس و مسکن در سال 1395، 49/7 درصد از شاغلان مناطق روستایی در کل کشور در بخش غیرکشاورزی شاغل بوده‌اند. از این‌رو، در پژوهش حاضر، به بررسی آثار اقتصادی اشتغال به فعالیت‌های غیرکشاورزی بهره‌برداران بر بخش کشاورزی در شهرستان سبزوار پرداخته شد. داده‌ها با تکمیل پرسشنامه و روش ‌نمونه‌گیری تصادفی ساده در دسترس از 208 نفر از کشاورزان در سال زراعی 1400-1399جمع‌آوری و با استفاده از روش اقتصادسنجی نظام معادلات به‌‏ظاهر نامرتبط (SURE) تحلیل شدند. یافته‌های پژوهش نشان داد که میزان درآمد فعالیت غیرکشاورزی بر متغیرهای اشتغال نیروی کار (دستمزدی و خانوادگی)، میزان درآمد کشاورزی و سرمایه‌گذاری در بخش کشاورزی شهرستان سبزوار اثر مثبت و معنی‌دار دارد. از آنجا‌ که بر اساس نتایج به‏‌دست‌‏آمده، ارتقای سطح درآمد روستاییان و کشاورزان به کاهش فقر، افزایش مخارج مصرفی خانوارهای روستایی، افزایش سرمایه‌گذاری و اشتغال در بخش کشاورزی می‌انجامد، پیشنهاد می‌شود که دولت، با ایجاد و تقویت زیرساخت‌های مناسب تولیدی و خدماتی در مناطق روستایی، شرایط لازم برای تنوع‌بخشی و گسترش فعالیت‌های غیرکشاورزی در کنار فعالیت‌های کشاورزی را فراهم آورد که البته، با تأکید بر ظرفیت‌های بومی منطقه‌ای، همراه با ارائه خدمات مشاوره‌ای در زمینه ایجاد شغل و کارآفرینی،این رویکرد می‌تواند مؤثرتر واقع شود.

http://aead.agri-peri.ac.ir/article_132148_37029675d2c8354b07e04bbd29c9c339.pdf

موسسه پژوهش های برنامه ریزی، اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه روستایی اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه 1022-4211 33 1 2025 05 22 Investigating Factors Affecting Agricultural Exchanges between Iran and Shanghai Cooperation Organization Member Countries بررسی عوامل موثر بر مبادلات بخش کشاورزی ایران با کشورهای عضو سازمان همکاری شانگهای 61 92 132160 10.30490/aead.2025.366211.1606 FA ابوالفضل محمودی دانشیار اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران. 0000-0002-7662-9812 غلامرضا یاوری دانشیار بخش علوم اقتصادی، دانشکده اقتصاد، مدیریت و حسابداری، دانشگاه یزد، یزد، ایران. سعید یزدانی استاد اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران. 0000-0003-1143-5467 فرید اجلالی دانشیار هواشناسی کشاورزی، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران. 0000-0001-5483-9715 یداله آذرین فر دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران. 0000-0002-8046-8169 Journal Article 2024 06 27 Introduction: Iran's membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) has provided an opportunity for political, economic, and trade cooperation. The study aimed at examining the macro variables affecting exports and trade balance in the agricultural sector between Iran and SCO member countries (India, Kazakhstan, China, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Russia, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan) using the gravity model and panel data approach during 2003-2022. Materials and Methods: The gravity model was employed to determine the effects of main variables on agricultural exports and trade balance between Iran and SCO member countries. Based on the results of Limer, Fisher and Hausman tests, the export pattern of Iran's agriculture was estimated using the fixed effects model, and the trade balance of Iran's agriculture was estimated using the two-way random effects model (cross-sectional and time). Research models were estimated using the Estimated Generalized Least Squares (EGLS) method. Results and Discussion: The results indicated that the variables of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of SCO member countries, the value added of Iran's agricultural sector, and the real exchange rate had significantly positive impacts on Iran’s agricultural exports to SCO member countries; in addition, the variables such as the price ratio of Iran’s agricultural exports to SCO member countries, fluctuations in the real exchange rate, and the Liner similarity index had significantly negative impacts on agricultural exports to SCO member countries. The estimation results of factors affecting the trade balance of Iran’s agricultural sector also showed that the GDP per capita of SCO member countries, the price of agricultural exports of member countries, and the price of Iran’s agricultural exports had significantly positive effects on the trade balance of Iran’s agricultural sector with the SCO member countries. Given the positive impact of the value added of Iran’s agricultural sector on Iran’s exports, it is important to plan for directing agricultural sector revenues towards the development of production and export infrastructure. It is also crucial to enhance the export regime towards countries where Iran’s export prices are lower compared to their import prices. Conclusion and Suggestions: Based on the results, the following suggestions are proposed to enhance the agricultural exports and improve the trade balance of the agricultural sector of Iran with the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) member countries: The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of SCO member countries has a significantly positive impact on Iran’s agricultural exports to these countries. Therefore, the countries with higher income and increasing growth can be considered as potential markets for Iranian agricultural exports. It is essential to focus on expanding exports to the countries with lower income differentials with Iran (such as Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, India, and China). Given the positive impact of the value-added of Iran’s agricultural sector on agricultural exports, planning to direct agricultural sector revenues towards developing production infrastructure is recommended. This highlights the role of improving agricultural production in reducing dependence on imports and expanding exports. Supporting production and farmers to facilitate and streamline the agricultural production cycle and strengthen the agricultural production infrastructure are emphasized. Price support policy, income support policy, and support policy for the development of agricultural processing industries can facilitate export planning and development. The price ratio of Iranian agricultural exports to the SCO member countries also negatively affects Iran’s agricultural exports and trade balance with these countries. Therefore, initially, expanding export opportunities to the countries where Iran’s export prices are lower than their import prices is recommended. Subsequently, reducing the total cost of the product to lower Iran’s export prices can be pursued. For example, reducing transportation costs by selecting countries geographically closer to Iran is emphasized. هدف کلی پژوهش حاضر بررسی عوامل مؤثر بر صادرات و تراز تجاری بخش کشاورزی ایران و کشورهای عضو سازمان همکاری شانگهای (SCO) با استفاده از مدل جاذبه و رویکرد داده‌های پانل در دوره 2003 تا 2022 بود. بدین منظور، الگوی صادرات کشاورزی ایران با استفاده از الگوی اثرات ثابت مقطعی و نیز الگوی تراز تجاری بخش کشاورزی ایران با استفاده از الگوی اثرات تصادفی دوطرفه (مقطعی و زمانی) برآورد شد. بر اساس نتایج پژوهش، تولید ناخالص داخلی (GDP) کشورهای عضو SCO، ارزش افزوده بخش کشاورزی ایران و نرخ ارز واقعی تأثیر مثبت و معنی‏دار بر صادرات محصولات کشاورزی ایران بدین کشورها داشته و برعکس، اثر متغیرهای نسبت قیمت صادرات کشاورزی ایران به قیمت صادرات کشاورزی کشورهای عضو SCO، نوسان‌‏های نرخ ارز واقعی و شاخص مشابهت لیندر بر صادرات محصولات کشاورزی ایران بدین کشورها منفی و معنی‌‏دار بوده است. نتایج برآورد عوامل مؤثر بر تراز تجاری بخش کشاورزی ایران نیز نشان داد که سرانه تولید ناخالص داخلی کشورهای عضو SCO، قیمت صادرات کشاورزی کشورهای عضو SCO و قیمت صادرات کشاورزی ایران اثر مثبت و معنی‌‏دار بر تراز تجاری بخش کشاورزی ایران با این کشورها دارد. با توجه به تأثیر مثبت ارزش افزوده بخش کشاورزی ایران بر صادرات بخش کشاورزی، برنامه‌ریزی در راستای هدایت درآمدهای بخش کشاورزی به سمت توسعه زیرساخت‌های تولیدی و صادراتی و توسعه رژیم صادراتی به سمت کشورهایی قابل توصیه است که قیمت صادراتی ایران نسبت به قیمت وارداتی آنها کمتر باشد..

http://aead.agri-peri.ac.ir/article_132160_c4f67f7d632843a4fc5dbe9c090df9df.pdf

موسسه پژوهش های برنامه ریزی، اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه روستایی اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه 1022-4211 33 1 2025 05 22 Investigating the Welfare Effects of Price Increases on Selected Imported Agricultural Products in Iran بررسی آثار رفاهی افزایش قیمت محصولات وارداتی منتخب کشاورزی در ایران 93 129 132197 10.30490/aead.2025.367344.1646 FA حسین نوروزی استادیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران. 0000-0002-6638-2078 علی کیانی راد دانشیار موسسه پژوهش‌های برنامه‌ریزی، اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه روستایی. تهران، ایران. 0000-0002-9295-7613 Journal Article 2024 12 19 Introduction: Given the amount of agricultural imports and the significant share of these products in total agricultural imports and total imports of Iran, it can be inferred that the increase in global food prices in international markets will be transmitted to domestic markets and affect consumer spending. Therefore, an issue that has not been mentioned in economic analyses is the vulnerability of consumers in Iran as a result of the increase in global food prices and the shocks created in the food supply. Therefore, in order to protect vulnerable groups, the government should support them to offset or at least reduce the negative effects of price increases. Materials and Methods: In the present study, in order to investigate the vulnerability of Iranian consumers, the required data of import amounts of six commodity groups/goods including cereal group (rice, wheat, corn and barley), meat group (sheep gizzard, beef and chicken meat), edible oil group (soybean oil, sunflower oil, corn oil and butter), tea, cheese and sugar were extracted and to calculate the price and income coefficients of food and as a result, the price and income elasticity (expenditure) of food, the Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System (QUAIDS) was estimated. In the next step, the Compensatory Variation (CV) criterion was used to simulate the effects of the four defined scenarios and the welfare effects of the four scenarios were investigated. These four scenarios were defined as follows: 1) change in global food prices in the period 2000-2021, 2) increase in production costs due to the increase in the price of imported inputs in the production of the studied product groups, 3) increase in prices due to the removal of the preferred exchange, and 4) increase in the global food price index after Russian attack on Ukraine. Results and Discussion: In scenario 1, if the price of edible oils increases by 11.9 percent and the interactions between food items are taken into account, expenditures will increase by 7.508 percent of primary expenditures and the households will be in a worse welfare situation. As shown by the results of applying the scenario of a 6.21 percent change in meat prices, as a result of this change, the CV index is equal to 5.334 percent of food consumption expenditures; and as shown by the results of applying the scenario of a 3.18 percent change in grain prices, this will lead to a change in the CV index by 2.981 percent of food consumption expenditures. The results of a 21.6 percent increase in cheese prices indicate that in this case, households are also in a worse welfare situation and their expenditures increase by 5.025 percent of total food expenditures. The results of calculating CV index for sugar indicate that as a result of a 6.40 percent increase, it will be equal to 4.630 percent of food consumption expenditures. Furthermore, the results of a 3.65 percent increase in the price of tea indicate that in this case, household welfare decreases due to the increase in price, such that their expenditures increase by 2.564 percent of total food expenditures. In Scenario 2, the average rate of change in the price of imported inputs is defined as a 12 percent increase in the cost of production of the studied goods. The results showed that due to a 12 percent increase in the cost of production of the 6 commodity groups/goods under study, expenditures would increase by 9.882 percent of primary expenditures and the households would be in a worse situation in terms of welfare. The Scenario 3 was defined as follows: First, the increase in the price of goods in June 2022 compared to May 2022 was calculated. However, since not all price changes were due to the removal of the preferred exchange rate, in this scenario, the removal of the preferential exchange rate was netted. In this way, the average increase in energy prices and labor wages was deducted from the increase in prices in June compared to May 2022. After that, it was determined that the average price changes due to the removal of the preferred exchange rate indicated a 34.9 percent increase in the prices of the concerned goods. Therefore, due to an average increase of 34.9 percent in the prices of the studied commodity groups/goods due to the removal of the preferred exchange rate, household expenditures would increase by 23.954 percent of primary expenditures and the households would be in a worse situation in terms of welfare. In fact, it can be stated that 24 percent of the household's initial expenditures in the form of money must be paid to the consumer so that the secondary price will be in a situation similar to the initial situation (before the scenario is implemented) and the reduction in welfare resulting from the removal of the preferred exchange rate will be compensated. Scenario 4 was defined as a change in global food prices due to the Russian-Ukraine war, indicating a 9.28 percent increase in the prices of the studied goods. In fact, the CV index shows the change in household spending after applying the scenario to the initial utility curve. The amount of the CV index indicates how much money the consumer must pay to have the same secondary price as the initial situation (before the scenario was implemented). Therefore, due to an average increase of 9.28 percent in the prices of the concerned commodity groups/goods during the Russian-Ukraine war, household spending increased by 6.302 percent of the initial spending, leading to a decrease in household welfare. Conclusion and Suggestions: The study findings confirm that the most negative welfare effects were caused by the preferred exchange rate, which on average caused an increase of about 24 percent in the initial expenses of households. Therefore, considering that the effects of removing the preferred exchange can now be better measured, the government should review the adopted policies and, if necessary, compensate the well-being of households that has decreased due to the removal of the preferred exchange rate by redefining more targeted and precise policies. In fact, economic policies should be designed in such a way that an optimal combination of justice and efficiency is realized and the negative welfare effects of the examined scenarios are compensated by direct payments or subsidies for low-income groups. با توجه به اهمیت تأمین غذا در فرآیند توسعه اقتصادی، بحث امینت غذایی در کشورهای در حال توسعه به‌‏طور جدی مطرح است. در این زمینه، قیمت مواد غذایی به‏‌عنوان یکی از مهم‏ترین مؤلفه‌‏های مؤثر بر عرضه و تقاضای محصولات غذایی و کشاورزی همواره در کانون توجه سیاست‌گذاران قرار دارد. از این‌رو، در مطالعه حاضر، به بررسی آسیب‌پذیری مصرف‌کنندگان ایرانی از افزایش قیمت محصولات کشاورزی وارداتی پرداخته شد. بدین منظور، ابتدا مقادیر واردات گروه‌های کالایی غلات (شامل برنج، گندم، ذرت و جو)، گوشت (شامل گوشت گوسفند، گوشت گاو و گوشت مرغ)، روغن‌های خوراکی (شامل روغن سویا، روغن آفتابگردان، روغن ذرت و کره) به‌‏همراه سه کالای چای، پنیر و شکر استخراج شدند. سپس، برآورد کشش‌های قیمتی و درآمدی (مخارج) مواد غذایی یادشده در چارچوب نظام تقاضای تقریباً ایده‌آل درجه دوم (QUAIDS) صورت گرفت. در مرحله بعد، با استفاده از داده‌های سازمان خواربار و کشاورزی (فائو) در زمینه محصولات وارداتی و معیار تغییرات جبرانی (CV)، آثار رفاهی آن بر اساس چهار سناریو برای دوره 2021-2000 بررسی شد. در پژوهش حاضر، سناریوهای چهارگانه بدین صورت تعریف شدند: 1) تغییر قیمت جهانی مواد غذایی، 2) افزایش هزینه‌های تولید ناشی از افزایش قیمت نهاده‌های وارداتی در تولید گروه‌های کالایی مورد بررسی، 3) افزایش قیمت ناشی از حذف ارز ترجیحی و 4) افزایش شاخص قیمت جهانی مواد غذایی پس از حمله روسیه به اوکراین. یافته‌های پژوهش نشان داد که از میان سناریوهای یادشده، بیشترین اثرات منفی رفاهی ناشی از حذف ارز ترجیحی بوده که به‏طور متوسط، باعث افزایش حدود 24 درصدی مخارج خانوارها شده است. از آنجا که اکنون آثار سیاست حذف ارز ترجیحی قابل اندازه‌گیری است، سیاست‌گذار می‌تواند با بازنگری این سیاست و یا در صورت نیاز، با اتخاذ سیاست‌های مکمل آن، به جبران اثرات منفی این سیاست بپردازد. البته، سیاست‌های اقتصادی مکمل باید به‌گونه‌ای طراحی شوند که ترکیبی بهینه از عدالت و کارآیی تحقق یابد و آثار منفی رفاهی سناریوهای مورد بررسی به‌‏ویژه برای گروه‌های کم‏درآمد، با بهره‏‌گیری از روش پرداخت‌های مستقیم، تأمین کالابرگ یا سایر روش‌‏های پرداخت یارانه، جبران شود.

http://aead.agri-peri.ac.ir/article_132197_bf596c852ed56f5a0ce1d94222cc687a.pdf

موسسه پژوهش های برنامه ریزی، اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه روستایی اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه 1022-4211 33 1 2025 05 22 Effect of Oil Revenue Shocks on Iran's Agricultural Sector: Application of DSGE Model کاربرد الگوی تعادل عمومی پویای تصادفی در بررسی اثر تکانه درآمدهای نفتی بر بخش کشاورزی ایران 131 165 132202 10.30490/aead.2025.367314.1639 FA سید هدایت جلال اصل دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد مرودشت، مرودشت، ایران. بهاالدین نجفی استاد گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، واحد مرودشت، مرودشت، ایران. سید نعمت الله موسوی استاد گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، واحد مرودشت، مرودشت، ایران. 0000-0001-5645-1976 Journal Article 2024 11 15 Introduction: The agricultural sector is crucial for the developing countries heavily reliant on oil exports. It ensures food security, creates jobs, boosts non-oil exports, and reduces rural migration. In developing nations, a significant percentage of the population relies directly or indirectly on agriculture for their livelihood. The significance of oil in the macro economy has declined over the past thirty years, but oil prices still substantially influence the economy. A number of studies have shown that changes in oil prices affect the agricultural sector, but there are limited studies on the specific impacts of these shocks. The susceptibility of the agricultural sector to oil price shocks, encompassing both demand shocks associated with non-OPEC oil and supply shocks stemming from OPEC oil, has been the focus of considerable scrutiny. Investigating and quantifying these shocks and their impact on agriculture is undoubtedly crucial. The oil price shocks have a substantial impact on economic activity, especially in open economies. These effects stem from the timing of economic agents’ decisions and can explain a significant portion of business cycle fluctuations. Oil-exporting emerging economies, in particular, face distinct challenges from the oil price shocks, including the Dutch disease. The impacts of oil price shocks on these economies are contingent on their underlying causes and the economic conditions. This study aimed to examine the impact of oil revenue shocks on Iran’s economy, particularly focusing on the agricultural sector, using a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model. Materials and Method: Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) modeling represents a macroeconomic methodology commonly employed by monetary and fiscal authorities for policy analysis, historical time-series data interpretation, and future forecasting purposes. The DSGE econometric modeling leverages general equilibrium theory and microeconomic principles in a manageable fashion to postulate economic phenomena, including economic growth, business cycles, policy effects, and market shocks. The DSGE is a type of economic models that can calculate the trajectory of fundamental economic variables while taking into account external shocks and initial conditions. The model framework in this study represented a real business cycle model rooted in microeconomics principles. It considered essential conditions such as competitive markets and a frictionless economy. The study segregated production, investment, capital stock, and employment variables into public and private sectors to observe the impact of oil price shocks and government consumption expenditures on both sectors. In the context of Iran’s oil-based economy, it has traditionally been assumed that the government would derive its revenue primarily from oil sources. Based on this income, the government engages the labor force from households and allocates a portion of its earnings to government-led production. As such, the overarching economic model encompasses the interactions between the firm, household, and government sectors. Results and Discussion: The study results indicated that the oil price impact led to a 0.05 percent increase in agricultural sector production in the first year, followed by a sudden significant decrease of -0.05 percent. The average effect of oil prices on the agricultural sector's production was generally estimated negative, due to the presence of Dutch disease in Iran’s economy. The oil price shock had a positive impact on investment in the agricultural sector initially, increasing investment by 0.28 percent in the first year. However, this effect diminished rapidly, with investment changes turning negative soon after and approaching a stable trend below the zero line. The agricultural sector experienced an initial increase in employment due to the oil price shock, but this trend eventually declined. Throughout all years, the impact of the oil price impulse on the agricultural sector employment remained positive, with the variable tending towards a long-term trend above zero. The study results also indicated a 0.01 percent increase in the agricultural sector inflation in the first year due to the oil price impact; subsequently, the inflation rate showed a downward trend, becoming negative starting from the seventh period, and later experiencing an upward trend following changes in the general price index for the agricultural sector. Conclusion and Suggestions: Every economy, regardless of its development status and size, is vulnerable to the negative impact of uncertainties and economic shocks, which can lead to significant harm. Economic shocks introduce increased risk and decision-making complexities due to the disruption and volatility they create in economic variables. The interplay of economic variables facilitates the transmission and amplification of shock effects across the entire economy, leading to economic instability. This instability results in various costs, including suboptimal resource allocation and reduced production, investment and employment, as well as price fluctuations. Understanding the propagation of shocks and analyzing their impact on economic variables enables policymakers and economic stakeholders to make informed decisions to mitigate adverse effects. This knowledge also empowers investors and economic producers to make proactive and informed decisions, anticipating potential consequences. بررسی تأثیر بی‌ثباتی درآمد نفتی در ایران، به‌عنوان یکی از کشورهای مهم تولیدکننده نفت، بر بخشهای مختلف اقتصادی از جمله بخش کشاورزی، به دلیل ارتباط تنگاتنگ این بخش با امنیت غذایی، بسیار حائز اهمیت است. بنابراین، در پژوهش حاضر، با استفاده از یک الگوی تعادل عمومی پویای تصادفی (DSGE)، به بررسی اثر تکانه‌ها یا همان تکانه‏‌های درآمد نفتی بر اقتصاد ایران با تأکید بر بخش کشاورزی پرداخته شد. یافته‌های تحقیق مبتنی بر الگوی چرخه ادوار تجاری حقیقی نشان داد که میانگین اثرات تکانه قیمت نفت بر تولید بخش کشاورزی منفی است. به‌طور کلی، به‌‏دلیل ویژگی‌های ساختاری اقتصاد ایران از جمله گسترده بودن فعالیت‌های غیرمولد در اقتصاد، افزایش درآمدهای نفتی تأثیر کمی بر رشد و گسترش تولید بخش غیرنفتی کشور دارد. یافته‌های تحقیق، همچنین، نشان داد که اثر تکانه قیمت نفت بر سرمایه‌گذاری در بخش کشاورزی مثبت است، اما این اثر مثبت خیلی زود از بین می‏‌رود و تغییرات سرمایه‌گذاری به مقادیر منفی وارد می‌شود؛ البته، اثر تکانه قیمت نفت بر اشتغال بخش کشاورزی برای همه سال‌ها مثبت است و این متغیر در مقادیر بالای صفر به روند بلندمدت خود متمایل می‌شود. نتایج تحقیق حاکی از آن بود که با اعمال تکانه قیمت نفت، نرخ تورم در بخش کشاورزی در سال‌های ابتدایی افزایشی بوده و اما در ادامه، تغییرات نرخ تورم نزولی شده است و در میان‏‌مدت نیز این متغیر منفی می‌شود؛ با این همه، در بلندمدت، اثر تکانه نفتی بر قیمت محصولات کشاورزی مثبت ارزیابی شده است. با توجه به تأثیر منفی تکانه نفتی بر تولید بخش کشاورزی و افزایش سطح عمومی قیمت‌ها در این بخش، برنامه‌ریزی صحیح در راستای هزینه‏‌کرد درآمدهای نفتی در اقتصاد ایران ضروری است. به دیگر سخن، با توجه به وابستگی بودجه دولت به قیمت نفت و درآمدهای نفتی، باید ضریب ارتباط بودجه دولت و درآمدهای نفتی را کاهش داد تا آثار نوسان قیمت نفت در اقتصاد به حداقل ممکن برسد.

http://aead.agri-peri.ac.ir/article_132202_79b4425cb1e1a301c1175e87dc055b38.pdf

موسسه پژوهش های برنامه ریزی، اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه روستایی اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه 1022-4211 33 1 2025 05 22 An Analysis of Spatial Inequality in Agricultural Development of Rural Areas in Sistan Region and Its Influencing Factors تحلیلی بر نابرابری فضایی توسعه کشاورزی مناطق روستایی منطقه سیستان و عوامل مؤثر بر آن 167 194 132225 10.30490/aead.2025.366969.1625 FA اشرف سجادی دکتری جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی روستایی، دانشگاه خوارزمی، پژوهشگر مؤسسه پژوهش‌های برنامه‌ریزی، اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه روستایی، تهران، ایران. مجتبی پالوج دکتری برنامه‌‏ریزی راهبردی کشاورزی و امنیت غذایی، قائم مقام مؤسسه پژوهش‏‌های برنامه‏‌ریزی، اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه روستایی، سرپرست معاونت امور پژوهشی این مؤسسه، تهران، ایران. حسین اسماعیل‌نیا دکتری جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی روستایی، پژوهشگر مؤسسه پژوهش‌های برنامه‌ریزی، اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه روستایی، تهران، ایران. Journal Article 2024 09 09 Introduction: Despite the significant potential in the agricultural sector, particularly in tropical crop production in Sistan region of Iran, spatial policies and the distribution of government activities and services in agriculture and natural resources have not been aligned with comparative advantages and climatic conditions, especially for essential products. This deficiency has led to the neglect of the actual potential of rural areas in this region for production, preventing adequate growth in their agricultural sector. Furthermore, the development of complementary services and infrastructure for agricultural development in these rural areas has not been proportional to their agricultural production potential. As a result, the rural areas with high potential comparative advantages have been marginalized and excluded from agricultural development management decision-making. Agricultural development plays a key role in various aspects such as achieving economic and political independence, self-sufficiency in strategic products, creating employment for the growing population, supplying raw materials for industry, regional balance and equilibrium, rural development, regulating urban-rural relations, limiting uncontrolled migration to cities, and ensuring food security for national development. Therefore, identifying and analyzing the current agricultural situation is one of the most important issues in regional planning for the Sistan region. Achieving this goal requires a thorough analysis of the status of the Sistan rural areas. It should also be noted that since one of the objectives of the rural planning is to achieve economic and social development at the rural level, with agricultural development always being a priority, assessing the agricultural development along with identifying causal, contextual, and intervening factors contributing to spatial inequality is a crucial step for planners to achieve the development goals. Accordingly, this research aimed to investigate and respond to the following questions: What combination of causal, contextual, and intervening factors has contributed to spatial inequality in agricultural development? How can agricultural planning be improved to leverage the region’s comparative advantages? What policy measures are needed to integrate marginalized rural areas into agricultural development decision-making? Materials and Methods: This was an applied study in terms of purpose while it could be considered as descriptive-analytical exploratory research in terms of nature and methodology. The research data was collected through documented-desk studies (literature review) as well as questionnaires and interviews. The required information and data were organized in two phases: quantitative and qualitative. For data analysis in the quantitative phase, SPSS software was used, while in the qualitative phase, grounded theory and Delphi method were employed. It is worth noting that the statistical population of the study was different for the two quantitative and qualitative stages. In the quantitative stage, the statistical population included all rural households in the Sistan region, which according to the information of the Statistical Center of Iran (SCI) in 2016, numbered 60,075 households in 796 rural locations. The sample size was determined using Cochran formula and at a confidence level of 95 percent, equal to 321 households, which were randomly selected to respond the questionnaire. In the qualitative stage, the statistical population of study included specialists in the fields of geography and rural planning, agriculture, and land use planning, of which 30 individuals were selected using purposive sampling. Results and Discussion: The study findings indicated that the agricultural development in the rural areas of Sistan region was in an unfavorable state. Based on the qualitative research findings, the causal factors of spatial inequality in the agricultural development in rural areas of the region included climate change, the undefined position of spatial justice in the administrative and executive system, centralized and sectoral approaches, and a one-dimensional perspective on development. Also, lack of attention to the physical-environmental capabilities available in the rural areas of Sistan region, unbalanced distribution of infrastructure and agricultural services in regional policies, unfavorable rural governance, lack of public participation in the agricultural development process, and lack of mechanisms to deal with drought were identified as underlying factors of the spatial inequality. In addition, based on the results of the study, the intervening factors affecting the spatial inequalities of agricultural development in the rural areas of Sistan region included the failure to accelerate the transfer of water to the Sistan region, the politicization of the issue of sharing the water of the Helmand River between Iran and Afghanistan, the adoption of polar policies, inconsistent management among organizations, lack of effective support from the banking system for the rural agricultural sector of Sistan, and the inefficiency of upstream documents were foung to be the main factors in the field of balanced development and elimination of deprivation. Conclusion and Suggestions: To prevent the wasting of the capacities and capabilities of the Sistan rural areas, to make optimal use of them, and to eliminate agricultural imbalances, the need for the presence of a land use planning program in the planning of the agricultural sector in the Sistan region is evident. This approach in the discussions related to agricultural development is one of the basic areas of applied geography, which often organizes and establishes a balance in agricultural indicators in the region with demand and authority. Therefore, it is necessary to look into the future of Sistan agricultural space by understanding the current situation in the agricultural development. طی سال‌های اخیر، مطالعه نابرابری و وجود آن در محدوده‌های جغرافیایی مختلف به‌‏ویژه در کانون توجه برنامه‌ریزان و سیاست‏گذاران بوده است. با توجه به موقعیت جغرافیایی و ویژگی‌های زیست‏‌شناختی منحصربه‏‌فرد استان‌های کشور، نابرابری فضایی در حوزه کشاورزی در ایران، هم در سطح درون‌منطقه‌ای و هم در سطح بین‌منطقه‌ای، به‌طور گسترده مشاهده می‌شود. در این میان، منطقه سیستان از اهمیت ویژه برخوردار است، زیرا الگوهای توسعه کشاورزی به‏ویژه در نواحی روستایی این منطقه به‌‏گونه‌‏ای متفاوت شکل گرفته‌اند، که منجر به ایجاد شکاف‌های قابل توجه در بهره‌وری، دسترسی به منابع و فرصت‌های اقتصادی شده است. بنابراین، پرداختن به موضوع نابرابری فضایی در بخش کشاورزی روستاهای این منطقه بسیار اهمیت دارد. بر این اساس، پژوهش حاضر، با هدف تحلیل نابرابری فضایی در توسعه کشاورزی روستاهای منطقه سیستان و بررسی عوامل مؤثر بر آن، از نوع کاربردی و از نظر ماهیت و روش، توصیفی- تحلیلی و اکتشافی بود؛ و نتایج مطالعه نشان داد که توسعه کشاورزی در روستاهای منطقه سیستان در وضعیت نامطلوب قرار دارد. بر اساس یافته‌های بخش کیفی پژوهش، عوامل علی نابرابری فضایی در توسعه کشاورزی نواحی روستایی منطقه سیستان عبارت‏‌اند از تغییرات اقلیمی، جایگاه نامشخص عدالت فضایی در نظام اداری و اجرایی، رویکرد متمرکز، نگاه بخشی و تک‌بعدی به توسعه؛ همچنین، عدم توجه به قابلیت‌های فیزیکی- محیطی موجود در روستاهای منطقه سیستان، توزیع نامتوازن زیرساخت‌ها و خدمات کشاورزی در سیاست‌گذاری‌های منطقه‌ای، حکمروایی نامطلوب روستایی، عدم مشارکت مردم در فرآیند توسعه کشاورزی و نبود سازوکارهای مقابله با پدیده خشکسالی به‏‌عنوان عوامل زمین‌های نابرابری فضایی شناسایی شدند. علاوه بر این، بر اساس نتایج مطالعه، عوامل مداخله‌گر مؤثر در نابرابری‌های فضایی توسعه کشاورزی در روستاهای منطقه سیستان شامل عدم تسریع انتقال آب به سیستان، سیاسی‌کاری در مسئله تقسیم آب رودخانه هیرمند بین ایران و افغانستان، اتخاذ سیاست قطبی، مدیریت نامنسجم در بین سازمان‌ها، عدم حمایت مؤثر نظام بانکی از بخش کشاورزی روستاهای سیستان و ناکارآمدی اسناد بالادستی در زمینه توسعه متوازن و محرومیت‌زدایی ارزیابی شدند.

http://aead.agri-peri.ac.ir/article_132225_a5ecc6f2968111691b59f5f39d215a81.pdf

موسسه پژوهش های برنامه ریزی، اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه روستایی اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه 1022-4211 33 1 2025 05 22 Designing an Innovative Digital Agricultural Education Model to Improve Agricultural Productivity and Sustainability in Rural Areas of Iran طراحی مدل نوآورانه آموزش کشاورزی دیجیتال برای بهبود بهره‌وری و پایداری کشاورزی در مناطق روستایی ایران 195 224 132214 10.30490/aead.2025.367388.1659 FA بهارک عزیزی استادیار گروه ترویج و آموزش کشاورزی، دانشگاه جامع علمی کاربردی، تهران، ایران Journal Article 2025 02 12 Introduction: Over recent decades, digital agriculture has emerged as a key tool for enhancing productivity and sustainability in rural areas. This concept involves the use of technologies such as the Internet of Things (IoT), remote sensing, and machine learning to optimize resource consumption, increase productivity, and manage environmental sustainability. However, rural farmers face challenges in adopting these technologies due to infrastructure and information limitations. Digital agricultural education can play a significant role in empowering farmers and increasing their awareness of modern technologies. In this context, designing an innovative educational model that addresses the social, economic, and environmental dimensions of agriculture is essential. To be effective, such a model must incorporate accessible training methods, local language support, and real-time advisory services tailored to the specific needs of rural communities. It should also consider gender inclusivity, digital literacy, and community engagement to ensure widespread adoption. This research aimed at proposing an effective model for digital agricultural education to contribute to the sustainable productivity of agriculture in rural areas and improve the living standard of farmers. Furthermore, the study highlighted the importance of public-private partnerships and government support in scaling digital initiatives and bridging the digital gap in underserved farming regions. Materials and Methods: This study utilized a mixed research method with an exploratory sequential approach to design an innovative digital agricultural education model focusing on social, economic, and environmental impacts. In the qualitative phase, the required data were collected through semi-structured interviews with 16 managers from the Ministry of Agriculture-Jahad (MAJ) as well as agricultural education specialists and university professors. Data analysis was carried out in five stages: generating initial codes, searching for selective codes, forming sub-themes, and defining main themes. In total, 50 selective codes, 26 sub-themes, and 9 main themes/categories were identified. The validity of the findings was confirmed by interviewees, and their reliability was tested through retesting and comparing coding between two researchers. In the quantitative phase, the required data were collected through a questionnaire designed based on the results of the qualitative phase from a sample population consisting of agricultural education specialists, staff, and university professors. A cluster sampling method was used, and the sample size was determined to be 1960 people. The reliability of the questionnaires was confirmed using Cronbach's alpha. The data were analyzed using structural equation modeling to examine the relationships among the identified variables. The final model provided insights into the key drivers of effective digital agricultural education and could serve as a foundation for policy-making and curriculum development. The findings contributed to a better understanding of the factors affecting digital agricultural education and provided an innovative educational model that could be adapted to various rural contexts. Results and Discussion: The study results showed that the innovative digital agricultural education model had a significant impact on improving productivity and sustainability in rural agriculture. In the qualitative phase, thematic analysis led to the identification of 9 main themes, including social sustainability, economic sustainability, environmental sustainability, digital innovations, education and empowerment, policy-making, technological infrastructure, synergies and partnerships, and research and development. In the quantitative phase, path coefficients showed that all independent variables had significantly positive impacts on the digital agricultural education model (P<0.05). The highest impacts were related to the education and empowerment (β=0.813) and the policy-making and strategy (β=0.817). The R² value (0.585) and the overall model fit index (GOF=0.412) indicated a strong match between the model and the empirical data. In addition, the predictive relevance (Q²) confirmed the model’s predictive accuracy. The findings underscore the importance of educational, technological, and policy factors in the development of digital agriculture and emphasize the role of synergy between government, universities, and the private sector. These results can serve as a foundation for policy strategies and the design of digital educational programs in the field of sustainable agriculture. Conclusion and Suggestions: The study findings indicated that the innovative digital agricultural education model, focusing on social, economic and environmental impacts, could be an effective solution for improving productivity and sustainability in the rural agriculture. The identification of the above-mentioned nine key themes/dimensions showed that combining these factors could facilitate the successful adoption and implementation of digital agricultural education. The findings also emphasized that technological infrastructure, supportive policies, and the development of farmers’ digital skills would be essential components of this model. Furthermore, the role of digital innovations such as IoT and Artificial Intelligence (AI) in optimizing agricultural processes and enhancing productivity was confirmed. The consistency of this study’s findings with previous research highlights the importance of policy strategies, technology development, and digital education in fostering sustainable agriculture. Therefore, it is recommended that policymakers and planners, considering these dimensions, develop comprehensive strategies for the expansion of digital agricultural education, which will contribute to increased agricultural productivity, the preservation of natural resources, and sustainable development در دهه‌های اخیر، کشاورزی دیجیتال به‌عنوان ابزاری نوین برای ارتقای بهره‌وری و پایداری کشاورزی در مناطق روستایی شناخته شده است. در پژوهش حاضر با هدف طراحی یک مدل نوآورانه برای آموزش کشاورزی دیجیتال، با تمرکز بر تأثیرات اجتماعی، اقتصادی و محیطی، به بررسی چالش‌ها و نیازمندی‌های این حوزه پرداخته شد. بدین منظور، از روش تحقیق آمیخته و رویکرد متوالی اکتشافی برای جمع‌آوری و تحلیل داده‌ها استفاده شد. در بخش کیفی، داده‌ها از طریق مصاحبه‌های نیمه‌ساختارمند با شانزده نفر از مدیران، متخصصان و اساتید کشاورزی جمع‌آوری شد و تحلیل مضمون به شناسایی نُه بعد اصلی شامل پایداری اجتماعی، اقتصادی و محیطی، نوآوری‌های دیجیتال، آموزش و توانمندسازی، سیاست‌گذاری، زیرساخت‌های فناورانه، هم‌افزایی و مشارکت‌ها، و تحقیق و توسعه انجامید. در بخش کمی، پرسشنامه‌ای مبتنی بر نتایج کیفی طراحی شد، که گردآوری داده‌ها از 1960 نفر از متخصصان و کارکنان آموزش کشاورزی و اساتید دانشگاهی صورت گرفت. نتایج پژوهش نشان داد که تمامی ابعاد مدل پیشنهادی تأثیر مثبت و معنی‌دار بر آموزش کشاورزی دیجیتال دارند؛ در تحلیل ضرایب مسیر نیز به‏ ترتیب، بیشترین تأثیر به آموزش و توانمندسازی و سیاست‌گذاری و خط‌مشی تعلق دارد؛ همچنین، ضریب تعیین مدل و شاخص برازش کلی مدل نشان‌دهنده تطابق قوی مدل با داده‌های تجربی است. اعتبار پیش‌بینی مدل با استفاده از تحلیل ضرایب پیش‌بینی تأیید شد. این یافته‌ها تأکید دارند که عوامل آموزشی، فناورانه و سیاستی به‌ویژه توسعه مهارت‌های دیجیتال کشاورزان و زیرساخت‌های فناورانه از مهم‌ترین الزامات این مدل به‏ شمار می‌‏روند. همچنین، نوآوری‌های دیجیتال همچون اینترنت اشیا و هوش مصنوعی در بهینه‌سازی فرآیندهای کشاورزی و افزایش بهره‌وری مؤثرند. هم‌راستایی این نتایج با مطالعات پیشین گویای اهمیت توجه به فناوری‌های نوین و توسعه آموزش دیجیتال در راستای پایداری کشاورزی است. در نهایت، پیشنهاد می‌شود که سیاست‌گذاران با در نظر گرفتن این ابعاد، راهکارهایی جامع برای توسعه و گسترش آموزش کشاورزی دیجیتال طراحی کنند تا علاوه بر افزایش بهره‌وری کشاورزی، به حفظ منابع طبیعی و تحقق توسعه پایدار کمک شود.

http://aead.agri-peri.ac.ir/article_132214_ae376921b47f1a92b67c21e999d6e32c.pdf

موسسه پژوهش های برنامه ریزی، اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه روستایی اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه 1022-4211 33 1 2025 05 22 Identifying and Prioritizing the Smart Wheat Supply Chain Management Barriers with a Sustainable Development Approach شناسایی و اولویت‌بندی چالش‌های مدیریت زنجیره تأمین هوشمند گندم با رویکرد توسعه پایدار 225 274 132192 10.30490/aead.2025.367370.1654 FA علی اوتارخانی استادیار گروه مدیریت صنعتی و فناوری اطلاعات، دانشکده مدیریت و حسابداری، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران. 0000-0002-4021-3209 سمیه عالمی نیسی دانشجوی دکتری مدیریت فناوری اطلاعات، مدیریت صنعتی و فناوری اطلاعات، دانشکده مدیریت و حسابداری، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران. 0000-0002-9495-7756 عباس راد استادیار گروه مدیریت صنعتی و فناوری اطلاعات، دانشکده مدیریت و حسابداری، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران. 0000-0002-1413-7126 علیرضا حسن زاده استاد گروه مدیریت فناوری اطلاعات، دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران. 0000-0003-3015-3019 Journal Article 2025 01 19 Introduction: Wheat is one of the most strategic agricultural commodities globally serving as a critical foundation for food security, national economic stability, and sustainable development. In Iran, wheat has a particularly vital role, not only because it constitutes a major share of household caloric intake but also because it symbolizes self-sufficiency efforts in the agricultural sector. Nevertheless, the traditional wheat supply chain in Iran is characterized by inefficiencies including excessive consumption of water and energy, limited utilization of digital technologies, low transparency in information flow, outdated infrastructure, and multiple economic and policy-related constraints. These inefficiencies are further exacerbated by the country's vulnerability to climate change, water scarcity, and international sanctions, which together pose significant challenges to maintaining and improving food security. The advent of smart supply chain technologies, including the Internet of Things, blockchain, artificial intelligence, big data analytics, and digital twins, has opened new pathways for improving supply chain efficiency, traceability, and sustainability. A smart wheat supply chain can enable real-time monitoring of production, predictive analytics for resource optimization, transparent transactions among stakeholders, and resilient logistics systems that are adaptable to environmental and market shocks. Transitioning to such a model is increasingly seen as not merely an option but a necessity for Iran’s agricultural future. However, this transformation is neither simple nor automatic. It is hampered by multiple technological, social, economic, and environmental barriers, the identification and prioritization of which are critical for effective policy formulation and implementation. Materials and Methods: The present study was designed to systematically identify, validate, and prioritize the key challenges associated with managing a smart wheat supply chain within the framework of sustainable development. A qualitative research strategy was employed, combining meta-synthesis, fuzzy Delphi, and fuzzy FOCUM methodologies. Initially, a comprehensive meta-synthesis was conducted on scholarly articles published between 2014 and 2024, accessed through reputable databases such as Web of Science and Scopus. Inclusion criteria mandated that articles should address technological, environmental, economic, or social barriers to smart supply chain implementation. Following the extraction of relevant challenges from the literature, a fuzzy Delphi method was utilized to validate these barriers. A panel of 23 experts participated in two iterative rounds of the Delphi process. This fuzzy approach was selected to handle uncertainties inherent in expert opinions and to provide a more nuanced assessment. Finally, the validated challenges were prioritized using the fuzzy FOCUM. This method offers an efficient and consistency-checked prioritization of factors by requiring fewer pairwise comparisons than traditional methods like AHP, making it particularly suitable for complex decision-making scenarios with multiple criteria under uncertainty. Results and Discussion: The analysis resulted in the identification of a wide range of barriers, which were classified into three main dimensions as follows: (1) Environmental barriers included high energy consumption during production and transportation, lack of recycling systems for electronic and smart agricultural equipment, dependency on non-renewable energy sources, and inefficient water resource management. These factors not only increase operational costs but also undermine the environmental sustainability of the wheat supply chain, posing risks to long-term agricultural resilience in Iran's water-scarce context; (2) Social challenges were found to be particularly complex and multi-layered. A significant proportion of farmers and supply chain actors displayed limited digital literacy, with inadequate access to training programs that could bridge the technological knowledge gap. Cultural resistance to change, lack of trust in new technologies, and weak collaboration among supply chain participants were also prominent barriers. Moreover, digital divides between rural and urban areas hindered equitable access to smart solutions, creating imbalances in technological adoption. The absence of supportive policies and regulatory frameworks further compounded these challenges, making it difficult to build momentum for widespread digital transformation; and (3) Economic barriers were among the most critical. High initial investment costs for smart technologies, uncertainty regarding return on investment, technological dependence on foreign suppliers, and financial constraints, especially among smallholder farmers and medium-sized enterprises, were major issues. The impact of international sanctions, which restrict access to advanced technologies and international financing, emerged as a uniquely significant barrier in Iran’s case. Furthermore, the lack of robust digital infrastructure, such as high-speed internet connectivity in rural areas, posed additional obstacles to the successful implementation of smart supply chains. In response to these findings, a set of comprehensive policy recommendations were developed. These include the establishment of a National Smart Agriculture Council to orchestrate multi-stakeholder efforts, the formulation of a detailed operational roadmap for smart supply chain transformation, and the provision of financial incentives for renewable energy adoption and local technology development. Expanding digital infrastructure in rural areas, setting up specialized e-waste recycling centers, and adopting flexible financial models such as "Everything-as-a-Service" (XaaS) were also proposed to lower adoption costs and risks. Promoting collaborative ecosystems and enhancing transparency through blockchain technology could additionally support stakeholder trust and cooperation. Conclusion and Suggestions: The successful development of a smart wheat supply chain in Iran hinges on addressing a complex interplay of environmental, social, and economic barriers. Strategic policymaking at the national level must be complemented by effective institutional coordination and robust capacity-building initiatives at the operational level. There is an urgent need for investment not only in physical infrastructure but also in human capital through training and education programs that can raise digital literacy among all supply chain actors. Moreover, given the unique challenges posed by international sanctions, Iran must pursue localized technological innovation and foster indigenous capacity-building to reduce reliance on external sources. Transparent governance structures, data security frameworks, and regulatory standards must be developed to foster trust and ensure ethical management of digital resources. This study contributes to the existing literature by offering a comprehensive and context-specific analysis of the barriers to smart agricultural supply chain transformation, emphasizing the importance of a holistic and integrated approach that balances technological advancement with environmental stewardship, economic viability, and social inclusiveness. By providing actionable insights, the findings can guide policymakers, researchers, and industry practitioners in designing interventions that not only enhance the efficiency and resilience of the wheat supply chain but also promote broader goals of sustainable agricultural development. زنجیره تأمین هوشمند گندم به‌عنوان یکی از ارکان اصلی امنیت غذایی و توسعه پایدار دارای نقشی بی‌بدیل در ارتقای بهره‌وری، کاهش ضایعات و بهینه‌سازی مصرف منابع طبیعی بوده و استقرار موفق آن مستلزم شناسایی و مدیریت نظام‌مند چالش‌های زیست‏‌محیطی، اجتماعی و اقتصادی مؤثر بر فرآیند تحول دیجیتال در کشاورزی است. در پژوهش حاضر، با هدف شناسایی و اولویت‌بندی چالش‌های استقرار زنجیره تأمین هوشمند گندم در ایران، از ترکیبی از روش‌های پژوهش کیفی و تصمیم‌گیری چندمعیاره فازی بهره گرفته شد. ابتدا با استفاده از روش فراترکیب، چالش‌های اساسی از منابع علمی معتبر استخراج و سپس، با بهره‌گیری از روش دلفی فازی و اخذ نظرات خبرگان دانشگاهی، دولتی و صنعتی، این چالش‌ها اعتبارسنجی شدند. در ادامه، به روش فوکام فازی، اولویت‌بندی چالش‌ها بر اساس میزان اهمیت و تأثیرگذاری آنها صورت گرفت. نتایج پژوهش نشان داد که مصرف بالای انرژی، فقدان نظام‌های مؤثر بازیافت تجهیزات دیجیتال، کمبود شایستگی‌های دیجیتال و فناورانه در میان ذی‌نفعان، ضعف سیاست‌های حمایتی، هزینه‌های بالای فناوری‌های نوین و موانع ناشی از تحریم‌های بین‌المللی از جمله چالش‌های کلیدی و بازدارنده به‏شمار می‏روند. برای مواجهه مؤثر با این چالش‌ها، در سطح کلان، تشکیل «ستاد ملی کشاورزی هوشمند»، تدوین نقشه راه جامع، طراحی مشوق‌های مالی برای استفاده از انرژی‌های تجدیدپذیر، گسترش زیرساخت‌های ارتباطی و داده‌محور و تقویت تولید داخلی فناوری‌های کشاورزی پیشنهاد می‌شود. در سطح اجرایی نیز توسعه آموزش‌های مهارتی متناسب با فناوری‌های نوین، ایجاد مراکز تخصصی بازیافت تجهیزات دیجیتال، بهره‌گیری از مدل‌های اقتصادی نوآورانه نظیر «همه چیز به‌عنوان خدمت» و حمایت هدفمند از کسب‌وکارهای فناورانه کشاورزی ضرورت دارد. یافته‌های پژوهش حاضر می‌تواند ضمن ارتقای ادبیات علمی حوزه زنجیره تأمین هوشمند، مبنایی برای تدوین سیاست‌های دقیق، توسعه ظرفیت‌های فناورانه بومی و تحقق توسعه پایدار در زنجیره‌های تأمین کشاورزی کشور فراهم آورد.

http://aead.agri-peri.ac.ir/article_132192_c524ed5424ce212c5d501ef7f13763d0.pdf