موسسه پژوهش های برنامه ریزی، اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه روستایی اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه 1022-4211 33 2 2025 08 23 Calculation of Shadow Price of Water for Almond Crop in Saman County of Iran محاسبه قیمت سایه‌ای آب برای محصول بادام در شهرستان سامان 1 22 132152 10.30490/aead.2024.365303.1589 FA حسین نادری دانشجو دکتری اقتصاد کشاورزی، پردیس کشاورزی دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران مهدی پندار استادیارگروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، پردیس کشاورزی دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران سعید یزدانی استاد گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، پردیس کشاورزی دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران 0000-0002-9403-9963 Journal Article 2024 05 06 Introduction: Considering that a very large part of water resources is consumed as the most important and limited production inputs in Iran’s agricultural sector as well as lack of water on the one hand and the huge costs of its supply on the other hand, increasing the efficiency and value of water consumption is one of the most important national goals. Therefore, this study aimed at evaluating the water of Saman County, located in Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province of Iran, in order to provide the conditions to reduce the consumption or waste of water resources by adopting favorable policies in the agricultural sector. According to the goals and limitations of this research, the production function method was estimated using econometric techniques. Materials and Methods: In this research, in order to identify the effective inputs in the production of almonds in Saman County, and to determine the economic value of Zayandehroud River water through the Cochran-Orcutt formula, 85 questionnaires were completed by a simple random method from gardeners of the county. Then, Cobb-Douglas, Transcendental, Quadratic, Generalized Quadratic and Generalized Leontief functions were estimated with in an econometric method; and according to the available indicators and statistics, the quadratic function was chosen as the most appropriate production function while by using the estimated coefficients of the selected estimation model and the price of the product, the final value of water production could be calculated. Results and Discussion: According to the estimation of the dependent forms of the production function and their comparison through F test, coefficient of determination statistic, DW test, the number of significant coefficients, the economic value obtained and the agreement of the model with the theory, the quadratic production function was selected as the superior model. According to the coefficients of the second-order model in the county, water, animal and chemical fertilizers, pesticides, tree age, frost and type of irrigation were significant while labor force and machinery were not significant in almond production. The economic value of water was equal to 70640 IRI rials. Conclusion and Suggestions: Considering that the economic value of water for the almond crop was estimated at 70640 IRI rials for each cubic meter which is more than the willingness to pay and the cost paid by gardeners, and also because some gardeners did not have a modern irrigation system, it can be managed to compensate for some part of the price increase as well as the government may plan to modernize the irrigation system at the same time as increasing the price of water consumption up to the level of willingness of the gardeners to pay, while preventing double pressure on the gardeners, satisfying them and increasing their participation, leading to optimal use of water and provide water input. ایران در زمره کشورهای کم‏‌آب محسوب می‌شود؛ و بیشتر مساحت کشور از مناطق خشک و نیمه‌خشک تشکیل شده است و بخش بسیار زیادی از منابع آب نیز به عنوان یکی از مهم‏ترین و محدودترین نهاده‌های تولید، در بخش کشاورزی مصرف می‌شود. با عنایت به کمیابی آب، قیمت‌گذاری آب را می‏‌توان گامی مناسب و ضروری به سوی چارچوبی دانست که در نهایت، ارزش کامل و اقتصادی آب را روشن می‌سازد. از این‏‌رو، هدف پژوهش حاضر تعیین قیمت سایه‌ای آب مصرفی در تولید محصول باغی بادام در شهرستان سامان واقع در استان چهارمحال و بختیاری بود؛ و بدین منظور، از رهیافت تابع تولید استفاده شد. نخست، گردآوری اطلاعات مورد نیاز بر اساس روش نمونه‌گیری تصادفی ساده از طریق تکمیل 85 پرسشنامه از باغداران بادام شهرستان سامان صورت گرفت؛ سپس، انواع شکل‌های توابع تولید تخمین زده و بهترین شکل تابع، با توجه به نتایج به ‏دست‏‌آمده، تابع تولید درجه دوم تعیین شد. نتایج به‌‏کارگیری این روش نشان داد که ارزش اقتصادی هر مترمکعب آب در تولید محصول بادام ۷۰۶۴ تومان است. این مبلغ بالاتر از هزینه پرداختی فعلی باغداران برای هر مترمکعب (319 تومان) است. بر این اساس، پیشنهاد می‌شود که با سیاست‌گذاری مناسب و توجه ویژه به معاش باغداران، ضمن پرداخت یارانه برای ایجاد و به‌‏روزرسانی سامانه‏‌های آبیاری موجود، با توجه به میزان مصرف باغدار، قیمت آب به‏‌صورت پلکانی افزایش یابد تا علاوه بر تشویق باغداران کم‌مصرف، زمینه استفاده بهینه و افزایش بهره‌وری از این نهاده حیانی فراهم شود..

http://aead.agri-peri.ac.ir/article_132152_24148ff30dfdd9f1348bc878a740d3b7.pdf

موسسه پژوهش های برنامه ریزی، اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه روستایی اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه 1022-4211 33 2 2025 08 23 Examination of Factors Influencing Household Adoption of Urban Agriculture: A Case Study of Tehran and Alborz Provinces of Iran بررسی عوامل مؤثر بر پذیرش کشاورزی شهری توسط خانوار: مطالعه موردی استان‌های تهران و البرز 23 46 132204 10.30490/aead.2025.367351.1648 FA نیلوفر نعلبندی دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه تهران، البرز، ایران مرتضی مجیدیان دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه تهران، البرز، ایران 0000-0003-0370-5180 افسانه نیکوکار دانشیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران 0000-0003-3819-0033 Journal Article 2024 12 23 Introduction: Nowadays, urban population growth, declining rural populations, the conversion of agricultural land, and reduced agricultural production have led to significant challenges in many countries. Urban agriculture, as an innovative response to urbanization and population growth, is gaining prominence in urban planning. With the global population projected to reach 9.3 billion by 2050 and 66 percent residing in urban areas, food systems face immense pressure. Urban agriculture, involving plant cultivation and animal raising within cities, can enhance food security, reduce dependency on external resources, and utilize underused urban spaces effectively. Its benefits go beyond food production, helping reduce urban waste, lower greenhouse gas emissions from food transport, and create jobs. In densely populated provinces like Tehran and Alborz in Iran, rapid urbanization and shrinking agricultural land pose significant challenges. Urban agriculture offers a solution by utilizing rooftops, courtyards, and unused spaces to address food security and environmental concerns. Studies show that public awareness, policy support, and education are crucial for expanding urban agriculture. Recognizing its role in enhancing sustainability and food security, the urban agriculture is vital for densely populated regions like Tehran and Alborz. Furthermore, the development of urban agriculture could help reduce household food expenditures and support environmentally conscious lifestyles in cities. Materials and Methods: This study aimed at identifying the factors affecting the adoption of urban agriculture by the households of Tehran and Alborz provinces. It was conducted in a scientific-exploratory method with cross-sectional data collected for 2024. The statistical population included the households in Tehran and Alborz provinces, and the data collection tool was a questionnaire. The validity of the questionnaire was confirmed by experts and faculty members, and its reliability, measured by Cronbach's alpha coefficient (0.835), was deemed satisfactory. The sample size was determined using Cochran's formula, based on the 2016 census data of Statistical Center of Iran (SCI), and included 245 households. Data were collected through convenience simple random sampling using in-person and electronic interviews. To prioritize the influencing factors, descriptive statistics such as mean, standard deviation, and coefficient of variation were used. Additionally, exploratory factor analysis (EFA) was conducted to identify and summarize variables into key underlying factors. This method helps identify the latent variables underlying the observed data and examines the relationships between variables based on their shared characteristics within these factors. Factor analysis uses linear combinations of observed variables to summarize the information of the main variables into a smaller number of new factors. To improve interpretation, the Varimax rotation method was employed, clarifying the structure of the factors. The analysis was carried out using SPSS 27, enabling better understanding and visualization of the influencing factors. Results and Discussion: The study results revealed that respondents’ age ranged from 15 to 68 years, with an average of 30.06 years. Of the participants, 60 percent were women and 40 percent were men. Most respondents (80.5 percent) lived in urban apartments, while 19.5 percent resided in villas. Regarding education, 47 percent had a bachelor’s degree, 30 percent a master’s or doctoral degree, and 23 percent a diploma or lower. Factor analysis identified 12 key factors explaining 65.5 percent of the variance in urban agriculture adoption. The most influential factors were found to be as follows: Utilization, Beginner, and Economic, which explained 20.9 percent, 9.4 percent, and 6.4 percent of the variance, respectively; Economic considerations were a significant motivator, while lack of knowledge, agricultural skills, and training were primary barriers. The findings emphasized the need for greater awareness, accessible training programs, and supportive infrastructure to overcome obstacles and encourage participation in urban agriculture. Furthermore, the findings indicated a notable difference in the perception of urban agriculture based on residential type. Villa residents were more likely to engage in small-scale agricultural activities such as growing vegetables and herbs in their yards compared to apartment dwellers, who showed greater interest in rooftop and balcony gardening. Additionally, households with previous exposure to agricultural practices, even at a minimal level (such as childhood experience or family background in farming), demonstrated higher readiness to adopt urban agriculture practices. Another important insight was that respondents who had access to online content, social media platforms, or community groups related to gardening and sustainability were more inclined to try urban farming. These results underscore the importance of targeted awareness campaigns, especially through digital channels, and the need to design context-specific urban agriculture models that consider the physical constraints of urban living spaces. Developing supportive infrastructure, such as urban gardening kits or training on vertical farming, can enhance the accessibility and scalability of urban agriculture, particularly for apartment residents in metropolitan areas like Tehran and Alborz. Conclusion and Suggestions: This study results revealed that the studied individuals had limited awareness of the urban agriculture and were concerned about economic issues such as food security and resource efficiency; in older age groups, women had a more positive attitude toward the urban agriculture; the barriers to the urban agriculture development were categorized into twelve factors, including economic, awareness, attitude, and technical and infrastructural limitations; lack of information and economic conditions were significant factors in the adoption of urban agriculture; and finally, people with lower income levels had less awareness, which might be due to economic and cultural poverty. Therefore, providing financial incentives and facilities is essential. In addition, identifying and addressing technical limitations and improving support systems can help increase the adoption of urban agriculture. Moreover, holding educational courses and promoting the environmental benefits of urban agriculture should be prioritized. Public and private sector cooperation, policy-making, and the inclusion of urban agriculture in urban development strategies can support long-term sustainability and food resilience in urban environments like Tehran and Alborz. امروزه، رشد جمعیت شهری همراه با کاهش جمعیت روستایی، تغییر کاربری زمین‌های کشاورزی و کاهش تولید محصولات کشاورزی، به بروز مشکلات فراوان در کشورها دامن زده است. کشاورزی شهری به مفهوم انجام فعالیت‌های کشاورزی در شهر و پیرامون آن، به‌عنوان راهکاری نوین با قابلیت افزایش پایداری شهرها و امنیت غذایی، موضوعی نسبتاً جدید است که توسعه آن به افزایش پایداری شهرها و ایجاد امنیت غذایی می‌انجامد. هدف تحقیق حاضر شناسایی عوامل مؤثر بر پذیرش کشاورزی شهری توسط خانوارهای ساکن استان‌های تهران و البرز بود و بدین منظور، از روش علمی- اکتشافی استفاده شد؛ همچنین، گردآوری داده‌های پژوهش با تکمیل پرسشنامه در سال 1403 صورت گرفت و روایی پرسشنامه نیز توسط گروهی از اعضای هیئت‌ علمی و کارشناسان مرتبط تأیید شد. افزون بر این، بررسی پایایی پرسشنامه از طریق پیش‌آزمون و محاسبه ضریب آلفای کرونباخ انجام و با مقدار 0/853 تأیید شد. جامعه آماری تحقیق خانوارهای ساکن استان‌های تهران و البرز بودند که با استفاده از روش نمونه‌گیری تصادفی ساده در دسترس و با بهره‌‏گیری از رابطة کوکران، 245 خانوار به‏‌عنوان نمونه انتخاب شدند. بر اساس نتایج به‌‏دست‌‏آمده از تحلیل عاملی- اکتشافی، موانع پذیرش کشاورزی شهری توسط خانوارها، به‏ترتیب، در دوازده عامل اصلی با نام‌های «بهره‌برداری»، «مبتدی»، «اقتصادی»، «روان‏شناسی»، «زیست‌محیطی»، «سلامتی»، «پایداری»، «زیرساخت»، «محدودیت‌ها»، «انتخاب شخصی»، «آگاهی و نگرش» و «موانع و خطرات» دسته‌بندی شدند که در مجموع، 65/5 درصد از کل واریانس را تبیین می‌کنند. بر این اساس، راهکارهایی مانند تقویت برنامه‌های آموزشی برای افراد مبتدی و ارائه تسهیلات مالی، و سرمایه‌گذاری در زیرساخت‌ها به افزایش مشارکت در کشاورزی شهری کمک می‌کند..

http://aead.agri-peri.ac.ir/article_132204_cd01e5786d65f27654ca570edef28c69.pdf

موسسه پژوهش های برنامه ریزی، اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه روستایی اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه 1022-4211 33 2 2025 08 23 Utilizing the Potential of International Agreements in the Sustainable Supply of Grains and Oilseeds بهره‌گیری از ظرفیت موافقت‌نامه‌های بین‌المللی در تأمین پایدار غلات و دانه‌های روغنی 47 76 132193 10.30490/aead.2025.367361.1650 FA مهدی کاظم نژاد دانشیار موسسه پژوهش‏‌های برنامه‏‌ریزی، اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه روستایی 0009-0009-2056-4181 لیلا عزیزی کارشناس ارشد و معاون دبیرخانه شورای قیمت‌‏گذاری و اتخاذ سیاست‏‌های حمایتی محصولات اساسی کشاورزی سیده زهره حسینی امین دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد بین الملل و رئیس کمیته سیاست تجاری دبیرخانه شورای قیمت‌گذاری و اتخاذ سیاست‌های حمایتی محصولات اساسی کشاورزی Journal Article 2025 01 06 Introduction: In today's world, no country can meet all the needs of its society without relying on the products and services of other countries. Even if such a capability exists in a country, it is not economically rational and cost-effective. On the other hand, agricultural products are one of the most important sources of meeting human nutritional needs. Meanwhile, globalization has led to the rapid growth of trade at the global level and the reduction of information and communication costs. In this context, the food market in developing countries has undergone fundamental changes due to rapid urbanization, increased food diversity, trade convergence, and liberalization of foreign direct investment in the food industry. One of the most important changes in the global trading system during this period is the increase in Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs). The domestic market needs are met through domestic production and imports. Several factors, including government policies, international conditions, and world prices, affect the process of supplying products. Given the frequent droughts and climate change, Iran needs to supply part of its agricultural products through imports, taking advantage of the capacities of preferential agreements such as the Iran-Eurasia Agreement (IEA). This study aimed at examining the use of economic opportunities arising from IEA in the field of grain and oilseed trade with the member countries of the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU). This agreement was signed between Iran and EEU on May 17, 2018, after two years of negotiations. The main question of this research was as follows: What was the effect of IEA’s Trade Creation (TC) and Trade Deviation (TD) on grain and oilseed imports after its implementation? A review of past studies indicated that these studies had analyzed various agreements and their effects on the development of trade in EEU member countries using various methods such as [1]. Software on Market Analysis and Restriction on Trade (SMART) and Gravity models. However, the significant difference of this study from other research is that it is the first to examine the effects of IEA after its implementation compared to before, using the SMART model for some basic products. Materials and Methods: In this paper, using a partial equilibrium model called SMART Simulation Model, the effects of tariff reduction on Iran’s trade flow in agricultural trade with EEU member countries in the form of concepts of TC and TD were investigated. In the next step, the effects of tariffs on agricultural commodity groups at the classification level of Harmonized Commodity Description and Coding System (HS) were analyzed. The statistical population of this study included EEU and Iran. Data on the total value of bilateral trade (exports and imports) between Iran and the Union between 2016-2023 were based on information from Islamic Republic of Iran Customs Administration (IRICA) for 2017 to 2022 were extracted from the International Trade Center (ITC) website. Also, Iran’s tariff statistics were obtained from the book of export and import regulations for 2016-2023. Results and Discussion: A statistical study showed that the value of Iran’s agricultural exports to the world had decreased by 11 percent between 2016 and 2023. In contrast, the average agricultural exports to EEU in the four years after the agreement was ratified increased by a significant 96 percent compared to the three years before. The value of agricultural imports from EEU also decreased by 7.6 percent during the period under study after the implementation of the agreement. This information indicated that since 2019 and after the implementation of the IEA, Iran’s trade with the union has had increased significantly and experienced significant growth. The TC and TD consequences on the import side of the aforementioned products from the Eurasian Union resulting from the tariff reduction were estimated to be $31 million in TC and $25.8 million in TD. Therefore, the total estimated increase in imports of the aforementioned products from the Union compared to their average imports during the four years following the implementation of the agreement (2019-2023) would be equal to $56.8 million, which would be a 13.4 percent increase in imports from the Union. In other words, the volume of trade has improved. Conclusion and Suggestions: In line with the increasing trend of EEU share of world grain trade, the average share of wheat, barley and maize production in the studied period has varied from 1.5 percent for maize to 16.6 percent for barley. Therefore, the effects of the agreement on trade synergies between the Union and its partners and the world are very significant. In contrast, in the area of oilseeds, this trend has been decreasing for the Union during the concerned period. The results of the SMART model indicated that the Trade Creation (TC) and Trade Deviation (TD) effects resulting from the implementation of the agreement were equal to $31 and $25.8 million, respectively, representing a total increase of $56.8 million in imports (13.4 percent) from this union compared to their average imports during the four years following the implementation of the agreement (2019-2023). Therefore, all numerical indicators in the goods covered by the agreement indicated its positive effects on the trade of Iran. According to the obtained results, the following points are recommended: 1) The government should put on its agenda the development of a medium-term strategy for taking advantage of international agreements; 2) It is necessary to take more serious measures to maximize the capacity of the Iran-Eurasia Memorandum of Understanding in supplying basic goods; 3) It is necessary to pay more attention to the issue of guiding businessmen and economic activists in utilizing the capacities of the Iran-Eurasia Agreement (IEA) in order to improve food security by using timely information and short-term and practical training; 4) Incentive and guiding approaches should be applied in implementing the ‘oilseed import policy subject to domestic purchase’ to further utilize the capacity of IEA; and 5) The diversity of import sources of agricultural products should be increased by utilizing various international agreements to supply basic products which seems necessary to be placed on the agenda of Ministry of Agriculture-Jahad (MAJ) of Iran. بسیاری از کشورها، به‏‌ویژه کشورهای در حال توسعه، برای دستیابی به بازارهای هدف ایمن‌تر و کاهش موانع تجاری، سعی در بهره‌گیری از توافق‌نامه‌های تجاری دارند. بخشی قابل توجه از نیازهای داخلی ایران به غلات و دانه‌های روغنی، به‏‌عنوان مهم‌ترین کالاهای اساسی بخش کشاورزی، از طریق واردات تأمین می‌شود. در پژوهش حاضر، با استفاده از الگوی کاربردی اسمارت، تجارت غلات و دانه‌های روغنی ایران با پنج کشور عضو اتحادیه اقتصادی اوراسیا در دوره زمانی 1402-1395 و همچنین، پیامدهای ایجاد تجارت و انحراف تجارت غلات و دانه‌های روغنی ناشی از موافقت‌نامه موقت ایران و اتحادیه اقتصادی اوراسیا بررسی و تحلیل شد. نتایج بررسی نشان داد که تجارت غلات و دانه‌های روغنی بین ایران و پنج کشور اتحادیه طی چهار سال پس از اجرای موافقت‌نامه، در مقایسه با میانگین سه سال قبل از اجرای آن، به‌‏طور نسبی بهبود یافته است. بر پایة نتایج کاربرد الگوی اسمارت، واردات غلات و دانه‌های روغنی، روغن خام و کنجاله از این اتحادیه، به‏دلیل کاهش تعرفه، افزایش 13/6 درصدی داشته، که بخشی از آن ناشی از ایجاد تجارت و بخش دیگر ناشی از انحراف تجارت بوده است. بنابراین، استفاده از سازوکار موافقت‌نامه‌های بین‌المللی در دیپلماسی اقتصادی کشور می‌تواند در شرایط تحریم، در تأمین کالای اساسی مورد نیاز و بهبود امنیت غذایی کشور مؤثر واقع شود. از این‌‏رو، پیشنهاد می‌شود که به‏‌منظور تأمین پایدار کالاهای اساسی، تدوین راهبرد‌های میان‌مدت برای بهره‎‌گیری از موافقت‌نامه‌های بین‌المللی در دستور کار دولت قرار گیرد.

http://aead.agri-peri.ac.ir/article_132193_021f9bb8f92a2407693b06528de535fc.pdf

موسسه پژوهش های برنامه ریزی، اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه روستایی اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه 1022-4211 33 2 2025 08 23 Identification and Ranking of Productivity Indexes of Agricultural Machinery in Horticulture and Agronomy Sectors: A Case Study of Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari Province, Iran شناسایی و رتبه‌بندی شاخص‌های بهره‌وری ماشین‌آلات کشاورزی در بخش باغداری و زراعت در استان چهارمحال و بختیاری 77 102 132205 10.30490/aead.2025.367252.1633 FA سجاد کریمی کیا دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد مدیریت دولتی، دانشکده علوم انسانی، دانشگاه پیام نور، ایران. مهدی محمدی دانشیار گروه مدیریت، دانشکده علوم انسانی، دانشگاه پیام نور، ایران Journal Article 2024 10 19 Introduction: The adoption of mechanization and the careful selection of appropriate technologies is a strategic approach to addressing resource constraints and food insecurity in the agricultural sector. These technologies must be evaluated and implemented by researchers, stakeholders, and decision-makers within the agricultural domain to ensure their relevance, sustainability, and efficiency. The rapid growth in global population, the increasing demand for food, and the limited availability of arable land and water resources have made it imperative to find more effective ways of enhancing agricultural productivity, the potential of which is found in the mechanization by reducing human labor, optimizing time, and enabling large-scale cultivation. However, the benefits of mechanization can only be fully realized when the machinery used is appropriate to the local conditions and when its use is optimized through proper planning and management. A critical step in achieving this goal is ‘identifying and ranking’ the factors affecting the productivity of agricultural machinery. Understanding these factors can provide a suitable foundation for optimizing the use of available resources, reducing operational costs, and increasing the efficiency and effectiveness of machinery use in agricultural processes. Despite its importance, there has been insufficient investigation into identifying these influencing factors and resolving the challenges associated with machinery inefficiencies in specific local contexts. So, this research aimed to address that gap by identifying and ranking the productivity indicators of agricultural machinery in the horticulture and agronomy sectors of Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province of Iran. This region, known for its diverse agricultural practices and dependency on crop production for economic sustainability, provides a unique case study for understanding how machinery performance can be enhanced through a data-driven and participatory approach. Material and Methods: In order to gather comprehensive and reliable data, a combination of qualitative and quantitative research methods was employed. The Delphi method, sequential exploratory method, and various statistical analysis techniques were utilized to ensure the accuracy and depth of findings. The Delphi method, in particular, is well-suited for eliciting expert opinion and reaching consensus on complex issues. Questionnaires were distributed among a diverse group of stakeholders, including university professors, technical experts, managers of governmental agricultural organizations, local farmers, and agricultural producers. These individuals were selected based on their experience and familiarity with agricultural machinery and local farming practices.<span dir="RTL" style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 97%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1;"> The collected data were analyzed and validated using MaxQDA software, which helped identify and categorize nineteen main codes. These codes were grouped into two broad sets and further divided into six distinct subsets, based on their thematic and functional similarities. To assess the influence and interdependence of these indicators, and to determine their relative importance, the fuzzy Decision Network Process (DNP) technique was used. This technique allows for more nuanced decision-making by incorporating uncertainty and ambiguity, which are often present in expert-based assessments. Results and Discussion: The study analysis revealed that the most critical factor influencing the productivity of agricultural machinery was ‘its design and its interaction with the cultivated land’. This finding underscores the importance of tailoring machinery design to suit the specific characteristics of local soil types, topography, crop types, and climatic conditions. Poorly designed machinery that does not align with these variables can lead to decreased efficiency, higher fuel consumption, increased wear and tear, and ultimately, a reduction in crop yield. Following machinery design, the second most significant factor identified was ‘management and planning optimization’. Effective planning and proper management of machinery usage (such as scheduling maintenance, coordinating operations with crop cycles, and optimizing routes and field operations) can greatly enhance machinery performance and longevity.<span dir="RTL" style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 97%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1;"> Among the six subsets identified, the performance criterion was found to be the most impactful, carrying a relative weight of 38 percent. This criterion encompasses several key performance indicators such as output efficiency, operational time, maintenance frequency, and reliability. The needs and conditions adjustment criterion ranked second with a weight of 15 percent, highlighting the importance of aligning machinery use with local agricultural needs and environmental conditions. Machinery efficiency followed closely, with a 14 percent impact, reflecting the overall operational output of the machines relative to the resources used.<span dir="RTL" style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 97%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1;"> In the second subset, the efficiency of agricultural machinery once again emerged as a key factor, with a 14 percent influence. This was followed by the machinery application index at 11.5 percent, which includes the suitability of machinery for various farming operations such as plowing, planting, harvesting, and irrigation. Lastly, the provision of financial resources held a 7.8 percent impact, emphasizing the role of financial support and access to funding in the procurement, maintenance, and upgrading of machinery. Conclusion and Suggestions: The comprehensive identification and examination of the factors affecting agricultural machinery performance are crucial for optimizing efficiency, reducing costs, and improving productivity. This study sought to accomplish that by focusing on the horticultural and agronomic sectors in Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province of Iran. By employing a multi-method approach that included the Delphi technique, statistical analysis, and fuzzy DNP modeling, the research was able to uncover and prioritize a wide array of indicators influencing machinery productivity.<span dir="RTL" style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 97%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1;"> The identified factors were categorized into two main groups: dependent and independent. The dependent category included financial and performance-related factors, while the independent category comprised design and fabrication, technical specifications, and operational applications. The study findings indicated that the dependent category— especially, performance-related factors— had a more significant impact on overall machinery effectiveness and therefore, would deserve further research and investment.<span dir="RTL" style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 97%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1;"> The implications of this study are far-reaching. Policymakers, agricultural machinery manufacturers, and local producers can use these insights to improve machinery design, enhance training programs, allocate resources more efficiently, and promote policies that support sustainable agricultural development. By focusing on these productivity indicators and their prioritization, stakeholders can work towards a more resilient, efficient, and food-secure agricultural system in the region. <span lang="FA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 85%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-bidi-language: FA;">شناسایی عوامل مؤثر بر بهره‌وری ماشین‌آلات و رتبه‌<span dir="LTR" lang="FA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 85%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-bidi-language: FA;">‎<span lang="FA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 85%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-bidi-language: FA;">بندی آنها، به‏ منظور ایجاد بستر مناسب و انطباق با اراضی زیر کشت برای بهبود کارآیی، نقشی مهم در مدیریت و استفاده صحیح از منابع دارد. اگرچه مطالعاتی در این زمینه انجام ‌شده، اما به شناسایی و رفع چالش‌ها چندان پرداخته نشده<span dir="LTR" lang="FA" style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 85%; font-family: 'Times New Roman',serif; mso-bidi-font-family: 'B Mitra'; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-bidi-language: FA;"> <span lang="FA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 85%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-bidi-language: FA;">است. هدف پژوهش حاضر شناسایی و رتبه‌بندی شاخص‌های بهره‌وری ماشین‌آلات کشاورزی در بخش زراعت و باغداری استان چهارمحال و بختیاری بود. بدین منظور، از روش‌ اکتشافی متوالی و شیوة‌‌ آماری استفاده شد و گردآوری داده‌ها با استفاده از روش دلفی از جامعه آماری شامل افراد باتجربه از اساتید دانشگاه، کارشناسان، مدیران سازمان‌های دولتی، کشاورزان و باغداران صورت گرفت و تا زمان به اجماع رسیدن نظرات ادامه یافت. نتایج به‌دست‏‌آمده با استفاده از نرم‌افزار مکس- کیودا شامل نوزده کد اصلی در دو مجموعه و شش زیرمجموعه توسط متخصصان مورد تأیید قرار گرفت. آنگاه با بهره‏‌گیری از شیوة دنپ فازی، به بررسی تأثیرگذاری و تأثیرپذیری شاخص‌ها بر یکدیگر و سپس، اولویت‌بندی آنها پرداخته شد. نتایج پژوهش نشان داد که مهم‏ترین شاخص تأثیرگذار در بهره‌وری ماشین‌آلات «طراحی و ساخت ماشین‌آلات و انطباق آنها با اراضی زیر کشت» است و پس از آن، شاخص «مدیریت و برنامه‌ریزی بهینه» بیشترین تأثیرگذاری را در بهره‌وری ماشین‌آلات دارد؛ همچنین، در بین شش زیرمعیار شناسایی‏ شده، به‌ترتیب، معیار عملکردی با درصد وزنی حدود 38، معیار متناسب با نیاز و شرایط با 15 درصد و کارآیی ماشین‌آلات کشاورزی با 14 درصد در رتبه‏‌های اول تا سوم جای دارند؛ در شاخص دوم<span lang="FA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 85%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-bidi-language: FA;"> نیز <span lang="FA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 85%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-bidi-language: FA;">به‌ترتیب، کارآیی ماشین‌آلات کشاورزی با وزن<span lang="FA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 85%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1;"> <span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 85%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1;">14 درصد<span lang="FA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 85%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-bidi-language: FA;">، استفاده مناسب از ماشین‌آلات با وزن 11/5 درصد و تأمین منابع مالی با وزن 7/8 درصد شناسایی شدند. با توجه به نتایج پژوهش حاضر، پیشنهاد می‏‌شود که <span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 85%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; letter-spacing: -.1pt;">طراحی و تولید ماشین‌آلات کشاورزی با بهره‏‌گیری از فناوری‌های نوین و متناسب با شرایط اقلیمی<span lang="FA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 85%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; letter-spacing: -.1pt; mso-bidi-language: FA;"> صورت گیرد؛<span lang="FA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 85%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; letter-spacing: -.1pt;"> <span lang="FA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 85%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; letter-spacing: -.1pt; mso-bidi-language: FA;">نمایندگی‌های تخصصی برای تعمیر و نگهداری ماشین‌آلات توسط بخش‌های دولتی و خصوصی تقویت شوند؛ آموزش به بهره‌‏برداران جدی‏‌تر دنبال شود؛ روحیه کار گروهی در میان آنها ترویج یابد؛ تعاونی‏‌های ارائه‌‏دهندة خدمات مکانیزاسیون گسترش یابند؛ همچنین، به‌‏منظور افزایش بهره‌‏وری ماشین‌‏آلات تولیدی، نتایج پژوهش‌‏ها با بخش صنعت ماشین‌‏آلات کشاورزی به اشتراک گذاشته شود و در پژوهش‌‏های آتی پیرامون ماشین‌‏آلات کشاورزی، بررسی روابط کلی و رویکرد استقرایی بیشتر مد نظر قرار گیرد.

http://aead.agri-peri.ac.ir/article_132205_c11159d8ff931518c68a4bbe553d925c.pdf

موسسه پژوهش های برنامه ریزی، اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه روستایی اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه 1022-4211 33 2 2025 08 23 The Role of Human Development, Fossil and Renewable Energy Consumption, and Climate Change in Iran’s Food Security بررسی نقش توسعه انسانی، مصرف انرژی‏‌های فسیلی و تجدیدپذیر و تغییر اقلیم در امنیت غذایی ایران 103 136 132215 10.30490/aead.2025.367320.1642 FA علیرضا سرگزی استادیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه زابل، زابل، ایران هستی پارسا منفرد دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه زابل، زابل، ایران Journal Article 2024 11 17 Introduction: Ensuring food security— both in terms of quantity and quality—remains a strategic priority for most nations, particularly developing countries facing multifaceted environmental and socio-economic challenges. Iran, characterized by its growing population, urbanization, limited water resources, and vulnerability to climate change, is no exception. These issues, coupled with sanctions and resource mismanagement, have intensified the urgency for policy interventions to sustain and enhance food production systems. This study aimed at investigating the intricate and nonlinear relationship between food security and several influential factors including Human Development Index (HDI), energy consumption from renewable and non-renewable sources, carbon dioxide emissions (as a proxy for climate change), and labor force participation in the agricultural sector. Understanding the asymmetrical impact of these factors over time is essential for formulating robust policies that ensure sustainable food access and resilience against future shocks. Materials and Methods: This research used annual time-series data from 1990 to 2022 to analyze the dynamic relationships between food security and its potential determinants in Iran. The dependent variable was Food Production Index (FPI), which serves as a proxy for food security. The independent variables included: HDI (Human Development Index), reflecting education, health, and income dimensions; LENE (Log of Non-Renewable Energy Consumption), measured by energy used in the agricultural sector; RNE (Renewable Energy Consumption), expressed as a percentage of total energy consumption; LCO2 (Log of CO₂ Emissions), as a measure of environmental degradation and climate change; and LLAB (Log of Labor in Agriculture), representing workforce capacity in food production. All data were obtained from credible sources such as the World Bank, UNDP, FAO, and OECD. The variables were logarithmically transformed for normalization and to allow for elasticity interpretation. Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model was employed as the econometric methodology. This approach enables the differentiation between the effects of positive and negative shocks (asymmetries) in the explanatory variables on food security, both in the short and long runs. Unit root tests (ADF and PP), BDS nonlinearity tests, bounds testing for cointegration, and diagnostic checks (CUSUM, CUSUMSQ) were applied to ensure the robustness and stability of the model. Results and Discussion: The estimation results highlighted the asymmetric effects of various socio-economic and environmental factors on the food security in Iran. A positive shock in HDI would improve the food security by 3.09 percent, underscoring the importance of education and healthcare in enhancing agricultural productivity. Conversely, a negative HDI shock would cause a sharp 17.06 percent decline, revealing significant vulnerability to social setbacks. In addition, negative shocks in non-renewable energy consumption (LENE) would reduce the food security by 0.34 percent, emphasizing the role of energy access in agriculture, while positive shocks would be statistically insignificant due to potential environmental trade-offs. Similarly, the negative shocks in renewable energy consumption (RNE) would reduce the food security by 0.3 percent, pointing to the sector’s dependency on stable renewable inputs, whereas the positive shocks would remain insignificant, reflecting the underdeveloped role of renewables in agriculture. Interestingly, both the positive and negative shocks in CO₂ emissions would slightly improve the food security (by 0.21 and 0.39 percent, respectively), possibly due to short-term fertilization effects, despite long-term ecological concerns. In terms of labor, the positive shocks would increase the food security by 0.89 percent, and the negative shocks would reduce it by 0.78 percent, reaffirming the labor-intensive nature of Iranian agriculture. Granger causality tests further confirmed a bidirectional relationship between CO₂ emissions and the food security, unidirectional causality from HDI, RNE, and LENE to the food security, and reverse causality from the food security to the labor. These results underlined the complex and asymmetric dynamics shaping the food security, influenced by socio-economic development, energy use, and environmental pressures. Conclusion and Suggestions: The study concluded that improving human development indicators, expanding the share of renewable energy in agriculture, and maintaining a stable agricultural workforce were vital for enhancing the food security in Iran. The positive effects of CO₂ emissions, while notable in the short term, should not distract policymakers from the long-term risks of climate change. To mitigate vulnerabilities and build resilience, several policy recommendations are made as follows: · Enhancing education, healthcare, and income equity to improve HDI; · Reducing dependence on fossil fuels and investing in renewable energy technologies for agricultural use; · Developing adaptive agricultural systems resilient to climate variability; and · Supporting rural employment programs and reversing urban migration by improving rural livelihoods. <span style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.0pt; line-height: 107%; font-family: 'Times New Roman',serif; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: 'B Mitra'; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: FA;">Given Iran’s geopolitical challenges and environmental limitations, these strategies must be pursued through coordinated government planning and international cooperation. <span dir="RTL" lang="FA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: FA;">حفظ امنیت غذایی از ابعاد کمی و کیفی از اهداف مهمی است که بسیاری از کشورها به ‏دنبال تحقق آن هستند. در این مسیر، چالش‌هایی نظیر تغییرات اقلیم (آب‌‏وهوایی)، رشد جمعیت، شهرنشینی و کمیابی منابع وجود دارد که دستیابی بدین هدف را با مشکلاتی موجه می‌سازد. ایران به ‏عنوان کشوری در حال توسعه نیز در مسیر حفظ امنیت غذایی، با چالش‌‏های متعدد مواجه است. بنابراین، شناسایی موانع تحقق امنیت غذایی و عوامل تقویت‌کننده آن بسیار ضروری است. مطالعه حاضر، با استفاده از داده‌‏های 1990 تا 2022 و با بهره‌‏گیری از رهیافت <span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; font-family: 'Times New Roman',serif; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: 'B Mitra'; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: FA;">NARDL<span dir="RTL" lang="FA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: FA;">، به‏ دنبال بررسی اثرات انرژی‏‌های تجدیدناپذیر و تجدیدپذیر، شاخص توسعه انسانی، نیروی کار و تغییرات اقلیم شامل انتشار گاز دی‌‏اکسید کربن (<span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; font-family: 'Times New Roman',serif; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: 'B Mitra'; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: FA;">CO2<span dir="RTL" lang="FA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: FA;">) بر امنیت غذایی شامل شاخص تولید غذا بود. نتایج پژوهش نشان داد که تکانة (شوک) مثبت شاخص توسعة انسانی اثری مستقیم و تکانة منفی این شاخص اثری معکوس بر امنیت غذایی دارد. همچنین، تکانة منفی انرژی تجدیدناپذیر و انرژی تجدیدپذیر، به‏ ترتیب، اثری معکوس و مستقیم بر امنیت غذایی خواهد داشت، به‏‌گونه‌‏ای که با کاهش یک درصدی مصرف انرژی تجدیدناپذیر و تجدیدپذیر، به‏‌ترتیب، امنیت غذایی به میزان 0/34 درصد افزایش و 0/3 درصد کاهش خواهد یافت. تکانه‏‌های مثبت و منفی انتشار گاز دی‌‏اکسید کربن (co2<span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; font-family: 'Times New Roman',serif; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: 'B Mitra'; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: FA;">CO2<span dir="RTL" lang="FA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: FA;">) به‏‌عنوان جانشین (پراکسی) تغییرات اقلیم اثری مثبت بر امنیت غذایی نشان داده و با یک درصد افزایش انتشار این گاز، امنیت غذایی، به‏‌ترتیب، 0/21 و 0/39 درصد افزایش خواهد یافت. در نهایت، نیروی کار نیز به‏ عنوان یکی از عوامل بهبود امنیت غذایی شناسایی شد، چراکه با کاهش یک درصدی این متغیر، امنیت غذایی 0/78 درصد کاهش خواهد یافت. نتایج آزمون علیت نیز رابطه علّی دوطرفه میان تغییرات اقلیم و امنیت غذایی را تأیید کرد. به‏‌منظور تحقق اهداف ارتقای امنیت غذایی و کاهش آلودگی، برنامه‌ریزی در راستای <span dir="RTL" lang="AR-SA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">کاهش مصرف کودها و آفت‌کش‌‏های شیمیایی و افزایش مصرف کود‏های آلی و پبگیری برنامه‌‏های مرتبط با کنترل آفات، افزایش تولید و مصرف انرژی‌‏های پاک و تولید محصولات اصلاح‌شدة ژنتیکی کشاورزی با قابلیت مقاومت بالا در برابر آفات و تغییرات اقلیم، ضمن ارتقای کیفیت محیط زیست، به حفظ امنیت غذایی نیز کمک خواهد کرد.

http://aead.agri-peri.ac.ir/article_132215_a718aaee879ee11bd01b2267d474d09f.pdf

موسسه پژوهش های برنامه ریزی، اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه روستایی اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه 1022-4211 33 2 2025 08 23 Studying Different Dimensions of Social Sustainability from the Perspective of Stakeholders in Rice Production in Langrud County of Iran مطالعه ابعاد مختلف پایداری اجتماعی از نگاه ذی‏نفعان در تولید برنج شهرستان لنگرود 137 167 132221 10.30490/aead.2025.367377.1656 FA فاطمه فیضی دانش‌آموخته کارشناسی ارشد، گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده علوم کشاورزی، دانشگاه گیلان، رشت، ایران رضا اسفنجاری کناری استادیار اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده علوم کشاورزی‬، دانشگاه گیلان محمد کریم معتمد دانشیار، گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده علوم کشاورزی، دانشگاه گیلان، گیلان، ایران Journal Article 2025 01 26 <span style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.0pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: 'Times New Roman',serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'B Mitra'; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: FA;">Introduction:<span style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.0pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: 'Times New Roman',serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'B Mitra'; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: FA;"> <span lang="EN" style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.0pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: 'Times New Roman',serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'B Mitra'; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: FA;">Social Life Cycle Assessment (SLCA) is an emerging methodology designed to evaluate the social impacts of products and services throughout their life cycles. Particularly pertinent to sectors like agriculture and food production, SLCA provides a framework for assessing how products influence various social aspects, including labor conditions, community well-being, and human rights. In the context of sustainable development, SLCA serves as a vital tool for producers and consumers alike, enabling more informed decision-making that considers not only environmental but also social dimensions. By integrating social considerations into the life cycle assessment, stakeholders can identify areas for improvement, promote ethical practices, and contribute to the overall enhancement of societal welfare. The publication of the UNEP/SETAC guidelines for SLCA in 2009 marked a significant milestone in standardizing the assessment process. These guidelines provided a structured approach to evaluating social impacts, facilitating consistency and comparability across studies. As a result, researchers and practitioners gained a clearer understanding of how products and services affect social systems, leading to more effective strategies for mitigating negative impacts and enhancing positive outcomes. Beyond its role in improving social conditions, SLCA also fosters greater awareness among individuals and organizations regarding the social implications of their choices. This heightened consciousness encourages the adoption of socially responsible practices, thereby advancing social sustainability objectives. <span style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.0pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman',serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'B Mitra'; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-bidi-language: FA;">Materials and Methods: <span style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.0pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman',serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'B Mitra'; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-bidi-language: FA;">This study was conducted in Langrud County, located in Guilan province of Iran, during 2024. The primary objective of the study was to assess the social impacts of rice production using the SLCA methodology. A total of 417 participants were selected through random sampling from five distinct stakeholder groups including 51 rice mill managers, 81 rice mill workers, 95 rice farmers, 95 rice field workers, and 96 local community members. These groups were chosen to capture a comprehensive range of perspectives on the social impacts associated with rice production. The assessment focused on four key social indicators including (1) human rights, (2) working conditions, (3) cultural heritage and community development, (4) socio-economic consequences. These indicators were selected to provide a holistic view of the social dimensions of rice production, encompassing aspects such as labor rights, community cohesion, and economic well-being. <span lang="EN" style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.0pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman',serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'B Mitra'; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN;">Results and <span style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.0pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman',serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'B Mitra'; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1;">Discussion<span lang="EN" style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.0pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman',serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'B Mitra'; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN;">: <span lang="EN" style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.0pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman',serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'B Mitra'; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN;">The study findings revealed that overall, the social conditions governing the rice production cycle in Langrud County were favorable. However, disparities existed among different stakeholder groups concerning specific social indicators. Notably, rice field workers reported poor working conditions, highlighting issues such as inadequate safety measures, long working hours, and insufficient access to protective equipment. These conditions not only jeopardize the health and well-being of workers, but also contravene basic labor rights standards. In the realm of cultural heritage and community development, the local community expressed concerns about the migration of indigenous people. The outflow of local populations threatens the preservation of traditional knowledge, cultural practices, and community identity. This trend underscores the need for policies that promote community retention and cultural sustainability. Addressing these issues requires a multifaceted approach, including the implementation of labor rights protections, community engagement initiatives, and policies that support sustainable development practices. By fostering an environment that values and upholds social well-being, the rice production sector can contribute to broader social sustainability goals. <span lang="EN" style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.0pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman',serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'B Mitra'; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN;"> <span style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.0pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman',serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'B Mitra'; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-bidi-language: FA;"><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.0pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: 'Times New Roman',serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'B Mitra'; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">Conclusion and Suggestions:<span lang="EN" style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.0pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: 'Times New Roman',serif; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: 'B Mitra'; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;"> <span style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.0pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: 'Times New Roman',serif; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: 'B Mitra'; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">The study underscores the importance of integrating social considerations into the life cycle assessment of agricultural products. While Langrud County’s rice production cycle exhibits overall favorable social conditions, significant challenges persist, particularly concerning working conditions and community development. To address these challenges, the following recommendations are proposed: enhancing labor rights awareness: implementation of training programs for workers to educate them about their rights and available protections; improving working conditions: introduction of safety protocols, provision of protective equipment, and regulation of working hours to safeguard worker health and well-being; promoting community retention: development of policies that incentivize local populations to remain in their communities, thereby preservation of cultural heritage and fostering community development; and encouraging the stakeholder collaboration: facilitation of dialogue among the stakeholders, including producers, workers, and community members, to collaboratively address social issues and develop sustainable solutions. By implementing these recommendations, the rice production sector in Langrud County can enhance its social sustainability, contributing to the overall well-being of its stakeholders and the preservation of its cultural heritage <span dir="RTL" lang="AR-SA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">ارزیابی چرخه زندگی اجتماعی <span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: 'Times New Roman',serif; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: 'B Mitra'; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">(SLCA)<span dir="RTL" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;"> به‌عنوان ابزاری نوین در ارزیابی تأثیرات اجتماعی محصولات، به‌ویژه در صنایع کشاورزی و غذایی، مطرح شده است. این رویکرد با شناسایی و اندازه‌گیری تأثیرات اجتماعی این‏گونه محصولات، از جمله شرایط کاری و تأثیرات آنها بر جوامع محلی، به تولیدکنندگان و مصرف‌کنندگان کمک می‌کند تا با اتخاذ تصمیمات<span dir="RTL" lang="FA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: FA;">ی<span dir="RTL" lang="FA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;"> <span dir="RTL" lang="AR-SA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">آگاهانه‌تر، کیفیت زندگی افراد را بهبود بخشند<span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: 'Times New Roman',serif; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: 'B Mitra'; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">.<span dir="RTL" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;"> انتشار دستورالعمل‌های <span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: 'Times New Roman',serif; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: 'B Mitra'; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">SLCA<span dir="RTL" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;"> در سال <span dir="RTL" lang="FA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: FA;">۲۰۰۹<span dir="RTL" lang="FA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;"> <span dir="RTL" lang="AR-SA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">فرآیندها را استاندارد کرده و به پژوهشگران امکان درک دقیق‌تر تأثیرات اجتماعی محصولات را داده است. توجه به ابعاد اجتماعی چرخه زندگی محصولات نه‌تنها به بهبود شرایط زیست‌محیطی کمک می‌کند، بلکه مسئولیت اجتماعی را نیز ترویج می‌دهد، که خود به افزایش آگاهی از تأثیرات اجتماعی محصولات و خدمات می‌‏انجامد و به افراد و سازمان‌ها این امکان را می‌دهد که نقشی مؤثرتر در پایداری اجتماعی ایفا کنند. در مطالعه حاضر، به بررسی تأثیرات اجتماعی تولید برنج با استفاده از ارزیابی چرخه زندگی اجتماعی (<span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: 'Times New Roman',serif; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: 'B Mitra'; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">SLCA<span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: 'Times New Roman',serif; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: 'B Mitra'; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">SLCA<span dir="RTL" lang="AR-SA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">) در شهرستان لنگرود استان گیلان در سال <span dir="RTL" lang="FA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: FA;">۱۴۰۳<span dir="RTL" lang="FA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;"> <span dir="RTL" lang="AR-SA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">پرداخته شد. بذین منظور، <span dir="RTL" lang="FA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: FA;">۴۱۷<span dir="RTL" lang="FA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;"> <span dir="RTL" lang="AR-SA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">نمونه از پنج گروه ذی‏نفع شامل مدیران کارخانه‌های شالی‌کوبی (<span dir="RTL" lang="FA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: FA;">پنجاه<span dir="RTL" lang="FA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;"> <span dir="RTL" lang="AR-SA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">نفر)، کارگران کارخانه‌های شالی‌کوبی (<span dir="RTL" lang="FA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: FA;">۸۱<span dir="RTL" lang="FA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;"> <span dir="RTL" lang="AR-SA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">نفر)، شالی‏کاران (<span dir="RTL" lang="FA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: FA;">۹۵<span dir="RTL" lang="FA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;"> <span dir="RTL" lang="AR-SA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">نفر)، کارگران شالیزارها (<span dir="RTL" lang="FA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: FA;">۹۵<span dir="RTL" lang="FA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;"> <span dir="RTL" lang="AR-SA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">نفر) و جوامع محلی (<span dir="RTL" lang="FA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: FA;">۹۶<span dir="RTL" lang="FA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;"> <span dir="RTL" lang="AR-SA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">نفر) به‌صورت تصادفی انتخاب شدند؛ همچنین، ارزیابی چهار شاخص اجتماعی برای بررسی تأثیرات اجتماعی تولید برنج صورت گرفت، که عبارت بودند از «حقوق بشر»، «شرایط کاری<span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: 'Times New Roman',serif; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: 'B Mitra'; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">«<span dir="RTL" lang="AR-SA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">، <span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: 'Times New Roman',serif; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: 'B Mitra'; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">»<span dir="RTL" lang="AR-SA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">میراث فرهنگی و توسعه جامعه» و «پیامدهای اجتماعی- اقتصادی». نتایج پژوهش نشان داد که شرایط اجتماعی حاکم بر چرخه تولید برنج در شهرستان لنگرود مطلوب است؛ با این حال، برخی شاخص‌های شرایط کاری در شالیزارها نامطلوب ارزیابی شدند؛ کارگران نیز از حقوق پایه‌ای خود آگاهی ندارند، که منجر به نارضایتی و اختلافات بین کارگران و کارفرمایان شده است. بنابراین، اگر نابرابری‌های دستمزد و شکاف جنسیتی کاهش یابد، با بهبود رفاه خانوارها، نیروی کار پایدارتر خواهد شد. افزایش رضایت شغلی کارگران، همچنین، می‌تواند منجر به بهبود پایداری اجتماعی شود.

http://aead.agri-peri.ac.ir/article_132221_27c35bd983f01b2ec89839a0db98cf46.pdf

موسسه پژوهش های برنامه ریزی، اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه روستایی اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه 1022-4211 33 2 2025 08 23 Introducing a Mathematical Programming Model for Agricultural Land Management in Rudpey District of Sari County in order to Improve Food Security معرفی یک مدل برنامه‌ریزی ریاضی برای مدیریت اراضی زراعی بخش رودپی شهرستان ساری در راستای بهبود امنیت غذایی 169 195 132210 10.30490/aead.2025.367310.1637 FA فاطمه کشیری کلائی استادیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری، ساری، ایران. 0000-0003-4439-5051 سمیه شیرزادی لسکوکلایه استادیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری، ساری، ایران. 0000-0002-9084-4965 Journal Article 2024 11 02 Introduction: Iran is considered one of the high-risk regions in terms of food security, which also requires imports to secure its food, including grains. In this regard, the country's top documents have also considered food security as one of the priorities. Food insecurity can lead to social and political instability in different systems. Therefore, ensuring food security in any country is one of the basic conditions for ensuring national security. In this regard, agricultural production plays a significant role in food security, but increasing agricultural production sometimes requires the use of more inputs. Given the limited resources for agricultural production, optimizing the use of those resources should be considered in order to achieve important goals. On the other hand, excessive cultivation of crops such as rice, despite generating high income for farmers, may lead to neglecting the sufficient production of crops such as wheat, barley, and oilseeds, which play a significant role in food security. For this reason, it is necessary to design a model to provide an appropriate cultivation pattern containing products from all groups. In addition to the importance of the quality of the products produced in terms of calories and nutrients, the production of some products, such as oilseeds, is also essential. According to the above, planners usually face multiple goals in determining the optimal cropping pattern. In this study, goal programming model has been used to optimize the cultivation of major crops in the Rudpey District of Sari County, but its main difference from other studies is the goal of improving food security by considering calories and nutrients in products such as protein, iron, calcium, potassium, and magnesium. This study also paid attention to the development of oilseed cultivation in order to create a safety margin in oil production. Materials and Methods: In this study, the goal programming method was used to achieve the goals. The desired goals include increasing gross margin, reducing fertilizer consumption, increasing calorie and nutrient production, increasing total production and increasing oil production. It is important to note that the limiting inputs considered include land, water, and capital. The crops studied are also irrigated and include Tarom paddy rice, Shirodi paddy rice, wheat, rapeseed, barley, and soybeans. The required data is related to the agricultural year 2021-2022, which was collected by referring to the agricultural service center of the investigated sector and also the website of the Ministry of Agricultural Jihad. GAMS software was used to solve the ideal model. Results and Discussion: The results indicate that considering all the above-mentioned ideals, the cultivation area of Tarom paddy rice, wheat, rapeseed and soybean has increased compared to the current cropping pattern, while it is suggested that the cultivation area of Shirodi paddy rice should be reduced. However, comparing the optimal cropping pattern in the studied scenarios with the current cropping pattern showed that the optimal cropping pattern is close to the current cultivation pattern. In other words, the farmers of the Rudpey District operate almost optimally. This result is more in terms of fertilizer consumption and profit achievement, so that the proposed cropping pattern has reduced fertilizer consumption by one percent and increased profit by a maximum of two percent. In other words, it can be said that farmers implement an economically appropriate cultivation pattern in the region, and the changes in the optimal cropping pattern compared to the current pattern were probably due to the objectives of oil and calorie production, so that the proposed cropping pattern leads to an 8 percent increase in oil production and an increase of about 3 percent in calorie production. Conclusion: The results of this study showed that in the Rudpey District of Sari County, the existing cropping pattern of the region is not an optimal pattern in terms of achieving the goals of maximizing profit, maximizing calories and micronutrients, maximizing oil production, and minimizing chemical fertilizer consumption, but it is close to the optimal cultivation pattern. In fact, it can be said that in terms of achieving profit, the current cropping pattern of farmers in the studied region is not much different from the optimal pattern. In fact, despite the lack of sufficient knowledge, farmers implement an almost appropriate cultivation pattern in the region due to their experimental skills. The highest percentage of cultivation changes was related to barley and rice crops, and by assigning a higher weight to profit, soybean cultivation also experienced noticeable changes. Considering that one of the important goals in this study was an 8% increase in oil production, based on the results, this goal can be achieved by changing the share of rapeseed and soybean cultivation. According to the results of this study, increasing the cultivation level of Tarom paddy rice and wheat compared to other crops can be in line with providing food for the community. Therefore, developing the cultivation of these crops in the Rudpey District of Sari County is recommended due to their special role in providing food for the community. On the other hand, developing oilseed cultivation requires giving up a portion of the profit, which requires the government to provide incentives and subsidies to make the production of these products more economical in order to develop the cultivation of these products and reduce dependence on imports. <span dir="RTL" lang="AR-SA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">تأمین امنیت غذایی از رسالت‌های فعالیت کشاورزی بوده و گاه تحقق آن مستلزم به‌کارگیری نهاده‌های بیشتر است. با توجه به منابع محدود برای تولیدات کشاورزی، به‌منظور دستیابی به اهداف مهم، باید بهینه‌سازی مصرف این‏گونه منابع مد نظر قرار گیرد.<span dir="RTL" lang="AR-SA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;"> <span dir="RTL" lang="AR-SA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">هدف مطالعه حاضر معرفی یک مدل برنامه‌ریزی آرمانی به‌‏منظور تخصیص بهینه اراضی زراعی به محصولات منتخب در راستای بهبود امنیت غذایی در بخش رودپی شهرستان ساری <span dir="RTL" lang="FA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: FA;">بود<span dir="RTL" lang="AR-SA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">. آرمان‌های مد نظر نیز افزایش سود، کاهش مصرف کود، افزایش تولید کالری و مواد مغذی، افزایش تولید کل و افزایش تولید روغن را شامل می‏‌شد. همچنین، داده‌های مورد نیاز مربوط به سال زراعی 1401-1400 بود. <span dir="RTL" lang="FA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: FA;">نتایج پژوهش نشان داد که با در نظر گرفتن تمام آرمان‌های یادشده، با بهره‌‏گیری از<span dir="RTL" lang="AR-SA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;"> یک مدل برنامه‌ریزی آرمانی،<span dir="RTL" lang="AR-SA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: FA;"> <span dir="RTL" lang="FA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: FA;">در مقایسه با الگوی کشت کنونی، سطح کشت شلتوک شیرودی کاهش و اما سطح کشت شلتوک طارم، گندم، کلزا و سویا افزایش می‌یابد؛ با این همه، <span dir="RTL" lang="AR-SA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">مقایسه الگوی کشت بهینه در سناریوهای مورد بررسی با الگوی کشت کنونی نشان داد که الگوی کشت بهینه به الگوی کشت کنونی نزدیک است. این <span dir="RTL" lang="FA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: FA;">نتیجه<span dir="RTL" lang="AR-SA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;"> بیشتر از جنبه مصرف کود و دستیابی به سود بوده، به‏‌گونه‏‌ای که با به‏‌کارگیری <span dir="RTL" lang="FA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: FA;">الگوی کشت پیشنهادی، مصرف کود تا یک درصد کاهش و سود حداکثر تا دو درصد افزایش یافته است.<span dir="RTL" lang="FA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;"> <span dir="RTL" lang="FA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: FA;">به دیگر سخن، می‌توان گفت که به لحاظ اقتصادی، الگوی کشت اجرایی کشاورزان در منطقه تقریباً مناسب بوده و <span dir="RTL" lang="AR-SA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">تغییرات الگوی کشت بهینه احتمالاً به‌‏دلیل لحاظ آرمان‌های تولید روغن و کالری است،<span dir="RTL" lang="AR-SA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: FA;"> <span dir="RTL" lang="FA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: FA;">به‏‌گونه‏‌ای که الگوی کشت پیشنهادی به افزایش هشت درصدی تولید روغن و افزایش حدود سه درصدی تولید کالری می‌انجامد. با توجه به نتایج تحقیق حاضر، پیروی از الگوی کشت پیشنهادی می‌تواند به بهبود امنیت غذایی کمک کند. از این‌‏رو، پیشنهاد می‌شود که نهادهای مربوط، با اتخاذ سیاست‌ها و اعطای مشوق‌های مناسب و نیز ارائه آموزش‌های لازم به کشاورزان، الگوی بهینه پژوهش حاضر را در منطقه مورد مطالعه ترویج دهند..

http://aead.agri-peri.ac.ir/article_132210_d1699232b2999f560e12502bff8098bf.pdf

موسسه پژوهش های برنامه ریزی، اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه روستایی اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه 1022-4211 33 2 2025 08 23 A Strategic Approach to Water Resource Efficiency and Sustainable Agriculture in Arid Regions: The Role of Oleaster کشت سنجد، راهبردی کلیدی برای افزایش بهره وری منابع آب و حفظ پایداری کشاورزی در دشت همدان-بهار 197 238 132224 10.30490/aead.2025.367411.1667 FA وحید کلانتر دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد، گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران 0009-0006-4279-5296 سید حبیب اله موسوی دانشیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران 0000-0002-6280-072X حامد نجفی علمدارلو دانشیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران 0000-0002-5842-7512 Journal Article 2025 03 20 Climate change, as a fundamental challenge of the present century, has exerted significant impacts on the agricultural sector, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions, through reduced rainfall, elevated temperatures, and intensified climatic phenomena. Elaeagnus angustifolia, recognized as a valuable plant species, demonstrates substantial resistance to water stress, including drought. This study aimed to investigate the adaptability of Elaeagnus angustifolia under water stress conditions and to assess its economic potential as a drought-resistant crop in the arid and semi-arid Hamadan-Bahar Plain. Initially, future climate changes were forecasted, followed by simulating the economic impacts of these changes on cropping patterns and the yield of crops and Elaeagnus angustifolia. The results of climate forecasting indicate that the study area will face decreased rainfall and increased temperatures in the future. These climate changes will have mixed effects on crop yields; specifically, Elaeagnus angustifolia yield is projected to increase by 4 to 7 percent across all climate scenarios, while other regional crops will be negatively affected. Economic analyses of the study area revealed that the increased yield of Elaeagnus angustifolia will lead to a 21-hectare expansion of its cultivation area and consequently, a 2.3 billion Tomans increase in the profitability of the agricultural sector. The development of Elaeagnus angustifolia cultivation under water scarcity and global warming conditions can serve as a climate-compatible strategy, significantly contributing to improved water productivity, increased farmers' income, and the sustainability of agricultural systems in the region. تغییر اقلیم به‌عنوان یکی از چالش‌های اساسی قرن حاضر، تأثیرات قابل‌توجهی شامل کاهش بارندگی، افزایش دما و وقوع پدیده‌های اقلیمی شدید بر بخش کشاورزی، به‌ویژه در مناطق خشک و نیمه‌خشک، گذاشته است. سنجد به عنوان یک گونه گیاهی ارزشمند، مقاومت قابل توجهی نسبت به تنش‌های آبی از جمله خشکسالی نشان می‌دهد. این مطالعه با هدف بررسی سازگاری سنجد در شرایط تنش آبی و ارزیابی اقتصادی پتانسیل آن به عنوان یک گیاه مقاوم به خشکسالی در منطقۀ خشک و نیمه‌خشک به نام دشت همدان - بهار انجام شده است. در وهلۀ اول به پیش‌نگری تغییرات آینده اقلیمی و سپس اثرات اقتصادی این تغییرات بر الگوی کشت و عملکرد محصولات زراعی و گیاه سنجد شبیه‌سازی شده است. نتایج حاصل از پیش‌نگری اقلیمی حاکی از آن است که دشت مورد مطالعه در آینده با کاهش بارندگی و افزایش دما مواجه خواهد شد. این تغییرات اقلیمی تأثیرات متناقضی بر عملکرد محصولات زراعی خواهد داشت؛ به طوری که عملکرد سنجد در همه سناریوهای اقلیمی مورد بررسی، به میزان 4 تا 7 درصد افزایش خواهد یافت. در مقابل، سایر محصولات زراعی منطقه تحت تأثیر منفی این تغییرات قرار خواهند گرفت. بر اساس تحلیل‌های اقتصادی دشت مورد مطالعه، افزایش عملکرد سنجد موجب گسترش 21 هکتاری سطح زیر کشت این محصول و در نتیجه، افزایش 2/3 میلیارد تومانی سوددهی بخش کشاورزی خواهد شد. توسعه کشت سنجد در شرایط کم‌آبی و گرمایش جهانی می‌تواند به‌عنوان یک راهکار سازگار با اقلیم، به بهبود بهره‌وری آب، افزایش درآمد کشاورزان و پایداری سیستم‌های کشاورزی در منطقه کمک شایانی کند.

http://aead.agri-peri.ac.ir/article_132224_edd44a8740125c278a8b6c7bf852ebdb.pdf