موسسه پژوهش های برنامه ریزی، اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه روستایی اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه 1022-4211 33 3 2025 11 22 The Effect of Integrated Scheduling of Production and Distribution on the Profit of Tomato Farms: A Case Study of Beyza County of Iran اثر زمان‏بندی یکپارچه تولید و توزیع بر سود مزارع گوجه‌فرنگی: مطالعه موردی شهرستان بیضا 1 25 132222 10.30490/aead.2025.367359.1649 FA حدیث السادات دبیری دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد اقتصادکشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه شیراز، شیراز، ایران زینب شکوهی استادیار اقتصاد کشاورزی ، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه شیراز، شیراز، ایران منصور زیبایی استاد اقتصاد کشاورزی ، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه شیراز، شیراز، ایران محمد حسن طرازکار دانشیار اقتصاد کشاورزی ، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه شیراز، شیراز، ایران Journal Article 2025 01 09 Introduction: Price fluctuations in the agricultural sector are influenced by various factors, such as low shelf life, high degree of perishability, large volume, seasonality, and dependence on weather conditions. These characteristics make the agricultural sector more susceptible to price changes compared to the industrial sector. Managing price fluctuations of agricultural products is crucial for increasing the profitability of farmers. This can be achieved through integrated planning of production and distribution within the sector. Making separate decisions in production and distribution does issues not necessarily lead to optimal profit maximization. Neglecting the integrated planning of production and distribution in the supply chain of agricultural products with special features can result in a decrease in product quality, low profitability for farmers, and consumer dissatisfaction. The concept of integrated production and distribution planning is a strategic approach that aims to improve competitiveness in the production and distribution of goods and services. This involves making coordinated and coherent decisions to meet customer needs and satisfaction, while also optimizing other supply chain objectives such as costs and profits. By utilizing a mathematical programming model, businesses can identify the most profitable market and make informed decisions about the flow of materials, goods, and financial information throughout the supply chain. This includes suppliers, manufacturers, warehouses, and retailers, with the goal of optimizing production and supply in terms of quantity, time, and location. Therefore, this study aimed at investigating the impact of integrated scheduling of production and distribution on the profitability of tomato farmers in Beyza (County) region of Iran. Materials and Methods: In this study, a mathematical programming model was utilized to achieve the above-mentioned goal. Then, according to the average temperature information and the harvesting limitations of the region, a different strategy for planting and harvesting tomatoes was extracted. To accurately determine the expected price, it is necessary to consider both the trend component and the seasonal behavior of the price. This can be achieved by first calculating the actual price and then, incorporating the lowest, highest, and average prices for each week into the model. These three scenarios, representing optimistic, pessimistic, and average expectations, will provide a comprehensive understanding of the expected price. So, the markets analyzed in this study were selected based on the availability of price information in each county. These markets included West Azerbaijan, Ilam, Bushehr, Razavi Khorasan, Sistan and Baluchistan, Kurdistan, Kerman, Kermanshah, Lorestan, Mazandaran, Markazi, Hormozgan, Hamadan, Fars, and Tehran provinces. Results and Discussion: The study results showed that for small farms, the profit varied greatly depending on the price scenarios. In the pessimistic scenario, the farmer could earn 600 million IRI rials per hectare by using the third tomato strategy and selling both harvests in the Bushehr market. However, in the optimistic scenario, the farmer could earn 3690 million IRI rials per hectare by using the first strategy and selling the first and second harvests in Bushehr and Kermanshah markets, respectively. The selected small farmer with one hectare of land earned a realized profit of 14650 million IRI rials per hectare by selling at the farm gate in 2023. Comparing the optimization results of the model with the average expected price scenario, it was evident that the potential profit increased by 40 percent. In the group of large farmers, it was determined that the most profitable harvesting strategy would be on a weekly basis. In the pessimistic price scenario, the estimated profit for choosing tomato strategy 18 was 8450 million IRI rials per hectare. In the moderate and optimistic scenarios, the estimated profit for choosing tomato strategy 16 was 2560 and 4776 million IRI rials per hectare, respectively. <span style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.0pt; line-height: 107%; font-family: 'Times New Roman',serif; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">Conclusion and Suggestions: <span style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.0pt; line-height: 107%; font-family: 'Times New Roman',serif; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">The study results showed that there were significant differences in profits among the three groups of farmers, depending on the price scenarios; for instance, small farms had much higher profits in the optimistic scenario compared to the pessimistic one, with a difference of over six times. This could be attributed to varying price expectations, which in turn would influence planting and harvesting strategies. Other factors such as yield, harvest time, and price levels also contributed to the differences in profitability. This highlighted the high volatility of profits in the market for this particular product. However, due to the nature of agricultural production, especially for products like tomatoes, it is not always possible to make optimal decisions based on real market prices. As a solution, it is recommended to implement various types of income insurance to manage market risk for this group of farmers. This is crucial, because fluctuations in net income can decrease farmers’ motivation to improve production technologies. In addition, agricultural extension workers may play a crucial role in facilitating communication with farmers, particularly those who own large farms. Through this collaboration, the findings of studies might be effectively disseminated and the strategies for utilizing them could be implemented. This connection between production and research centers has the potential to significantly increase farmers’ income and promote sustainable development. <span dir="RTL" lang="FA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: FA;">یکی از چالش‌های پیش روی کشاورزان، به‏ ویژه تولیدکنندگان محصولات فسادپذیر، تغییرات درآمد در نتیجة نوسان‏‌های بالای قیمت این محصولات است. کشاورزان، بیشتر برای رسیدن به حداکثر سودآوری، تمرکز بر بیشینهسازی تولید دارند، در حالی که با توجه به نوسان‏‌های موجود در بازار، حداکثر تولید لزوماً منتج به حداکثر سودآوری نمی‌شود. بنابراین، هدف مطالعة حاضر بررسی اثر مدیریت هم‏زمان تولید و نوسان‏‌های قیمت در بازار با استفاده از الگوی یکپارچه تولید و توزیع بر سود گوجه ‏فرنگی‏‌کاران در نظر گرفته شد. داده‌های مورد نیاز از مزارع گوجه‌فرنگی منطقه (شهرستان) بیضا در استان فارس در سال 1402 از طریق پرسشنامه جمع‌آوری شد. سپس، با توجه به متوسط دما در منطقه، راهبردهای مختلف کاشت و برداشت گوجه فرنگی استخراج و با به‏ کارگیری مدل برنامه‏ ریزی خطی با سناریوهای مختلف قیمت انتظاری، سودآورترین راهبرد به‏ همراه بازار مناسب شناسایی شد. <span dir="RTL" lang="AR-SA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">نتایج پژوهش نشان داد که <span dir="RTL" lang="AR-SA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">تفاوت سود میان سناریوهای مختلف قیمتی برای هر سه گروه کشاورزان بالاست، به‏ گونه‌‏ا<span dir="RTL" lang="FA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: FA;">ی که سودآوری<span dir="RTL" lang="FA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;"> <span dir="RTL" lang="AR-SA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">در نتیجه زمان‏‌بندی یکپارچه تولید و توزیع به‏ طور متوسط برای کشاورزان کوچک، متوسط و بزرگ‏ مقیاس، به ‏ترتیب، چهل، 25 و 55 درصد نسبت به سود تحقق ‏یافتة کشاورزان نماینده افزایش می‌یابد<span dir="RTL" lang="FA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: FA;">؛ و <span dir="RTL" lang="AR-SA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">حتی در شرایطی که با فرض دسترسی به یک بازار (بازار شیراز)، کشاورزارن فقط به انتخاب بهینه در میان <span dir="RTL" lang="FA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: FA;">راهبرد<span dir="RTL" lang="FA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;"> <span dir="RTL" lang="AR-SA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">های تولید بپردازند، می‌توانند از سود بیشتری نسبت به <span dir="RTL" lang="FA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: FA;">راهبرد<span dir="RTL" lang="FA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;"> <span dir="RTL" lang="AR-SA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">انتخابی خود بهره‌مند شوند.<span dir="RTL" lang="AR-SA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;"> <span dir="RTL" lang="AR-SA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">از این‌‏رو، پیشنهاد می‌شود که با کمک مروجان کشاورزی، ضمن ارتباط با کشاورزان به‏‌ویژه کشاورزان بزرگ ‏مقیاس، نتایج حاصل از پژوهش‌های صورت‏گرفته و چگونگی بهره‌مندی از آن تبیین شود تا از این رهگذر، با پیوند میان مراکز تولید و پژوهش، بتوان به سطح درآمد کشاورزان و توسعه پایدار این بخش کمک کرد. همچنین، با توجه به نتایج پژوهش حاضر مبنی بر نوسان بالای سود در سناریوهای مختلف قیمت انتظاری و در نتیجه، مخاطره (ریسک) بالای درآمدی برای کشاورزان، پیشنهاد می‌شود که با به‏‌کارگیری مدل‌های مختلف هماهنگی عمودی در زنجیره عرضه گوجه‌فرنگی از جمله استفاده از کشاورزی قراردادی، به مدیریت این مخاطره کمک شود.

http://aead.agri-peri.ac.ir/article_132222_3baab1d820015e693027e49f00b91b37.pdf

موسسه پژوهش های برنامه ریزی، اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه روستایی اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه 1022-4211 33 3 2025 11 22 The Impact of Knowledge-Based Economy Components on Performance of Environment: A Comparative Study of Iran and Neighboring Countries بررسی تأثیر مؤلفه‌های اقتصاد دانش‌‏بنیان بر عملکرد محیط زیست: مقایسه ایران با کشورهای همسایه 27 59 132223 10.30490/aead.2025.367328.1643 FA مینا صالح نیا استادیار اقتصاد کشاورزی، مؤسسه پژوهش‌های برنامه‌ریزی، اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه روستایی، تهران، ایران Journal Article 2024 11 17 Introduction: Knowledge-Based Economy (KBE) is often explained as a possible way for society to achieve sustainable economic growth, and solve various environmental challenges caused by the increasing scarcity of resources. Today, in most countries, the process of sustainable development is well aligned with the development process of KBE. To achieve appropriate changes, these two processes need to be coordinated. Based on this, this study aimed mainly at focusing on the factors related to KBE, that improves the environmental situation, increases competitiveness, and achieves sustainability in Iran. Despite all the advantages of KBE and its role in the development of countries, according to the latest ranking of KBE in 2012 by the World Bank, Iran’s economy was not in a good place among other countries. Also, currently one of the most important issues at the global and national level in many countries of the world is environmental issues, and for this reason, several environmental indicators were proposed to monitor the processes of environmental destruction. One of the most important indicators, which is currently widely used as a benchmark for comparing countries and is published biannually regarding environmental protection, is the Environmental Performance Index (EPI). In this research, an attempt was made to investigate the effect of KBE components on Environmental Performance Index (EPI) of Iran and neighboring countries. Materials and Methods: The World Bank identified four pillars in the framework of KBE, including economic and institutional regime, education and skills, information and communication infrastructure, and innovation system. Each of these pillars consists of indicators. The Knowledge Economy Index (KEI), developed by the World Bank for the Knowledge Assessment Method (KAM), examines whether the environment is suitable for the effective use of knowledge for economic development. KEI is a comprehensive index equivalent to the average normalized scores of the performance of a country or region in each of the four pillars, indicating the overall progress of that country or region from the perspective of the knowledge economy. On the other hand, the environmental performance index is also a composite index that summarizes country-level data on 40 specific indicators. In this study, while knowing the components of the Environmental Performance Index (EPI) and the Knowledge-Based Economy (KBE), the performance of EPI was evaluated against each of the dimensions of the knowledge-based economy. For this purpose, the components of the KBE were included in the modeling once in the form of four pillars in a separate form, and again in the form of the KEI composite index. The studied countries included Iran, Türkiye, Iraq, Pakistan, Azerbaijan and Armenia. Results and Discussion: According to the study results, the highest score obtained in the composite index of KBE belongs to Türkiye with a value of 7.27, and after that, Armenia and Iran are in almost the same rank with an average of 5.85 and 5.57, respectively. In terms of the constituent elements of the KBE, Armenia performed better than other countries in providing an economic and institutional regime, and the same was true for Türkiye in education and skills. Azerbaijan and Iran countries were leaders in the field of information and communication infrastructure, and innovation system, respectively. The estimation of the final model of the panel data with the Generalized Least Squares (GLS) method indicated that the share of government education expenditures in the GDP (related to the education and skills component) was the only variable that had a positive effect on the Environmental Performance Index (EPI). In such a way that with a one percent increase in the share of education expenses, EPI would increase by 0.336 percent. The variable of the volume of international trade (one of the indicators of the pillar of the economic and institutional regime) and the variable of the share of research and development expenses in GDP (belonging to the pillar of the innovation system) showed a significant negative effect on the environmental performance of countries. Similarly, the composite index of the KBE also had an inverse relationship with EPI. <span style="font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; font-family: 'Times New Roman',serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: FA;">Conclusion and Suggestions: <span lang="EN" style="font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; font-family: 'Times New Roman',serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: FA;">Based on the results, it is necessary to adopt strict environmental laws for the activities of relevant units, especially foreign companies, in order to prevent pollution and resource depletion. Avoiding the sale of <span style="font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; font-family: 'Times New Roman',serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: FA;">raw materials<span lang="EN" style="font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; font-family: 'Times New Roman',serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: FA;"> and exporting products with higher value-added is recommended in this regard. In the case of Iran, with a high rank in the pillar of the <span style="font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; font-family: 'Times New Roman',serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: FA;">innovation system<span lang="EN" style="font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; font-family: 'Times New Roman',serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: FA;">, the development of the export of technical and engineering services can be considered. Keeping in mind the positive effect of investing in education and human resource development, it is recommended to pay attention to increasing the share of government education in the GDP. It should also be ensured that the resources needed to finance education are distributed fairly in educational levels, programs and regions to improve the enrollment rate and quality of education <span dir="RTL" lang="FA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: FA;">اقتصاد دانش‌‏بنیان (KBA) به‏ طور معمول<span dir="RTL" lang="FA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; font-family: 'Calibri',sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: FA;">، به ‏عنوان یک راهکار بالقوه برای تحقق رشد اقتصادی پایدار در جامعه مطرح می‌شود و می‌تواند در رفع چالش‌های مختلف زیست‌‏محیطی ناشی از کمبود روزافزون منابع، مؤثر باشد. از این‏رو، هدف اصلی پژوهش حاضر بررسی تأثیر مؤلفه‌های اقتصاد دانش‌بنیان بر شاخص عملکرد زیست‏‌محیطی (EPI) در ایران و کشورهای همسایه شامل ترکیه، عراق، پاکستان، جمهوری آذربایجان و ارمنستان بود. بدین منظور، شاخص ترکیبی اقتصاد دانش‌<span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; font-family: 'Times New Roman',serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: FA;">بنیان برای کشورهای مورد مطالعه با استفاده از روش ارزیابی دانش بانک جهانی طی سال‌های 2022-2006 محاسبه و سپس<span dir="RTL" lang="AR-SA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">، تأثیر مؤلفه‌های اقتصاد دانش‌‏بنیان بر عملکرد محیط زیست در چارچوب داده‌های پانل و با به‌‏کارگیری <span dir="RTL" lang="AR-SA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">روش حداقل مربعات تعمیم‌‏یافته (GLS) بررسی شد. نتایج پژوهش نشان داد که در شاخص ترکیبی اقتصاد دانش‌بنیان، ترکیه با میانگین 7/27 بیشترین امتیاز را کسب کرده است؛ پس از آن، ارمنستان و ایران، به‏ ترتیب، با میانگین‌های 5/85 و 5/57 در رتبه‌های بعدی قرار دارند. نتایج برآورد مدل نهایی داده‌های پانل نیز حاکی از آن بود که سهم مخارج آموزش دولتی از تولید ناخالص داخلی (مربوط به رکن آموزش و توسعه منابع انسانی) تنها متغیر دارای اثر مثبت بر شاخص عملکرد زیست‏‌محیطی است، به ‏گونه‌‏ای که با افزایش یک درصدی این سهم، EPI به میزان 0/336 درصد افزایش می‌یابد؛ افزون بر این، متغیر حجم تجارت بین‌الملل (از شاخص‌های رکن نظام انگیزشی و نهادی اقتصادی) و نیز متغیر سهم مخارج تحقیق و توسعه از تولید ناخالص داخلی (متعلق به رکن نوآوری و پذیرش ابداعات) اثر منفی و معنی‌دار بر عملکرد زیست‌‏محیطی کشورها دارند؛ به ‏طور مشابه، شاخص ترکیبی اقتصاد دانش‌‏بنیان نیز رابطه معکوس با شاخص EPI دارد. با توجه به یافته‌های پژوهش حاضر، پیشنهاد می‌شود که در راستای بهبود عملکرد زیست‌محیطی، برای فعالیت‌های واحدهای اقتصادی به‌‏ویژه شرکت‌های خارجی، قوانین زیست‌محیطی دقیق اعمال شود؛ همچنین، توسعه صادرات خدمات فنی و مهندسی و نیز افزایش سهم مخارج آموزش دولتی از تولید ناخالص داخلی به ‏همراه توزیع عادلانه آن از دیگر پیشنهادهای پژوهش حاضر به ‏شمار می‌روند.

http://aead.agri-peri.ac.ir/article_132223_b64e355aa598d629bfd983d19aa30d4c.pdf

موسسه پژوهش های برنامه ریزی، اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه روستایی اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه 1022-4211 33 3 2025 11 22 Identification and Prioritization of Key Economic, Social, and Environmental Indicators in Sustainable Food Supply Chain Using Fuzzy DEMATEL Technique شناسایی و اولویت‌بندی شاخص‌های کلیدی اقتصادی، اجتماعی و زیست‌محیطی در زنجیرة تأمین پایدار مواد غذایی با استفاده از شیوه دیمتل فازی 61 104 132295 10.30490/aead.2025.367399.1663 FA جمشید ابراهیم پور سامانی استادیار گروه مدیریت صنعتی ،دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران 0000-0002-7784-686X سید محمد رضا داودی دانشیار مدیریت ، واحد دهاقان ، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی ، دهاقان، ایران* 0000-0003-2347-7154 Journal Article 2025 02 26 <span style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.0pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman',serif; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: 'B Mitra'; color: black; mso-color-alt: windowtext; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">Introduction:<span style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.0pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman',serif; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: 'B Mitra'; color: black; mso-color-alt: windowtext; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;"> The agricultural food supply chain plays a pivotal role in ensuring food security, safeguarding public health, and advancing sustainable development goals. In the face of rapid population growth, climate change, economic fluctuations, and geopolitical uncertainties, the need for resilient and sustainable supply chains has become more pressing than ever. A robust agricultural food supply chain not only guarantees the steady availability of nutritious food but also supports rural livelihoods, stimulates economic growth, and preserves environmental resources for future generations. However, the transition toward sustainability is complex and challenging. In many agricultural regions, outdated infrastructure, limited access to advanced technologies, fragmented market structures, and insufficient farmer training hinder progress. Additionally, political instability, environmental degradation, and the impact of international sanctions exacerbate these constraints. Overcoming such challenges requires a holistic approach that integrates economic, social, and environmental priorities into coherent strategies and feasible policies. Although the global body of literature on sustainable supply chains has grown significantly, many studies tend to focus on individual dimensions such as economic performance, social welfare, or environmental protection, without adequately capturing their interdependencies. This lack of integration limits the ability of policymakers and practitioners to address systemic issues effectively. There is a pressing need for a comprehensive evaluation framework that identifies, prioritizes, and analyzes sustainability indicators in an integrated manner. Such a framework would allow for the identification of both the most critical factors and the causal (cause-and-effect) relationships that underpin the performance of the supply chain. In response to this gap, this study aimed at identifying, prioritizing, and analyzing the most influential indicators of a sustainable agricultural food supply chain in 2024. A mixed-method approach was employed, integrating qualitative insights with quantitative modeling to deliver a robust analytical framework.<span style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.0pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman',serif; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: 'B Mitra'; color: windowtext; mso-color-alt: windowtext; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;"> <span style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.0pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman',serif; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: 'B Mitra'; color: windowtext; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">Materials and Methods:<span style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.0pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman',serif; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: 'B Mitra'; color: windowtext; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;"> The research was conducted in two main phases (including qualitative and quantitative) following a sequential design to ensure analytical depth. In the qualitative phase, a systematic review of 44 scholarly articles published between 2015 and 2024 was conducted to develop a preliminary conceptual model. The literature encompassed diverse themes, including resource efficiency, socio-economic equity, environmental stewardship, and technology adoption. Building on this model, semi-structured interviews were conducted with 15 purposively selected experts, each with at least 10 years of experience and specialized knowledge in sustainable<span dir="RTL" style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'B Mitra'; color: windowtext; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;"> <span style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.0pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman',serif; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: 'B Mitra'; color: windowtext; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">agricultural<span dir="RTL" style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'B Mitra'; color: windowtext; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;"> <span style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.0pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman',serif; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: 'B Mitra'; color: windowtext; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">food supply chains. The interviews continued until theoretical saturation was achieved, ensuring a comprehensive capture of perspectives. The data from interviews were analyzed using thematic analysis guided by Clarke’s six-stage coding process, incorporating both open and axial coding. MAXQDA 2022 software was used to facilitate the analysis and organization of data. The paradigmatic model derived from the coding process was refined through iterative feedback sessions with participating experts. To ensure validity and reliability, validation measures such as member checking, peer debriefing, and consensus assessment were applied. In the quantitative phase, the indicators validated in the qualitative phase were evaluated using the fuzzy Delphi method to reach consensus on their relative importance. The same group of experts participated in this stage, leading to the identification of 12 high-priority indicators. These indicators were subsequently analyzed using the fuzzy DEMATEL method to determine the causal relationships and to classify indicators based on their level of influence and dependence. This analysis made<span dir="RTL" style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'B Mitra'; color: windowtext; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;"> <span style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.0pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman',serif; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: 'B Mitra'; color: windowtext; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">it possible to distinguish between driving factors and dependent factors, providing strategic insight into where interventions would be most effective. <span style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.0pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman',serif; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: 'B Mitra'; color: windowtext; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">Results and Discussion:<span style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.0pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman',serif; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: 'B Mitra'; color: windowtext; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;"> The study results revealed that among the three dimensions of sustainability (i.e. economic, social, and environmental), the economic dimension held the greatest importance in influencing the overall sustainability of the agricultural food supply chain. Within this dimension, support performance, adoption of region-specific technologies, and enhancement of farmers’ knowledge and skills were identified as the most effective criteria. In the social dimension, political, social, and cultural factors emerged as critical, particularly in shaping stakeholder engagement and policy effectiveness. The persistent effects of economic sanctions were also highlighted as significant barriers that would limit access to technology, financial resources, and international market opportunities. In the environmental dimension, challenges such as water scarcity, soil degradation, and biodiversity loss were recognized as major threats to long-term sustainability. The fuzzy DEMATEL analysis indicated that environmental management challenges, political-social-cultural factors, and sanctions were among the primary driving forces in the system, influencing multiple other indicators. These findings highlighted the interconnected nature of sustainability challenges and emphasized the need for integrated strategies. For example, adopting advanced yet locally appropriate technologies could improve productivity while reducing environmental impact, and implementing inclusive social policies could enhance farmer participation and resilience. Without addressing these interdependencies, isolated measures are unlikely to yield sustainable outcomes. <span style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.0pt; line-height: 200%; font-family: 'Times New Roman',serif; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">Conclusion and Suggestions:<span style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.0pt; line-height: 200%; font-family: 'Times New Roman',serif; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;"> This study provided a comprehensive framework for understanding and enhancing the sustainability of agricultural food supply chains. The study findings highlighted the need for strategies that would address economic, social, and environmental factors in a balanced and interconnected manner. Based on the results, several strategic recommendations were proposed: developing targeted support policies, including subsidies, tax incentives, and access to affordable credit, to strengthen farmers’ financial stability and encourage the adoption of sustainable practices; promoting the adoption of locally appropriate technologies that improve productivity while conserving resources and reducing environmental impacts; strengthening capacity-building initiatives to equip farmers with the skills and knowledge required to adapt to changing market and environmental conditions; mitigating the impact of political and economic sanctions by fostering domestic innovation, enhancing regional trade partnerships, and diversifying export markets; and implementing comprehensive environmental management policies focusing on water conservation, soil fertility restoration, biodiversity preservation, and climate adaptation. By integrating these measures, stakeholders can build a more resilient, adaptable, and future-ready agricultural food supply chain. The methodological approach of combining qualitative thematic analysis with fuzzy multi-criteria decision-making techniques offers a replicable model for similar sustainability assessments in other sectors. Achieving sustainability in the agricultural food supply chain is not a one-off goal but a continuous process that demands collaboration among policymakers, producers, researchers, and consumers. Prioritizing key indicators, understanding their interactions, and implementing evidence-based strategies will enable significant progress toward food security, public health improvement, and sustainable development in a complex and uncertain global context <span dir="RTL" lang="FA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 200%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: FA;">زنجیره تأمین مواد غذایی و کشاورزی نقشی اساسی در تأمین امنیت غذایی، سلامت عمومی و توسعه پایدار دارد. پژوهش حاضر با هدف شناسایی و اولویت‌بندی شاخص‌ها و معیارهای کلیدی زنجیره تأمین پایدار صنایع غذایی و کشاورزی در سال ۱۴۰۴ انجام شد. روش تحقیق از نوع آمیخته (کیفی‌- کمی) بود و در چند مرحله اجرا شد. نخست، با مرور نظام‌مند منابع علمی، ۴۴ مقاله مرتبط منتشرشده بین سال‌های ۲۰۱۵ تا ۲۰۲5 بررسی و شاخص‌ها شناسایی و دسته‌بندی شدند. سپس، با بهره‌گیری از مصاحبه‌های نیمه‌‏ساختاریافته با خبرگان، بازنگری معیارهای شناسایی‌شده صورت گرفت و شاخص‌هایی جدید نیز شناسایی و ارزیابی شد. جامعه آماری پژوهش شامل پانزده متخصص با حداقل ده سال سابقه فعالیت در حوزه زنجیره تأمین پایدار بود، که به‌صورت هدفمند انتخاب شدند؛ فرآیند نمونه‌گیری تا رسیدن به اشباع نظری ادامه یافت. در بخش کیفی، داده‌ها با روش تحلیل مضمون و کدگذاری شش‌درجه‌ای کلارک (باز و محوری) تحلیل شدند. در ادامه، الگوی پارادایمی پژوهش با استفاده از نرم‌افزار <span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 200%; font-family: 'Times New Roman',serif; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">MAXQDA 2022 <span dir="RTL" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 200%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;"> <span dir="RTL" lang="FA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 200%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: FA;">ترسیم شد. برای ارزیابی روایی و پایایی بخش کیفی، از بررسی مشارکت و میزان توافق خبرگان استفاده شد. <span dir="RTL" lang="AR-SA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 200%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">در بخش کمی نیز ابتدا از پرسشنامه‌های مقایسات زوجی برای اولویت‌بندی شاخص‌ها و معیارها استفاده شد. <span dir="RTL" lang="FA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 200%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: FA;">پانزده<span dir="RTL" lang="AR-SA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 200%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;"> خبره‌ای که در مرحله کیفی مشارکت داشتند، نظرات خود را ارائه دادند. در نهایت، <span dir="RTL" lang="FA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 200%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: FA;">دوازده<span dir="RTL" lang="AR-SA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 200%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;"> معیار کلیدی شناسایی شدند که مبنای تحلیل بخش کمی قرار گرفت. تحلیل دقیق‌تر با استفاده از روش دلفی فازی انجام شد. سپس، با بهره‌گیری از روش دیمتل فازی، تأثیرگذاری و تأثیرپذیری شاخص‌ها و معیارهای کلیدی زنجیره تأمین پایدار صنایع غذایی و کشاورزی ارزیابی و روابط میان عوامل اصلی تعیین شد. همچنین، اعتبار و پایایی تحقیق از تحلیل مشارکت و توافق کارشناسان با روش‌های دلفی فازی و دیمتل فازی تضمین شد. نتایج پژوهش نشان داد که در میان ابعاد پایداری، بعد اقتصادی اهمیت بیشتری دارد؛ در این بعد، معیارهایی همچون عملکرد پشتیبانی، استفاده از فناوری‌های متناسب با شرایط منطقه‌ای و ارتقای سطح دانش کشاورزان به‌عنوان عوامل کلیدی شناخته شدند؛ همچنین، در بعد اجتماعی، عوامل سیاسی، اجتماعی و فرهنگی و رفع تحریم‌ها و در بعد زیست‌محیطی، چالش‌های مدیریت زیست‌محیطی از اهمیت بالا برخوردارند. همچنین، نتایج پژوهش نشان داد که چالش‌های مدیریت زیست‌محیطی، عوامل سیاسی، اجتماعی و فرهنگی و مسئله رفع تحریم‌ها از مهم‌ترین عوامل مؤثر بر پایداری زنجیره تأمین مواد غذایی کشاورزی به ‏شمار می‌روند؛ علاوه بر این، معیارهایی نظیر عملکرد پشتیبانی، بهره‌گیری از فناوری‌های متناسب با شرایط منطقه‌ای و ارتقای سطح دانش کشاورزان بیشترین تأثیر را در بهبود پایداری این زنجیره‌ دارند. بر این اساس، تدوین راهبردهای جامع، اجرای سیاست‌های حمایتی هدفمند و توسعه زیرساخت‌های فناورانه از اقدامات اساسی در راستای تقویت پایداری این صنعت محسوب می‌شوند. از یافته‌های پژوهش حاضر می‌توان به‌عنوان مبنایی برای تصمیم‌گیری‌های راهبردی و تدوین برنامه‌های عملیاتی اثربخش در راستای دستیابی به توسعه پایدار زنجیره تأمین مواد غذایی کشاورزی سود جست.

http://aead.agri-peri.ac.ir/article_132295_d05f73f26884c6dd71034117ee6f5c03.pdf

موسسه پژوهش های برنامه ریزی، اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه روستایی اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه 1022-4211 33 3 2025 11 22 Determining Optimal Cropping Pattern to Enhance Poverty Alleviation Index, Strengthen Food Security, and Conserve Water Resources تعیین الگوی بهینه زراعی با هدف بهبود شاخص فقر، امنیت غذایی و حفظ منابع آب 105 137 132393 10.30490/aead.2025.367421.1668 FA مدینه سلامات دانش‌آموخته کارشناسی ارشد توسعه روستایی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی خوزستان، ملاثانی، ایران. مصطفی مردانی نجف آبادی دانشیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده مهندسی زراعی و عمران روستایی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی خوزستان، ملاثانی، ایران. معصومه فروزانی دانشیار گروه ترویج و آموزش کشاورزی، دانشکده مهندسی زراعی و عمران روستایی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی خوزستان، ملاثانی، ایران. حسن آزرم استادیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده مهندسی زراعی و عمران روستایی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی خوزستان، ملاثانی، ایران. Journal Article 2025 04 14 Introduction: Poverty is recognized as one of the main human problems, especially in developing countries. Eradicating poverty in all its forms and everywhere by 2030 is the first goal among the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) set by the United Nations. Therefore, one of the goals of agriculture is to reduce poverty, especially in developing countries. In addition to poverty, food insecurity has also become a global problem in rural areas over recent decades. Given the importance of the agricultural sector in the economy of developing countries, it is crucial to maintain agriculture as a source of income and to produce and supply the required food. Emphasis should be placed on the resources available to farmers and the factors affecting decision-making in resource allocation. Increasing agricultural production necessitates enhancing the productivity of scarce resources. The strong relationship between poverty and income links the issues of poverty and the optimal use of agricultural production factors. Official statistics show that poverty in Iran has increased in recent years. Therefore, this study aimed mainly at providing a Multi-objective Mathematical Programming (MMP) model to improve the poverty index in line with sustainable development and food security of the lands downstream of the irrigation and drainage networks of the Karun-e-Bozorg (Great Karun). Materials and Methods: This study aimed to develop a mathematical programming model to improve the FGT poverty index and address objectives related to food security and water resource sustainability. The multi-objective mathematical programming method was used. Before explaining the proposed model, the FGT poverty index was reviewed and introduced. This index measures the distributional and income effects on poverty and indicates that poverty rates from different population subgroups can be aggregated to achieve a single poverty rate for the entire population. So, different objectives could be considered depending on the agricultural and livelihood situation in the lands under irrigation networks, including: 1) to minimize the FGT poverty index, 2) to maximize energy production from food consumption (food security), and 3) to minimize irrigation water consumption (environmental). Multi-objective programming methods require harmonizing the measurement criteria in different objectives. A multi-objective fuzzy nonlinear programming model derived from Jones & Barnes (2000) was used to harmonize the objectives. The required data was collected through interviews with experts from the Agriculture-Jahad Center of Ahwaz County of Iran in 2024 and from the Statistical Center of Iran (SCI). The areas studied included North East Ahvaz, Gotvand, Miyan-Ab, East Shoaybiyeh, which had different crops and horticultural crops depending on the climate and soil. The solution of the proposed models was carried out using GAMS software and the CONOPT algorithm, which uses the generalized simplex method to solve linear and nonlinear problems. Results and Discussion: The study results showed that the poverty index minimization goal had the greatest impact on changing the optimal crop area of the study areas compared to current conditions. The irrigation water minimization scenario had the least contribution in this regard. The amount of water consumed in the multi-objective model was greater in winter and less in summer compared to the current conditions. Considering the triple objectives, the profits of all studied regions would increase compared to the current conditions. The highest profit growth would be related to the Gotvand region, and the lowest to the East Shoaybiyeh region. Under the goal of minimizing irrigation water, the poverty index for the four regions would not change. Considering other goals, the poverty index would decrease compared to the current conditions. By applying optimal conditions in the form of a multi-objective model, the poverty index in the Miyan-Ab region would decrease by 51 percent. Under the objective of minimizing irrigation water consumption, the amount of calorie intake resulting from crop production would not change compared to the current conditions. However, under multi-objective conditions, considering the objective of maximizing calorie production, the volume of calories produced would exceed 57 million calories. The data showed that the total calorie intake would increase by 39 percent under the optimal conditions compared to the current conditions. <span style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.0pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman',serif; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: 'B Mitra'; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">Conclusion and Suggestions: <span style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.0pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman',serif; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: 'B Mitra'; color: black; mso-themecolor: text1; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">The study findings indicated that the allocation of agricultural inputs in the studied areas was not optimal and the current cultivated area was very different from the optimal values. Under the optimal conditions, the cultivated area of beans, cucumbers, alfalfa, and rice in all four studied regions will decrease compared to the current conditions. However, the cultivated area of corn and wheat for all regions will increase under the optimal conditions. This study confirms that the optimal use of agricultural production resources will lead to increased profits, improved poverty, reduced water consumption, and increased calorie intake in the four regions. The proposed mathematical programming model will contribute to achieving sustainable development and improving food security. Encouraging farmers to adopt an optimal cropping pattern requires a combination of support policies and economic incentives. It is recommended to provide financial and credit facilities to farmers to purchase agricultural inputs<span style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.0pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman',serif; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;"> and equipment needed to implement the optimal cropping pattern, hold training and extension courses for farmers on the benefits of the cropping pattern and optimal cultivation methods, and guarantee the purchase of farmers’ products at reasonable prices to create strong incentives for adopting the cropping pattern. <span dir="RTL" lang="FA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 14.0pt; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: FA;">فقر و امنیت غذایی، به‌‏عنوان دو مؤلفه مرتبط با یکدیگر، محورهای اصلی توسعه و ثبات اقتصادی را تشکیل می‌دهند. هم‏زمانی تشدید پدیده فقر با عدم بهره‌برداری بهینه از عوامل تولید در بخش کشاورزی و در نتیجه، گسترش ناامنی غذایی از ویژگی‌های خاص مناطق روستایی در کشورهای در حال توسعه است. در این راستا، برای تحقق تخصیص بهینه منابع در این مناطق، لازم است هم‏زمان به مسئله فقر و امنیت غذایی توجه شود. بر این اساس، در مطالعه حاضر، با استفاده از روش برنامه‌ریزی غیرخطی فازی چندهدفه، به تعیین الگوی بهینه زراعی با لحاظ اهداف حداقل‌سازی شاخص فقر <span style="font-size: 14.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman',serif; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">FGT<span dir="RTL" lang="FA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 14.0pt; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: FA;">، حداقل‌سازی مصرف آب آبیاری و حداکثرسازی میزان کالری تولیدشده در مناطق منتخب زیر پوشش شبکه‌های آبیاری و زهکشی کارون بزرگ پرداخته شد. مناطق مورد مطالعه شامل شمال شرق اهواز، گتوند، میان‌آب و شعیبیه شرقی بود. نتایج پژوهش نشان داد که در شرایط بهینه، میانگین سطح زیر کشت محصولات نسبت به شرایط جاری به میزان 35 درصد افزایش می‌یابد؛<span dir="RTL" lang="FA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 14.0pt; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;"> <span dir="RTL" lang="FA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 14.0pt; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: FA;">همچنین، استفاده بهینه از منابع تولید کشاورزی در قالب اهداف یادشده، افزایش سود، بهبود فقر، کاهش میزان آب مصرفی و افزایش میزان کالری تولیدشده از مصرف مواد غذایی در سطح مناطق چهارگانه را به‏دنبال دارد.<span dir="RTL" lang="FA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 14.0pt; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;"> <span dir="RTL" lang="AR-SA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 14.0pt; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">علاوه بر این، بر اساس نتایج پژوهش، هدف کمینه‌سازی شاخص فقر بیشترین تأثیر را بر تغییر سطح زیر کشت بهینه مناطق مورد مطالعه در مقایسه با شرایط فعلی و نیز سناریوی کمینه‌سازی آب آبیاری کمترین سهم را در این زمینه داشته و میزان آب مصرفی در مدل چندهدفه در زمستان بیشتر و در تابستان کمتر از شرایط فعلی بوده است. <span dir="RTL" lang="FA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 14.0pt; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: FA;">در نهایت، می‌توان گفت که الگوی پیشنهادی برنامه‌ریزی ریاضی در مناطق مورد مطالعه، علاوه بر ارتقای توسعه پایدار، به‏‌گونه‏‌ای مؤثر، به بهبود امنیت غذایی مساعدت خواهد کرد..

http://aead.agri-peri.ac.ir/article_132393_51168bac893fe1e064ac05d55126a11d.pdf

موسسه پژوهش های برنامه ریزی، اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه روستایی اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه 1022-4211 33 3 2025 11 22 Designing a Smart Contract for Agricultural Insurance on Blockchain طراحی قرارداد هوشمند بیمه محصولات کشاورزی در بلاک‏چین 139 170 132400 10.30490/aead.2025.367446.1673 FA نعمت الله نعمتی دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، ساری، ایران فواد عشقی استادیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، ساری، ایران سید مجتبی مجاوریان استاد گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، ساری، ایران 0000-0003-4821-1539 طاهره رنجبر ملکشاه دانش‌آموخته اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، ساری، ایران Journal Article 2025 06 07 <span style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.0pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman','serif'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Introduction: <span style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.0pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman','serif'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Agriculture is widely recognized as a cornerstone of income and employment in many developing economies; however, farm households and agri-food supply chains are repeatedly exposed to different shocks such as droughts, floods, earthquakes, and other climate-related extremes that disrupt production calendars and threaten livelihoods. Conventional agricultural insurance has often been observed to underperform in such contexts because of high administrative costs, fragmented data flows, lengthy claims assessment processes, payment delays, and trust deficits among stakeholders. In response to these limitations, a technology pathway based on distributed ledgers and self-executing agreements has been investigated. By encoding policy terms and operational rules in smart contracts, adjudication can be automated, manual reconciliations can be reduced, and a tamper-evident audit trail can be created to enhance transparency and accountability. Accordingly, a prototype decentralized insurance mechanism for agricultural products was designed and implemented. The objective was defined as improving efficiency, lowering operational frictions and costs, and increasing trust through immutability and end-to-end visibility. To ensure alignment with beneficiary needs, user priorities were elicited and translated into technical specifications before implementation. The resulting system was structured around a modular set of smart contracts, a distributed execution environment, and a user interface designed for non-technical participants. The approach was intended to demonstrate that blockchain-based insurance can be operationalized in a practical, auditable, and scalable manner suited to the realities of agricultural risk. <span style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.0pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman','serif'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Materials and Methods: <span style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.0pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman','serif'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">The research was conducted in two coordinated tracks. In the requirements track, the preferences of intended users were elicited and quantified. In 2024, opinions from 30 farmers were collected regarding the desirable features of a blockchain-enabled insurance platform. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was employed to structure the decision problem and derive weights. Pairwise comparisons were administered over a defined hierarchy of criteria and sub-criteria, an importance scale was applied, and consistency ratios were checked to validate response coherence. In the system design and prototyping track, the AHP-derived requirements were translated into an executable architecture. A suite of four smart contracts was specified and developed on an Ethereum-compatible blockchain: (i) a registration contract to onboard and manage roles (insurers, policyholders, and damage assessors) and to bind unique identifiers to addresses; (ii) an insurance policy contract to issue policies, store key parameters (coverage window, premium, payout logic, and insured product type), and emit events for state changes; (iii) a damage assessor contract to receive authenticated assessments and associate them with claims; and (iv) a payment contract to enforce rule-based disbursement once contractual conditions were met. The network substrate was provided by distributed servers organized in multi-node clusters so that validation, consensus, and storage were shared across nodes for resilience and auditability. A hybrid data strategy was adopted. Policy metadata, claim states, and event logs were anchored on-chain for immutability and traceability, while large or sensitive artifacts were stored off-chain with cryptographic hashes maintained on-chain to guarantee integrity. A web-based user interface was developed to expose core user journeys—registration and verification, policy discovery and purchase, claim initiation, assessment submission (for authorized assessors), and payout tracking—so that non-technical users could interact with the platform. <span style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.0pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman','serif'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Results and Discussion: <span style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.0pt; font-family: 'Times New Roman','serif'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">According to the AHP, 5 criteria were determined: "process improvement and promotion of agricultural insurance", "immutability of agricultural insurance data", "transparency of agricultural insurance", "emergency potential in agricultural insurance", and "traceability of agricultural insurance activities", and 23 sub-criteria. The results showed that the sub-criteria of "visibility of the type of insured products and specificity of the type of insurance", "visibility of transactions (activities) carried out between insurers, policyholders, experts and other stakeholders (based on the assigned code)" and "visibility of insurers, policyholders, experts and other stakeholders (based on the assigned code)" had the highest weight and importance with weights of 0.338, 0.334 and 0.327, respectively. Also, the proposed model in this study includes four contracts: registration smart contract, insurance policy smart contract, damage assessor smart contract, and payment smart contract. The blockchain network that underpins the proposed smart contract platform also includes an infrastructure built on distributed servers and multi-node clusters. In addition, a user interface (site) was created that allows users to engage with the blockchain network and smart contracts. <span style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.0pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: 'Times New Roman','serif'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">Conclusion and Suggestions: <span style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.0pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: 'Times New Roman','serif'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">The existing system described in the study is a prototype for a decentralized insurance system. This solution eliminates third-party intervention through the use of blockchain technology. Smart contracts enable the automation of tasks, hence speeding up the entire insurance process. Trust is fostered in an environment devoid of trust. Furthermore, the versatile system architecture allows for seamless customization to accommodate various product index policies. Since the capabilities of smart contracts in the context of blockchain technology have been welcomed by the interviewed farmers, it is suggested that the necessary surveys be conducted to promote and develop smart contracts for agricultural product insurance, as well as design smart contracts with the ability to include the features of various products in different regions <span dir="RTL" lang="FA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-language: FA;">در بسیاری از کشورهای در حال توسعه، کشاورزی به‌عنوان «سنگ‌بنای درآمدزایی» شماری چشمگیر از نیروی کار را پشتیبانی می‌کند. با این همه، آسیب‌پذیری ذاتی بخش کشاورزی در برابر بلایای طبیعی تهدیدی اساسی برای کشاورزان به ‏شمار می‏‌رود. از آنجا که بیمه سنتی با چالش‌هایی مانند مقرون‏ به‏ صرفه نبودن، تأخیر در پرداخت و نبود اعتماد بین ذی‌نفعان مواجه است، می‌توان با طراحی یک سامانة غیرمتمرکز همتا به همتا برای بیمه محصولات کشاورزی، به چاره‏ جویی برای این چالش‌ها پرداخت. از این‏‌رو، هدف مطالعه حاضر <span dir="RTL" lang="AR-SA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">طراحی و ساخت قرارداد هوشمند مبتنی بر فناوری بلاک‏چین برای بیمه محصولات کشاورزی بود؛ و <span dir="RTL" lang="FA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-language: FA;">به‌منظور طراحی قرارداد هوشمند متناسب با نیاز بهره‌برداران بیمه محصولات کشاورزی، دیدگاه بهره‌برداران بیمه در ارتباط با شاخص‌های مهم قرارداد هوشمند مبتنی بر بلاک‏چین برای این‏گونه بیمه‏ها ارزیابی شد. بدن منظور، با سی کشاورز پیشرو از سراسر کشور در سال 1403 مصاحبه انجام گرفت و تحلیل نتایج آن با به‌کارگیری روش فرآیند تحلیل سلسله‏ مراتبی (<span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: 'Times New Roman','serif'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-language: FA;">AHP<span dir="RTL" lang="FA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-language: FA;">) صورت پذیرفت. بر این اساس، پنج معیار <span dir="RTL" lang="AR-SA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">«بهبود فرآیند و ارتقای بیمه محصولات کشاورزی»، «تغییرناپذیری داده‌های بیمه محصولات کشاورزی»، «قابلیت شفاف‌سازی بیمه محصولات کشاورزی»، «پتانسیل پدیداری در بیمه محصولات کشاورزی» و «قابلیت ردیابی فعالیت<span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: 'Times New Roman','serif'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">‌<span dir="RTL" lang="AR-SA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">های بیمه محصولات کشاورزی» <span dir="RTL" lang="FA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-language: FA;">و 23 زیرمعیار تعیین شد. <span dir="RTL" lang="AR-SA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">مطابق نتایج به ‏دست ‏آمده، زیرمعیارهای «نمایان بودن نوع محصولات بیمه ‏شده و مشخص بودن نوع بیمه»، «نمایان بودن تراکنش‌ها یا فعالیت‌های انجام‏ شده میان بیمه‌گران، بیمه‌گذار، کارشناسان و سایر ذی‏نفعان (بر اساس کد تخصیصی)» و «نمایان بودن بیمه‌گران، بیمه‌گذار، کارشناسان و سایر ذی‌نفعان (بر اساس کد تخصیصی)»، به‌ترتیب، با وزن‌های 0/338، 0/334 و 0/32، بالاترین وزن و اهمیت را داشتند. پس از تعیین شاخص‌های مهم، الگوی مفهومی قرارداد هوشمند بر بستر بلاک‏چین طراحی شد. <span dir="RTL" lang="FA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-language: FA;">مدل پیشنهادی پژوهش حاضر از چهار قرارداد مشتمل بر قراداد<span dir="RTL" lang="FA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;"> <span dir="RTL" lang="AR-SA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">هوشمند ثبت، قرارداد هوشمند بیمه‌نامه، قرارداد هوشمند ارزیاب خسارات و قرارداد هوشمند پرداخت<span dir="RTL" lang="AR-SA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-language: FA;"> <span dir="RTL" lang="FA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-language: FA;">تشکیل شده است. همچنین، یک واسط کاربری (وبگاه) طراحی شد که از طریق آن، کاربران با شبکه بلاک‏چین و قرارداد هوشمند تعامل داشته باشند. از آنجا که قابلیت‌های قراردادهای هوشمند در بستر فناوری بلاک‏چین مورد استقبال کشاورزان مصاحبه‏ شونده قرار گرفته است، انجام پیمایش‌های لازم برای ترویج و توسعة قرارداد هوشمند برای بیمه محصولات کشاورزی پیشنهاد می‌شود..

http://aead.agri-peri.ac.ir/article_132400_a866220dc2fe5bea8c6c421cd42a2a1d.pdf

موسسه پژوهش های برنامه ریزی، اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه روستایی اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه 1022-4211 33 3 2025 11 22 Spatial Analysis of the Impact of Exchange Rate Deviations on Sugar Trade in Iran تحلیل فضایی اثر انحراف نرخ ارز بر تجارت محصول شکر در ایران 171 207 132391 10.30490/aead.2025.367368.1652 FA مجید شهریاری دانشجوی دکتری، گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی گرایش بازاریابی، دانشگاه زابل، زابل، ایران ماشاا.. سالارپور استادیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه زابل، زابل، ایران محمود احمدپور دانشیار، گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی گرایش مدیریت تولید ، دانشگاه زابل، زابل، ایران وحید دهباشی استادیار، گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی گرایش اقتصاد سنجی، دانشگاه زابل، زابل، ایران علیرضا کیخا استادیار، گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی گرایش اقتصاد نظری ، دانشگاه زابل، زابل، ایران Journal Article 2025 01 16 Introduction: A decline in the value of the national currency can enhance the competitiveness of agricultural product exports in global markets. This situation may lead to an increase in demand for agricultural products, resulting in boosting agricultural value added. Furthermore, if the domestic currency depreciates, the costs associated with imported food items may rise. This increase in costs can reduce households’ purchasing power and impact their consumption habits. Overall, fluctuations in the value of the national currency not only affect exports and imports but can also lead to fundamental changes in consumer behavior and the economic structure of the country. If the real exchange rate is appropriately adjusted and aligned with a balanced trajectory, it can yield positive effects on the economy. Conversely, deviations and severe fluctuations in the exchange rate may have detrimental impacts on economic performance. Economists generally agree that the stabilization of the real exchange rate at an inappropriate level and its deviation from a balanced trajectory can significantly reduce national welfare by adversely affecting macroeconomic performance. Sugar occupies a vital position as a source of energy within the basket of essential and strategic goods in the country. Studies indicate that the direct and indirect consumption of sugar meets approximately 8-10 percent of the energy needs of the Iranian population. Materials and Methods: In the present study, a method based on the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) theory was employed to estimate exchange rate deviation. This method yielded the deviation index as follows: After estimating the exchange rate deviation using spatial panel models, a spatial analysis of the impact of exchange rate deviation on the trade of sugar in Iran’s agricultural sector was conducted. Therefore, since sugar is considered as an imported product, the analysis initially focused on the import model. The import model of this research was introduced based on studies conducted both domestically and internationally, along with existing theoretical discussions, utilizing the study by Fidan (2006) as following equation: <span style="font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; font-family: 'Calibri','sans-serif'; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;"> <span style="font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; font-family: 'Calibri','sans-serif'; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;"> <span style="font-size: 11.0pt; line-height: 107%; font-family: 'Calibri','sans-serif'; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;"> In which Mit is import quantity index of agricultural products, PMIT is relative price index, ERERit is real exchange rate deviation, OILit is oil revenues, Git is Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and OPENit is trade liberalization. In this research, to examine the effects of exchange rate deviation and other influential macroeconomic variables on trading partner countries, an effort was made to utilize modern panel data models (considering their advantages over other econometric and time series models) instead of classical models. So, models such as spatial panel models, Panel ARDL, Panel VAR, and Panel VECM were employed. Results and Discussion: As shown by the study results, the null hypothesis of the cross-sectional correlation test indicated the presence of a unit root, which was not accepted. Therefore, there was no need for stationarity and spatial correlation tests; in addition, at all significance levels, the variables indicated that the null hypothesis was not accepted, and the alternative hypothesis, which stated that there was no unit root, was confirmed. Therefore, this test demonstrated the presence of stationarity with spatial correlation. Also, considering the significance level in the estimated model with fixed effects in this study, at all significance levels, the variables of relative import price index, real exchange rate deviation, oil revenues, and trade liberalization significantly affected the amount of sugar imports. However, the significance of the variables based on the significance level in the spatial model was debatable, but the direct and indirect effects could still provide insights beyond the significance level. The presence of positive and negative signs next to the numbers indicated the direction of fluctuations. Considering the direct and indirect effects of exchange rate deviation, the exchange rate deviation and its spillover suggested that on average, if this variable fluctuated by one percent, the change within the country would be approximately 0.10 percent in a direct and negative direction, while in the neighboring country, it would change in the opposite direction by approximately 0.025 percent. As a result, an instability of 0.12 percent would negatively impact sugar imports. <span style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.0pt; line-height: 107%; font-family: 'Times New Roman','serif'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">Conclusion and Suggestions: <span style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.0pt; line-height: 107%; font-family: 'Times New Roman','serif'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">This study contributes to the existing literature by providing a comprehensive analysis of exchange rate fluctuations in trade and food security in Iran. Furthermore, these findings emphasize the necessity of a balanced approach to exchange rate policies that considers the specific economic conditions and challenges of the country. Ensuring consistency with other economic policies in Iran’s economy is also crucial, as experience and reality show that the exchange rate is not the only solution. Future research could explore the potential impacts of alternative exchange rate policies and identify specific measures to enhance agricultural trade flow, improve food security, and foster economic growth in Iran. On the other hand, countries with similar economies, considering the implementation of exchange rate liberalization policies, should establish comprehensive support programs and social protection measures before initiating these policies. Such actions are essential to protect low-income households from the potential negative consequences of these policies <span dir="RTL" lang="FA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: FA;">تجارت خارجی همواره به ‏عنوان یکی از عناصر کلیدی در اقتصاد هر کشور عمل می‌کند و نقش مهمی در توسعه اقتصادی، افزایش اشتغال و ارتقای سطح رفاه اجتماعی دارد. واردات کالا نیز یکی از اجزای اساسی این فرآیند به ‏شمار می‌آید. در این زمینه، نرخ ارز نیز به‏ عنوان یک عامل کلیدی در تعیین قیمت کالاها و خدمات در بازارهای جهانی، تأثیری به‏ سزا بر تجارت خارجی دارد. علاوه بر این، وابستگی صنعت مواد غذایی و کشاورزی به نرخ ارز از مسائل مهم و حیاتی در اقتصاد ایران محسوب می‌شود. بنابراین، هدف اصلی تحقیق حاضر بررسی تأثیر فضایی انحراف نرخ ارز بر واردات شکر، به‏ عنوان یکی از کالاهای راهبردی کشور، در بازه زمانی 2010 تا 2023 بود و برای<span dir="RTL" lang="FA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;"> <span dir="RTL" lang="AR-SA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">دستیابی به اهداف مطالعه، از روش<span dir="RTL" lang="AR-SA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: FA;"> <span dir="RTL" lang="FA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: FA;">پانل فضایی <span dir="RTL" lang="AR-SA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">استفاده شد. <span dir="RTL" lang="FA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: FA;">نتایج مطالعه نشان داد که متغیرهای شاخص قیمت‌های نسبی واردات، انحراف نرخ ارز حقیقی، درآمدهای نفتی و آزادسازی تجاری بر مقدار واردات محصول شکر تأثیرگذارند. علاوه بر این، بر اساس نتایج به ‏دست‏ آمده، اگر در داخل، انحراف نرخ ارز و سرریزهای آن نوسانی به اندازه یک درصد داشته باشد، آنگاه میزان تغییر آن در داخل باکشش‌تر از تغییرات در کشورهای مجاور است. از این‌‏رو، <span dir="RTL" lang="AR-SA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 107%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">باید برنامه‏‌ها و سیاست‌های کشور به ‏سوی ارتقای کیفیت تنظیم مقررات بازار ارز، پاسخ‏گویی دولت در قبال عملکرد خود و تأمین ثبات بازار ارز معطوف شود.

http://aead.agri-peri.ac.ir/article_132391_302ac80e3ff291e068d1c0840ac27ddc.pdf

موسسه پژوهش های برنامه ریزی، اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه روستایی اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه 1022-4211 33 3 2025 11 22 dentifying Factors Affecting the Adoption of Smart Agriculture in the Face of Climate Variability: A Case Study of Farmers in Fars Province of Iran شناسایی عوامل مؤثر بر پذیرش کشاورزی هوشمند در مواجهه با تنوع اقلیمی: مطالعه موردی کشاورزان استان فارس 209 249 132404 10.30490/aead.2025.367410.1666 FA محسن موسایی دانشیار گروه مدیریت کشاورزی، واحد گچساران، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، گچساران، ایران 0000-0002-7831-3758 Journal Article 2025 03 19 Introduction: Climate change is one of the most important ecological problems of the 21st century, which has significant impacts on water resources, soil, floods and soil erosion. Thus, adopting appropriate measures to reduce the concerned damages requires assessing the impact of climate change and the effectiveness of adaptation options. The climate change affects all economic sectors to some extent and has widespread consequences on natural ecosystems and is a very important factor in intensifying the occurrence of dust, biodiversity loss, pest outbreaks in ecosystems, threatening the biological functions of wetlands and changing the natural geographical distribution of animals. Therefore, the issue of climate change and its consequences as a global problem requires further investigation. Smart agriculture is an emerging concept that refers to the management of agricultural land with Artificial Intelligence (AI), Internet of Things (IOT), and robotics. The goal of using smart agriculture is to improve the quantity and quality of products and reduce the human labor required during the production process. The smart agriculture provides farmers with various technologies such as sensors, software, robots, connections, positioning, and data analysis. In this way, the farmers can control their land anywhere and make the best decisions with the useful information obtained from the tools. The goal of smart agriculture is to provide globally applicable principles for agricultural management for food security under the influence of climate change. One of the main features of smart agriculture is to meet three objectives: increasing food security through increased productivity and income, resilience and adaptation to climate change, and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. According to the mentioned materials, this research aimed to investigate the factors influencing the adoption of smart agriculture to respond to (in the face of) climate variability among the farmers of Fars province of Iran. Materials and Methods: This study ws an applied research in terms of purpose and a descriptive-survey research in terms of methodology. The statistical population of the study included 287,863 farmers in Fars province. Morgan table was used to determine the sample size; and based on this table, the sample size was determined 384 people. Also, a simple random sampling method was used to select the sample size. The main tool for collecting research data was a questionnaire. In order to determine the construct validity, Average Variance Extracted (AVE) index was calculated; and to calculate the reliability of the questionnaire, Composite Reliability (CR) test and Cronbach’s alpha coefficient were used. Frequency distribution tables and central tendency indices including frequency distribution, standard and mean deviations were used to describe the research variables as well as Partial Least Squares (PLS) approach and coefficient of determination, CVCom and CVRed statistics were used to fit the model. SPSS22 and SMART PLS2 software were used to analyze the research data. Results and Discussion: The results of the structural equation test for the relationship between the studied variables and adoption of smart agriculture for responding to (in the face of) climate variability showed that the significance of individual factors was 10.057, indicating a greater value than the critical limit of 1.96, and the factor loading value in the standard case was estimated 0.962, indicating that the relationship between the two variables was positive and in the direct direction, because the coefficient obtained was positive. For agricultural factors, the significance was 8.846, and the factor loading value in the standard case was calculated 0.883, indicating that the relationship between the two variables was positive and in the direct direction as well. For the social factors, it was equal to 6.693, and the factor loading value in the standard case was equal to 0.680, indicating that the relationship between the two variables was positive and in the direct direction too. Finally, for the economic factors, the significance was 4.916 and the factor loading value in the standard case was obtained as 0.425, indicating that the relationship between the economic factors and the adoption of smart agriculture tin the face of the climate variability was positive and in a direct direction as well, because the obtained coefficient was positive. The study findings showed that there were positive and significant relations of the social, agricultural and individual factors with the adoption of smart agriculture in the face of the climate variability. <span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.0pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: 'Times New Roman','serif'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-font-kerning: 1.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">Conclusion and <span style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.0pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: 'Times New Roman','serif'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">Suggestions: <span style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.0pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: 'Times New Roman','serif'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">Based on the study results, indicating that there were some positive and significant relations between the studied economic, social, agricultural and individual factors and the adoption of smart agriculture in the face of the climate change (variability), it is suggested that the government take necessary measures to provide the economic and technical infrastructure needed to implement the smart agriculture; also, special and low-interest facilities be considered for farmers who are more inclined to adopt it. In addition, it is suggested that in order to promote the smart agriculture, in addition to focusing on educational and extension programs that can lead to changes in farmers’ attitudes and behaviors, a special attention should be paid to issues such as the cultural and social status of target groups as well as the individual characteristics of farmers, especially young and progressive farmers with higher levels of education. <span dir="RTL" lang="AR-SA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; letter-spacing: -.1pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">تغییرات آب‌وهوایی تهدیدی بزرگ و فزاینده، برای امنیت غذایی جهان است. دامنه و سرعت تغییرات آب‏‌وهوایی و اثرات سازگاری و تعدیلی آن در کشاورزی، برای بخش‌‏هایی بزرگ از جمعیت جهان در آینده، حیاتی و بحرانی خواهد بود. کشاورزی هوشمند، رویکردی برای هدایت مدیریت کشاورزی در عصر تغییر آب‏‌وهوایی است. پژوهش <span dir="RTL" lang="FA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; letter-spacing: -.1pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: FA;">حاضر، با هدف شناسایی عوامل مؤثر بر پذیرش کشاورزی هوشمند در مواجهه با تنوع اقلیمی، جزو<span dir="RTL" lang="FA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; letter-spacing: -.1pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;"> <span dir="RTL" lang="AR-SA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; letter-spacing: -.1pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">پژوهش‌‏‏های توصیفی از نوع همبستگی بوده، از لحاظ ماهیت، کمّی و از لحاظ هدف، کاربردی است. جامعة آماری پژوهش شامل کشاورزان استان فارس <span dir="RTL" lang="FA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; letter-spacing: -.1pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: FA;">به تعداد 287456 نفر بود که بر اساس جدول مورگان، تعدد 384 نفر به ‏عنوان نمونه انتخاب شدند<span dir="RTL" lang="AR-SA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; letter-spacing: -.1pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">. برای انتخاب حجم نمونه، از روش نمونه‌‏گیری خوشه‌‏ای استفاده شد. ابزار مورد استفاده برای گردآوری‌ اطلاعات پرسشنامه بود که روایی آن از طریق پانل متخصصان و پایایی <span dir="RTL" lang="FA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; letter-spacing: -.1pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: FA;">آن <span dir="RTL" lang="AR-SA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; letter-spacing: -.1pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">از طریق ضریب آلفای کرونباخ به‏ دست آمد. در بخش اول پرسشنامه، سؤالات مربوط به ویژگی‏‏‌های فردی پاسخ‏گویان و در بخش دوم، سؤالات تخصصی برای سنجش متغیر‏های تحقیق شامل 41 گویه بود که بر اساس طیف لیکرت پنج ‏گزین‏ه‌ای (خیلی کم= 1 تا خیلی زیاد= 5) تنظیم شد. جهت تجزیه و تحلیل داده‌‏‏ها، از نرم‌‏افزار‏های <span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: 'Times New Roman','serif'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: 'B Mitra'; letter-spacing: -.1pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">SPSS22<span dir="RTL" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; letter-spacing: -.1pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;"> و <span style="font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: 'Times New Roman','serif'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: 'B Mitra'; letter-spacing: -.1pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">Smart PLS2<span dir="RTL" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; letter-spacing: -.1pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;"> استفاده شد. یافته‏‏‌های پژوهش نشان داد که عوامل اقتصادی،‌ اجتماعی، زراعی و فردی با پذیرش کشاورزی هوشمند در مواجهه با تنوع اقلیمی رابطه مثبت و معنی‌دار دارند. بر همین اساس، پیشنهاد می‌شود که <span dir="RTL" lang="FA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; letter-spacing: -.1pt; mso-ansi-language: FA; mso-fareast-language: FA; mso-bidi-language: FA;">به‏ منظور ترویج کشاورزی هوشمند، علاوه بر تمرکز بر برنامه‌‏‏های آموزشی و ترویجی در راستای تغییر نگرش و رفتار کشاورزان، به ‏ویژه به مسائلی مانند وضعیت فرهنگی و اجتماعی گروه‌‏‏های هدف نیز توجه شود.

http://aead.agri-peri.ac.ir/article_132404_599bcd985b43f329c8c391db4d90823a.pdf

موسسه پژوهش های برنامه ریزی، اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه روستایی اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه 1022-4211 33 3 2025 11 22 Bayesian Analysis of Advertising Effectiveness in Iran’s Dairy Industry Using Saturation and Sales Funnel Models تحلیل بیزی بازده تبلیغات در صنعت لبنیات ایران با الگوی اشباع و قیف فروش 251 282 132401 10.30490/aead.2025.367476.1682 FA حبیب شهبازی دانشیار اقتصاد کشاورزی (تولید و مدیریت)، دانشگاه سید جمال الدین اسدابادی، اسدآباد، همدان 0000-0002-1047-3528 Journal Article 2025 07 27 Introduction: In Iran’s dynamic and competitive Fast-Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) market, particularly in the dairy sector, the effectiveness of advertising has become a pressing concern for both private companies and policymakers. Despite the essential role of dairy consumption in public health and nutrition, per capita dairy consumption in Iran has declined over the past decade, falling below WHO-recommended levels. This trend has been attributed, in part, to ineffective advertising strategies and the misallocation of promotional resources. Therefore, this study addressed this gap by proposing a data-driven, Bayesian-based framework to evaluate the effectiveness of multimedia advertising across various stages of the consumer decision-making process, modeled as a sales funnel (awareness, interest, desire, and action). Unlike conventional linear advertising models, this research accounted for saturation, delayed effects, and the varying impact of different media channels at each funnel stage. The key objective was to quantify the contribution of each media type (television, digital media, and radio) on dairy product sales, while also identifying the most efficient media mix strategy. The study drew upon recent advances in Media Mix Modeling (MMM) and Bayesian inference to analyze the nuanced relationship between advertising and consumer response, offering practical insights for optimizing advertising expenditure. Materials and Methods: The study employed a Bayesian MMM framework to capture the nonlinear, multi-stage, and time-dependent nature of advertising effectiveness. The analytical model was based on a decomposition of total sales into baseline sales and cumulative effects of advertisements across four funnel stages. A nonlinear Michaelis-Menten function was used to model advertising saturation, while ad carryover effects were represented using exponential decay (Adstock) functions. Weekly sales data were collected from six major Iranian dairy brands including Pegah, Kaleh, Mimas, Damdaran, Sabah, and Ramak, covering a 24-week period from July to December 2024, totaling 144 observations. Advertising expenditures were disaggregated into three channels: television, digital media, and radio. Control variables included raw milk prices, seasonal dummies, national holidays, and competitor advertising intensity. The parameters of the model (e.g. baseline sales, media effectiveness weights, saturation point, and carryover coefficients) were estimated via Bayesian inference using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques— specifically, Gibbs sampling and the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. Posterior distributions were derived for each parameter, and convergence was assessed using the R-hat statistic and trace plots. Model accuracy was validated using predictive checks, WAIC, and leave-one-out cross-validation (LOO-CV). Results and Discussion: The Bayesian analysis yielded critical insights into how different media channels contribute to sales across the consumer decision-making funnel. The baseline weekly sales, absent any advertising, were estimated at 12,300 units (95 percent CI: 10,050-14,500), serving as a benchmark for evaluating media effectiveness. Among the media channels, television had the greatest influence at the awareness stage, with a posterior coefficient of 0.48, indicating a strong but short-lived impact. Digital advertising was more effective in the desire and action stages, with a coefficient of 0.35, offering longer-lasting effects on purchasing behavior. The impact of radio was limited and statistically insignificant. The analysis also captured the saturation effect of advertising, modeled using the Michaelis-Menten function, indicating that returns began to diminish sharply after 8 million IRR per week in ad spending. Moreover, the carryover coefficient of 0.82 reflected the gradual and persistent nature of advertising effects, which decay over time but remain significant across several weeks. Breaking down the sales funnel revealed that awareness accounted for 35 percent of the total impact, while interest (25 percent), desire (20 percent), and action (20 percent) comprised the remaining 65 percent. These findings stress the importance of allocating more resources to media like digital platforms that influence deeper stages of the funnel. Scenario-based simulations using Monte Carlo methods explored various budget allocation strategies. Increasing the share of TV advertising from 50 to 70 percent yielded only an 8 percent sales growth due to rapid saturation. Conversely, raising digital ad share from 30 to 50 percent resulted in a 14 percent increase in sales. The optimal mix— 45 percent TV, 40 percent digital, and 15 percent radio— produced the highest gain at 18 percent, highlighting the need for a balanced, stage-specific media strategy. Control variables also played significant roles. Higher raw milk prices negatively affected sales (−0.27 coefficient), while national holidays led to a 12 percent decline. Seasonal changes showed a +0.08 uplift in spring and summer, and competitor advertising had a −0.19 crowding-out effect. In sum, the Bayesian funnel model effectively captured the complex, nonlinear nature of advertising response and provides a valuable framework for data-driven planning in the dairy industry. <span style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.0pt; line-height: 107%; font-family: 'Calibri','sans-serif'; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">Conclusion and Suggestions: <span style="font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.0pt; line-height: 107%; font-family: 'Calibri','sans-serif'; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA;">This study provides a robust quantitative framework for evaluating multimedia advertising effectiveness in the Iranian dairy sector. By integrating the sales funnel structure with Bayesian inference and nonlinear modeling techniques, the research captures both immediate and long-term impacts of different advertising channels while accounting for saturation and media interaction effects. The findings underscore that effective advertising is not merely a function of budget volume, but of strategic allocation based on media roles within the consumer journey. Digital media, despite its slower initial uptake, delivers more durable influence, particularly at the purchase stage. Television, while useful for brand awareness, quickly reaches its saturation point. In sum, the proposed framework can guide data-driven advertising strategy formulation, maximize return on investment, and support national policy design in other consumer industries facing similar market dynamics <span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 85%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">پژوهش حاضر با هدف پاسخ به شکاف موجود در ادبیات تبلیغات یعنی، فقدان یک چارچوب کمی و داده‌محور برای سنجش نقش نسبی رسانه‌ها در مراحل مختلف قیف فروش در صنایع مصرفی ایران، به‌ویژه صنعت لبنیات، طراحی شد. تاکنون، مطالعات مشابه بیشتر بر کل اثر تبلیغات تمرکز کرده و کمتر به تفکیک سهم هر رسانه در مراحل آگاهی، علاقه، تمایل و اقدام پرداخته‌اند. در مطالعة حاضر، از مدل‌سازی ترکیب رسانه‌ای مبتنی بر استنباط بیزی استفاده شد، که امکان برآورد دقیق و هم‏زمان اثر رسانه‌ها و رفتار اشباع تبلیغاتی را فراهم می‌آورد. بدین منظور، داده‌های پانل شامل <span lang="FA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 85%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-language: FA;">۱۴۴<span lang="FA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 85%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';"> <span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 85%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">مشاهده هفتگی از فروش شش ویژند (برند) لبنی طی تیر تا آذر <span lang="FA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 85%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-language: FA;">۱۴۰۳<span lang="FA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 85%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';"> <span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 85%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">گردآوری و تحلیل شد. برای سنجش رفتار اشباع، تابع مایکل- <span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 85%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">منتن به ‏کار گرفته شد و برای بررسی سیاست‌های مختلف تخصیص بودجه رسانه‌ای، شبیه‌سازی مونت‌کارلو به اجرا درآمد. نتایج پژوهش نشان داد که مرحله آگاهی به‌تنهایی <span lang="FA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 85%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-language: FA;">۳۵<span lang="FA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 85%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';"> <span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 85%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">درصد از فروش نهایی را تبیین می‌کند و سهم سه مرحله علاقه، تمایل و اقدام، در مجموع، <span lang="FA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 85%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-language: FA;">۶۵<span lang="FA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 85%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';"> <span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 85%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">درصد است. بدین ترتیب، تبلیغات تلویزیونی عمدتاً در آگاهی اثرگذار است، اما سریعاً به سطح اشباع می‌رسد و بازده نزولی پیدا می‌کند؛ در مقابل، تبلیغات دیجیتال اثر ماندگارتر و قوی‌تر بر مراحل میانی و پایانی قیف دارد. تحلیل سناریوها حاکی از آن بود که ترکیب بهینه شامل <span lang="FA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 85%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-language: FA;">۴۵<span lang="FA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 85%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';"> <span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 85%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">درصد تلویزیون،<span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 85%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-language: FA;"> <span lang="FA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 85%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-language: FA;">چهل<span lang="FA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 85%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';"> <span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 85%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">درصد دیجیتال و <span lang="FA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 85%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-language: FA;">پانزده<span lang="FA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 85%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';"> <span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 85%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">درصد رادیو بیشترین افزایش فروش (<span lang="FA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 85%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-language: FA;">هجده<span lang="FA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 85%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';"> <span lang="AR-SA" style="font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 85%; font-family: 'B Mitra'; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman';">درصد) را ایجاد می‌کند. این نتایج تأکید می‌کند که راهبرد تبلیغاتی موفق، به ‏جای افزایش بودجه مطلق، باید بر تخصیص بهینه مبتنی بر داده و شناخت رفتار اشباع رسانه‌ها استوار باشد.

http://aead.agri-peri.ac.ir/article_132401_f82ced219a862a79ef2d425bedc9fbee.pdf