موسسه پژوهش های برنامه ریزی، اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه روستایی اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه 1022-4211 33 4 2026 02 20 Explanation of Export Clusters of Iran’s Cherry Based on Prioritization of Target Markets بررسی خوشه‌های صادراتی گیلاس ایران بر مبنای اولویت‌بندی بازارهای هدف 132138 10.30490/aead.2024.366011.1602 FA اتابک کاظم پور کهریز دانشجوی دکترای اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده اقتصاد و توسعه، دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران. 0000-0003-4369-5431 حامد رفیعی دانشیار اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی، دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران. 0000-0002-1279-6830 سید صفدر حسینی استاد اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی، دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران. Journal Article 2024 06 05 Introduction: Nowadays, there is interdependence between the economies of different countries and it is difficult to find a country that has a closed economy. In other words, all the economies of the world are interconnected, but the degree of openness of the economy varies from country to country. One of the ways to reach global markets in developing countries is to develop the export of non-oil products, especially agricultural products. In this regard, it is necessary to know the country’s products and activities that have a comparative advantage and the potential to influence the global market. With the production of 105,000 tons of cherries and having a share of four percent of the total global production of this product in 2022, Iran has ranked third among the top producers of this product in the world. However, despite the high potential in cherries production, Iran has never been able to gain a suitable position among the exporters of this product in the world and take proper advantage of its capacities in exporting this product. On the other hand, the lack of comprehensive research on determining appropriate target markets and clustering them to active presence in it, the issue of choosing the right target market of agricultural products in developing countries, including Iran, is one of the important issues that is given less attention in the course of the economic development of the agricultural sector. Therefore, considering the importance of choosing the right export markets in terms of the producers’ income and the development of agricultural products export, this study aimed at investigating the export market structure as well as conducting the prioritization and clustering of the export target markets of cherries product during 2003-2022. Materials and Methods: This research investigated the structure of the export market, followed by prioritization and clustering of the export target markets of Iranian cherries curing 2003-2022. For this purpose, first, by using Concentration Ratio (CR) and Herfindahl-Hirschman Indicator (HHI), the commercial pattern and export market structure of Iranian cherries were examined; and in order to prioritize and cluster target markets of Iranian cherries, numerical taxonomy and k-means analysis methods were used, respectively. It is worth mentioning that in the present study, in order to reach the desired goals regarding the prioritization and clustering of the target markets of Iranian cherries exports, ten indicators of market attractiveness were used, which include: 1) the target country’s share of Iran’s cherries exports, 2) the export price of Iran's cherries in the target countries, 3) inverse ranking of the target countries in Iran’s cherries exports, 4) market capacity of the target countries for cherry products, 5) economic growth of the target country, 6) per capita income in the target country, 7) consumer price index in the target country, 8) degree of openness of the economy in the target country, 9) export competitiveness of the agricultural sector in the target country, and 10) import competitiveness of the agricultural sector in the target country. Results and Discussion: The study results showed that during the period under review, first, the export market structure of Iran’s cherry was a closed oligopoly, and then, it moved towards a dominant market by becoming more exclusive. In other words, the results of the structure analysis of the Iranian cherries export market showed that the export destinations of this product were not diverse and every year the major part of Iran’s cherry exports was limited to only a few countries. Also, the results of prioritizing the target markets for Iran’s cherry exports showed that United Arab Emirates, Afghanistan, Bahrain and Hong Kong were the main priorities for Iran’s cherry exports, and based on the silhouette width value index obtained from clustering, Iranian export destination countries were divided into four separate clusters. Conclusion and Suggestions: Considering that the structure of Iran’s export market is not diverse and every year the majority of Iran’s cherry exports are made to only a few countries, it is recommended to use the results of the study, while paying attention to the private sector, to move the export market from focusing on the limited and traditional target markets to diversifying these markets. The prioritization of the target markets showed that the country’s cherry export was not done within the framework of a systematic and principled marketing strategy and was mainly random and influenced by political and diplomatic relations with the buyer countries. Therefore, it is suggested that by making appropriate international marketing activities, with proper planning, this product will be exported to new and emerging target markets, and on the other hand, Iran’s export share in low-priority markets (Bahrain, Iraq, Turkmenistan, and Kuwait) should be reduced. از دوران پیش از انقلاب اسلامی تاکنون، توسعه تولید و صادرات محصولات غیرنفتی یکی از اهداف مهم برنامه‌های توسعه کشور بوده است. در همین راستا، شناخت محصولات و فعالیت‌های تولیدی کشور که از شرایط لازم برای نفوذ در بازار جهانی برخوردارند، ضروری به ‏نظر می‌رسد. نظر به توان بالای کشور در زمینه تولید و صادرات گیلاس، در پژوهش حاضر، به بررسی ساختار بازار صادرات و نیز اولویت‌بندی و خوشه‌بندی بازارهای هدف صادراتی این محصول در فاصله زمانی 1401-1382 پرداخته شد. بدین منظور، ابتدا با استفاده از شاخص‌های نسبت‌های تمرکز و هرفیندال-هیرشمن، به بررسی الگوی تجاری و ساختار بازار صادراتی گیلاس کشور پرداخته و در ادامه، به‌منظور اولویت‌بندی و خوشه‌بندی بازارهای هدف گیلاس ایران، به ترتیب، از روش‌های تحلیل تاکسونومی عددی و k میانگین استفاده شد. نتایج بررسی ساختار بازار صادراتی گیلاس ایران نشان داد که مقاصد صادراتی این محصول از تنوع برخوردار نیستند و هرساله، بخش عمدة صادرات گیلاس ایران تنها محدود به چند کشور است. بر اساس نتایج تاکسونومی عددی، کشورهای امارات متحده عربی، افغانستان، بحرین و هنگ‌کنگ اولویت‌های اصلی گیلاس صادراتی ایران بودند و بر اساس شاخص ضریب نیمرخ به‌دست‌آمده از خوشه‌بندی نیز کشورهای هدف صادراتی گیلاس کشور در چهار خوشه جای گرفتند، که از این نتیجه می‌توان به ‏عنوان ابزاری مناسب برای برنامه‌ریزی و سیاست‌گذاری‌های صادراتی سود جست. به دیگر سخن، بهتر است که به ‏جای پرداختن به انتخاب ابزارهای سیاستی برای ورود به بازارهای صادراتی در هر کشور واردکننده، این ابزارها را در چهار خوشه همگن ارائه کرد. از این ‏رو، پیشنهاد می‌شود که حمایت‌های صادراتی در راستای نفوذ بیشتر به بازارهای اولویت‌دار و صادرات هدفمند به خوشه‌های معرفی ‏شده در مطالعة حاضر انجام پذیرد..

http://aead.agri-peri.ac.ir/article_132138_a9f775b6ee20538f46e240ce6147a728.pdf

موسسه پژوهش های برنامه ریزی، اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه روستایی اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه 1022-4211 33 4 2026 02 20 Examining the Possibility of Substitution between Farm Inputs and Marketing Services of Livestock Products بررسی امکان جانشینی بین نهاده‌‌های مزرعه و خدمات بازاریابی محصولات دامی 132405 10.30490/aead.2025.367489.1684 FA محمد رضوانی دانش‌آموختة دکتری اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکدة اقتصاد و توسعة کشاورزی، دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران. مهدی پندار دانشیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکدة اقتصاد و توسعة کشاورزی، دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران. Journal Article 2025 08 04 Introduction: Given the high concentration of the food industry market in Iran and the events of recent years, including the Covid-19 pandemic, it is essential to examine the potential for substitution between farm inputs and marketing services. This investigation will help determine the derived demand functions. Therefore, this research aimed at examining the possibility of substitution and the elasticity of substitution for farm inputs and marketing services regarding red meat, chicken, egg, and milk products from spring 2015 to winter 2022. The present research introduced two main innovations that would distinguish it from previous studies on the farm input and marketing relationship in Iran. First, to estimate price and income elasticities, the Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System (QUAIDS) was employed. This model offers more reliable results than traditional methods due to its higher flexibility and precision. Second, this study explicitly incorporated the COVID-19 pandemic to investigate the effect of this shock on demand relationships and elasticities. The pandemic and its limitations directly impacted household food prices and consumption by creating uncertainty and disrupting supply chains. These measures sharply reduced economic activity, ultimately affecting household income and consumer behavior. By incorporating these changes into the model, this research provided a more accurate and up-to-date analysis of the farm input and marketing relationship, the results of which were vital for current market conditions. Materials and Methods: To investigate the possibility of substitution between farm inputs and marketing services, Wohlgenant’s model (1989) was utilized. This analysis required the examination of price and income elasticities, which were obtained from the Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System (QUAIDS). In order to calculate the price and income elasticities, the price and per capita consumption data of livestock products were needed. In this research, seasonal time series data for the period of spring 2015-winter 2022 were used. The information related to the price of livestock products was obtained from the Joint Stock Company of the Support of Livestock Affairs. To calculate per capita consumption, we first gathered data on the production amounts of red meat, chicken, milk, and eggs from the Joint Stock Company for Livestock Affairs. Then, by summing the amount of output and the amount of import of red meat, chicken, milk and eggs and deducting the amount of export from the concerned amount and dividing it by the population of the country, the amount of consumption per capita was calculated. The amount of export and import of red meat, chicken, milk and eggs was extracted from the export and import report of the Ministry of Agriculture-Jahad (MAJ) of Iran, which is published monthly. Also, according to the investigation of the possibility of replacing farm inputs and marketing services, the information related to the index of meat processing and storage and the production of dairy products were obtained from the data collected by the Central Bank of Iran (CBI) and the population information was obtained from the estimated data of the Statistical Center of Iran (SCI). Results and Discussion: The results of the elasticity calculation indicated that red meat and milk were luxury goods for Iranian consumers, and chicken and eggs were essential goods; also, the demand for red meat, chicken, eggs, and fish was inelastic in terms of price. The characteristics of symmetry and constant returns to scale were checked using the Wald test and based on the chi-square statistic. The elasticity calculation results showed that, for Iranian consumers, red meat and milk were considered luxury goods, whereas chicken and eggs were categorized as essential goods. In addition, the demand for red meat, chicken, eggs, and fish was found to be inelastic with respect to price. Therefore, support policies should focus on providing the minimum protein requirements for low-income households through schemes such as electronic food coupons to prevent essential goods from becoming inaccessible luxuries. Furthermore, given the low values of both self-price and cross-price elasticities, utilizing pricing policies for goods substitution may not be very effective in applying optimal demand management and consumption pattern planning. It is important to note that as mentioned earlier, the Wald test was used to verify the characteristics of symmetry and constant returns to scale, based on the chi-square statistic. The results indicated that the characteristics of symmetry and constant returns to scale were upheld. In fact, the marketing sector for livestock products operates competitively with constant returns to scale. The positive elasticity of substitution found for red meat, chicken, eggs, and milk suggests a substitution relationship between farm inputs and marketing services. Additionally, the significant elasticity of substitution for chicken, eggs, and milk confirms the existence of substitution between these inputs. Conclusion and Suggestions: Considering the potential for substitutability among farm inputs, the implementation of waste reduction methods is crucial. This includes utilizing more skilled labor in the slaughtering and processing of products, enhancing equipment and technology in poultry farms, supporting the growth of packaging industries, and improving transportation processes. These measures are suggested to extend the shelf life of products. در سال‌های اخیر، افزایش تمرکز بازار صنایع غذایی و نوسان‏‌های اقتصادی ناشی از رویدادهایی مانند همه‌گیری کووید-۱۹ ضرورت بازنگری در کارآیی نظام تولید و بازاریابی محصولات دامی را دوچندان کرده است. در این چارچوب، هدف پژوهش حاضر تحلیل رفتار مصرف‌کننده و بررسی امکان جانشینی بین نهاده‌های مزرعه و خدمات بازاریابی برای محصولات دامی شامل گوشت قرمز، مرغ، تخم‌مرغ و شیر بود؛ بدین منظور، از الگوی وولگنانت و نظام تقاضای تقریباً ایده‌آل درجه دوم (QAIDS) و نیز از داده‌های فصلی دوره بهار ۱۳۹۴ تا زمستان ۱۴۰۱ استفاده شد. نتایج برآورد کشش‌ها نشان داد که گوشت قرمز و شیر از نظر درآمدی در زمره کالاهای تشریفاتی (لوکس) و مرغ و تخم‌مرغ کالاهای ضروری به ‏شمار می‏‌روند؛ همچنین، کشش‌ قیمتی تمام محصولات بی‌کشش بوده که بیانگر ماهیت ضروری آنها در سبد مصرفی خانوار است. تشریفاتی بودن گوشت قرمز و شیر می‌تواند زنگ خطری برای امنیت غذایی کشور تلقی شود؛ از این‌رو، پیشنهاد می‌شود که سیاست‌های حمایتی دولت با تمرکز بر تأمین حداقل نیاز پروتئینی خانوارهای کم‌درآمد و نیز اجرای طرح‌هایی نظیر کالابرگ الکترونیک دنبال شود. یافته‌های مربوط به کشش جانشینی مثبت و معنی‌‏دار برای مرغ، تخم‌مرغ و شیر نیز وجود رابطه جانشینی میان نهاده‌های مزرعه و خدمات بازاریابی را تأیید می‌کند. بر این اساس، به‌کارگیری نیروی کار ماهر در مراحل کشتار و فرآوری، ارتقای فناوری و تجهیزات تولید، حمایت از صنایع بسته‌بندی و بهبود نظام حمل‏ونقل برای کاهش ضایعات و افزایش ماندگاری محصولات دامی توصیه می‌شود.

http://aead.agri-peri.ac.ir/article_132405_90a94e161d2eb45b6d900d6dafb47486.pdf

موسسه پژوهش های برنامه ریزی، اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه روستایی اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه 1022-4211 33 4 2026 02 20 Investigating the Impact of Renewable Energy Consumption and Environmental Pollution on Economic Growth of OPEC Member Countries بررسی تأثیر مصرف انرژی تجدیدپذیر و آلودگی محیط زیست بر رشد اقتصادی کشورهای عضو اوپک 132417 10.30490/aead.2025.367371.1653 FA فاطمه سخی دانش‌آموختة دکتری اقتصاد کشاورزی، گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکدگان کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران. 0009-0009-2107-3480 احمد فتاحی اردکانی استاد گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه اردکان، یزد، ایران. 0000-0002-3609-6345 یدالله بستان دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری، ساری، ایران. 0000-0002-8849-9023 Journal Article 2025 01 22 Introduction: Sustainable economic growth remains a paramount challenge for developing nations, particularly those heavily reliant on non-renewable energy resources. The complex interplay between economic development, environmental sustainability, and energy consumption is central to this challenge. This study aimed at investigating the impact of renewable energy consumption and environmental pollution on the economic growth of Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) member countries. The OPEC member countries, characterized by their abundant fossil fuel reserves and economies deeply intertwined with hydrocarbon revenues, face unique challenges in reconciling economic expansion with environmental stewardship. While these countries have emphasized responsible environmental oversight, a persistent tension exists between growth objectives and ecological imperatives. This research employed the framework of “green economy”, integrating four key pillars (economy, environment, energy, and health) to provide a holistic analysis. By focusing on the OPEC member countries from 1990 to 2020, this study elucidated the long-term relationships and policy implications of transitioning from a pollution-intensive growth model to a sustainable, low-carbon development path. Materials and Methods: This empirical study utilized panel data from ten OPEC member countries (Iran, Algeria, Ecuador, Nigeria, Venezuela, Libya, United Arab Emirates, Iraq, Angola, and Indonesia) over the period 1990-2020. The required data were collected from the World Development Indicators (WDI) database. The methodology involved the advanced panel econometric techniques. First, the panel unit root tests including Levin, Lin & Chu (LLC) and Im, Pesaran & Shin (IPS) were conducted to determine the stationarity properties of the variables. Second, the panel cointegration tests, including Kao’s residual-based test and the Johansen-Fisher panel cointegration test, were employed to examine the existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship among the non-stationary variables. Finally, to estimate the long-run coefficients robustly, Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) and Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) estimators were applied. These methods effectively address potential issues of serial correlation and endogeneity, providing efficient and consistent parameter estimates for the cointegrated panel data. Results and Discussion: The panel unit root tests confirmed that all variables were integrated of order one, I(1). Subsequent cointegration tests (Kao and Johansen-Fisher) strongly rejected the null hypothesis of no cointegration, confirming a stable long-run relationship among the variables. The FMOLS and DOLS estimation results, which showed remarkable consistency in the direction of effects, revealed the following key findings: Renewable Energy Consumption (REC) had a positive and statistically significant relationship with per capita GDP. This indicated that increasing the share of renewables in the energy mix acted as a catalyst for economic growth in OPEC member countries, supporting the transition towards ‘green growth’. CO2 emissions (CO2) had a negative and significant impact on economic growth. This result underscores the tangible economic costs associated with environmental degradation in these nations, challenging the perception that carbon-intensive growth is cost-free and confirming the downward-sloping segment of an Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) relationship in this context. Population Density (POPDEN) had a significantly negative coefficient, suggesting that the strain on resources and infrastructure in the studied OPEC member countries would outweigh any potential positive agglomeration effects, thereby hindering per capita growth. Infant Mortality Rate (MORT) had a significantly negative relationship with the economic growth. This affirms that investments in health, leading to a healthier and more productive workforce, are crucial for a long-term economic development. Total Fertility Rate (FERT): The results of FERT were mixed. The FMOLS estimator showed a positive and significant effect, while the DOLS result was statistically insignificant. This suggests a potentially complex and context-dependent relationship where the positive impact of fertility on growth (through expanding the labor force potential) may be contingent on complementary investments in education and health. Totally, the study findings indicated that the traditional oil-dependent growth model in OPEC member countries would entail a significantly environmental and demographic costs. The path to sustainable economic growth lies not in increased population density or reliance on polluting activities, but in strategic investments in human capital (health) and natural capital (renewable energy). Conclusion and Suggestions: This study confirmed significant long-run relationships between green economy components and economic growth in OPEC nations. The results highlight that the renewable energy consumption and the improved health outcomes (lower infant mortality) are positive drivers of growth, whereas CO2 emissions, high population density, and poor health indicators act as the impediments. The findings offer clear policy implications for achieving sustainable development in resource-rich economies as follows: diversifying the energy mix and promoting the renewables; that is, the OPEC member countries should accelerate the transition from fossil fuels by implementing supportive policies, incentives, and regulations to foster renewable energy industries. This would reduce internal dependency on hydrocarbons, cut carbon emissions, and create new engines for the green growth; internalizing environmental costs; that is, given the negative economic impact of CO2 emissions, policymakers should consider implementing carbon pricing mechanisms or emission caps for major industries, particularly oil and gas, to incentivize pollution reduction; investing in health and human capital; that is, prioritizing healthcare systems to reduce infant mortality is not only a social imperative but a sound economic investment that would enhance labor productivity and long-term growth potential; managing demographic pressures; that is, policies should address the challenges of high population density through the improved urban planning, infrastructure development, and creating productive employment opportunities beyond the hydrocarbon sector; finally, future research; that is, subsequent studies should directly test the EKC hypothesis for the OPEC member countries by including a squared CO2 emissions term and explore the role of institutional quality, governance, and technological innovation in facilitating the green transition. In conclusion, for the OPEC member countries, reconciling economic aspirations with planetary boundaries necessitates a fundamental shift towards a diversified, knowledge-based, and low-carbon economy centered on the pillars of environmental health, clean energy, and human well-being. رشد اقتصادی پایدار از مهم‌ترین دغدغه‌های کشورهای در حال توسعه و به‌ویژه کشورهایی است که اقتصاد آنها به منابع انرژی تجدیدناپذیر وابسته است. از این‌رو، شناخت عوامل مؤثر بر رشد، با توجه به ملاحظات زیست‏‌محیطی و انرژی، اهمیتی دوچندان می‌یابد. در پژوهش حاضر، با هدف بررسی تأثیر مصرف انرژی‌های تجدیدپذیر و شاخص‌های آلودگی محیط زیست بر رشد اقتصادی کشورهای عضو اوپک در دوره‌ زمانی 1990 تا 2020، از رویکردهای اقتصادسنجی پیشرفته شامل حداقل مربعات کاملاً اصلاح‌شده (FMOLS) و حداقل مربعات پویا (DOLS) بهره گرفته شد تا تحلیلی دقیق‏‌تر از رابطه بلندمدت میان متغیرهای کلیدی محیط زیست، انرژی، سلامت و اقتصاد صورت گیرد. نتایج پژوهش نشان داد که انتشار دی‌اکسید کربن، تراکم جمعیت و نرخ مرگ‌ومیر نوزادان اثر منفی و معنی‏‌دار بر رشد اقتصادی دارند، که بیانگر هزینه‌های اجتماعی، بهداشتی و اقتصادی ناشی از تخریب محیط زیست و ضعف سرمایه انسانی در این کشورهاست؛ در مقابل، مصرف انرژی‌های تجدیدپذیر رابطه‌ای مثبت و معنی‏دار با رشد اقتصادی دارد و نقش یک موتور محرک برای گذار به سمت رشد سبز را ایفا می‌کند. همچنین، نرخ باروری کل اثر مثبت بر رشد اقتصادی دارد که البته، شدت و پایداری اثر این متغیر کمتر از سایر متغیرهاست. بر اساس این یافته‌ها، ضروری است که کشورهای عضو اوپک برای دستیابی به توسعه پایدار، راهبردهایی همچون ارتقای کارآیی انرژی، کاهش وابستگی به سوخت‌های فسیلی، کنترل انتشار کربن، سرمایه‌گذاری در سلامت و توسعه فناوری‌های پاک را در دستور کار خود قرار دهند. این نتایج به‏ گونه‌‏ای شفاف گویای اهمیت حرکت از الگوی رشد آلاینده به سمت اقتصاد کم‌کربن است.

http://aead.agri-peri.ac.ir/article_132417_a6bfd5fb8f0da2f4ff6da383e657bffb.pdf

موسسه پژوهش های برنامه ریزی، اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه روستایی اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه 1022-4211 33 4 2026 02 20 Economic Feasibility of Forage Production in Greenhouse Conditions امکان‏‌سنجی اقتصادی تولید علوفه در شرایط گلخانه 132407 10.30490/aead.2025.367450.1675 FA سمانه غزالی استادیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، مرکز ملی تحقیقات شوری، سازمان تحقیقات، آموزش و ترویج کشاورزی، یزد، ایران. غلامحسن رنجبر دانشیار گروه زراعت، مرکز ملی تحقیقات شوری، سازمان تحقیقات، آموزش و ترویج کشاورزی، یزد، ایران. Journal Article 2025 06 09 Introduction: Water scarcity in arid and semi-arid regions is one of the challenges for providing forage. Considering the role of forage crops as raw materials in providing protein and dairy products, maintaining the health of the society and food security of Iran, it has a heavy mission to increase the population and improving the level of health and nutrition of the people. So, it is the responsibility of the policymakers of the production sector to plan more precisely, use all the empty capacities and increase the productivity of available resources with the least reliance on imports which can be an effective step in meeting the food needs of the society. Various solutions have been proposed for producing the forage with less water consumption. One of these solutions is the production of forage in greenhouse conditions. This is especially important in the case of greenhouse infrastructures, which are not economically viable for various reasons, including increased salinity of irrigation water, the prevalence of pests and diseases, and imbalances in soil nutrients. However, there is a hypothesis that given the many advantages such as high-water savings and increased production, the greenhouses can be dedicated to forage cultivation, especially during free times when other plants are not being cultivated there. It is believed that in a greenhouse system, while producing high forage compared to open space, significant savings can be made in the use of water resources, energy, consumption of inputs such as fertilizer, pesticides, and labor costs. This study aimed mainly at evaluating the economic feasibility of forage production using corn and sorghum forage plants in the greenhouses in order to diversify the greenhouse production. In this context, an economic comparison with common greenhouse crops (i.e. green cucumber and tomato) was made. Materials and Methods: To assess the economic feasibility of forage production under greenhouse conditions (with plastic cover), a study was conducted in Yazd province of Iran during 2021-2022 in a 1,000-square-meter greenhouse unit. The economic analysis of the study was evaluated using the future value method to compare incomes and costs. The study did not include all cost items, including the fixed cost of greenhouse construction. Therefore, it was not possible to economically evaluate the net income of each of the two methods of greenhouse cultivation of forage crops or the production of the above-mentioned common greenhouse crops and calculate their economic justification separately. However, it was possible to make a comparison between the incomes obtained and the variable costs spent between two methods of greenhouse cultivation of forage crops or those common greenhouse crops. Thus, if the difference in the future value of the profits of two greenhouses of common crops compared to the forage crops was greater than zero, the greenhouse production of cucumbers and tomatoes would be better. Conversely, a negative difference in the future value of profits indicated an increase in the costs of producing the cucumbers and tomatoes over the forage crops. Results and Discussion: The study results showed that under the greenhouse conditions, sorghum was produced in a yield of about 65,000 kg per thousand square meters of greenhouse in one year with the possibility of six times of cropping. This production rate was at least five times the production of the plant in the field. In the case of corn, with the possibility of planting three times of the plant cultivation during one year in the greenhouse, 27,000 kilograms of forage were produced per thousand square meters. In addition, the profit difference between the production of corn from cucumbers and tomatoes at three interest rates of 10, 15 and 20 percent was 1229511250, 1404908281 and 1596240000 IRI rials per thousand square meters, respectively; and the profit difference between the production of sorghum from cucumbers and tomatoes at these interest rates was 726060500, 829637312 and 942624000 IRI rials per thousand square meters, respectively. Thus, the production of forage crops was found to be less profitable than cucumbers and tomatoes. Therefore, the economic evaluation of forage production under the greenhouse conditions, considering current costs (excluding fixed costs and greenhouse construction), yield and income in 2024, showed that in the greenhouses where the annual production of cucumbers and tomatoes was less than 19804 and 25207 kilograms per thousand square meters, there would be an advantage in producing corn and sorghum, respectively. Conclusion and Suggestions: Based on the results of this study, it is suggested that the greenhouses established during free times that are not under common greenhouse crops should be dedicated to the forage cultivation, due to many advantages such as high-water savings and increased forage yield. The results of the economic evaluation comparing the production of cucumber and tomato crops in a common greenhouse compared to the greenhouse cultivation of forage crops indicated that the difference in economic profit was towards the production of cucumber and tomato, unless the average yield of these crops was less than 19804 and 25207 kilograms per thousand square meters; in any case, the cultivation of forage crops (i.e. corn and sorghum), respectively, is recommended. کمبود آب از چالش‌های مناطق خشک و نیمه‌خشک برای تأمین علوفه است. راهکارهای گوناگون برای تولید علوفه با مصرف آب کمتر پیشنهاد شده است. یکی از این راهکارها تولید علوفه در شرایط گلخانه‌ای است. این موضوع به‌ویژه در مورد استفاده از زیرساخت‌های گلخانه‌ای که به‏ دلایل مختلف از جمله افزایش شوری آب آبیاری، شیوع آفات و بیماری‌ها و عدم تعادل عناصر غذایی خاک، تولید گیاهان رایج در آنها اقتصادی نیست، اهمیت بیشتری دارد. برای ارزیابی امکان‌سنجی اقتصادی تولید علوفه در شرایط گلخانه‌ای (با پوشش پلاستیکی)، مطالعه‌ای در یزد در سال‌های 1401-1400 در یک واحد گلخانه هزار متر مربعی انجام شد. گیاهان علوفه‌ای مورد بررسی شامل ذرت و سورگوم بودند که با دو محصول گلخانه‌ای سودآور خیار و گوجه‏ فرنگی، با دارا بودن بیشترین سطح زیر کشت در این استان مقایسه شدند. تجزیه‏ و تحلیل اقتصادی پروژه با استفاده از روش ارزش آینده برای مقایسه منافع و هزینه‌ها ارزیابی شد. نتایج پژوهش نشان داد که در شرایط گلخانه، با تولید سورگوم در یک سال، با امکان شش نوبت چین، برداشت عملکردی این محصول به حدود 65000 کیلوگرم در هزار متر مربع گلخانه رسید، که حداقل پنج برابر تولید این گیاه در شرایط مزرعه است. در مورد ذرت نیز با امکان سه نوبت کاشت گیاه در طول یک سال، تولید این محصول به 27000 کیلوگرم در هزار متر مربع گلخانه رسید. افزون بر این، تفاوت سود ذرت علوفه‌ای از محصولات رایج در سه نرخ بهره ده، پانزده و بیست درصد، به ‏ترتیب، برابر با 1229511250، 1404908281 و 1596240000 ریال در هزار متر مربع و تفاوت سود سورگوم علوفه‌ای از محصولات رایج در این سه نرخ بهره، به ‏ترتیب، برابر با 726060500، 829637312 و 942624000 ریال در هزار متر مربع بود. بدین ترتیب، تولید محصولات گلخانه‌ای رایج در مقایسه با ذرت علوفه‌ای و سورگوم علوفه‌ای اقتصادی‌تر بود. با این همه، ارزیابی اقتصادی تولید ذرت علوفه‌ای و سورگوم علوفه‌ای در شرایط گلخانه بر اساس معیار سود در سال 1403 نشان داد که در گلخانه‌هایی با تولید سالانه محصولات رایج در آنها، به‏ ترتیب، کمتر از 19804 و 25207 کیلوگرم در هزار متر مربع، مزیت با تولید گیاهان علوفه‌ای است.

http://aead.agri-peri.ac.ir/article_132407_2bf9cc938c656faf01f2296f9774dd4b.pdf

موسسه پژوهش های برنامه ریزی، اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه روستایی اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه 1022-4211 33 4 2026 02 20 Optimization of Revenue from Thinning of the Kiwifruit Cultivar Hayward Using Gray Analytic Hierarchy Process (GAHP) Method بهینه‌سازی درآمد حاصل از تُنُک کردن میوه کیوی‌فروت رقم هایوارد با روش تحلیل سلسله‌مراتبی خاکستری (GAHP) 132423 10.30490/aead.2026.367546.1701 FA رسول برزگر دانش‌آموختة دکتری علوم و مهندسی باغبانی، دانشکدة کشاورزی، دانشگاه گیلان، رشت، ایران. 0000-0003-0238-8670 محمود قاسم نژاد استاد گروه علوم و مهندسی باغبانی، دانشکدة کشاورزی، دانشگاه گیلان، رشت، ایران. رضا اسفنجاری کناری استادیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکدة کشاورزی، دانشگاه گیلان، رشت، ایران. Journal Article 2025 10 22 Introduction: Fruit thinning is an effective technique for controlling fruit number and size, defined as the removal of certain flowers or fruits during their early stages of development. Kiwifruit growers often exhibit reluctance toward deciding on thinning operations due to concerns over the potential negative impact on yield, and consequently, on total revenue. Furthermore, a lack of precise knowledge among many growers regarding the appropriate timing and methodology of thinning, leading to their inaction. Therefore, developing a suitable model to define the execution protocol for thinning is essential to ensure the maximum economic return for the crop. Among the most reliable decision-making methodologies, Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) stands out as one of the most widely used techniques for solving Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) problems, owing to its numerous capabilities and features. This study aimed primarily at investigating the economic justification of thinning the Hayward kiwifruit cultivar at various intervals. For this purpose, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Grey Analytic Hierarchy Process (GAHP) methods were employed to assign weights to the relationship between fruit quality grades and thinning dates, thereby, determining how the thinning practice can lead to enhanced production revenue. Materials and Methods: In order to carry out this research, there were used five fruit quality evaluation criteria including premium grade, grade I, grade II, grade III, and out-of-grade fruits and also considered five alternatives, including thinning times at 15, 30, 45, and 60 Days After Fruit Set (DAFS) as well as ‘no thinning’ as a control treatment alternative. Data analysis was performed based on pairwise comparisons regarding the five criteria of the decision tree, utilizing both AHP and GAHP to rigorously assess subjective expert judgments. This multi-method approach was chosen to enhance the robustness of the decision-making framework by incorporating both AHP and GAHP evaluation techniques for subjective ranking. The quantitative basis for these comparisons was derived from the wholesale prices of kiwifruit in Guilan province of Iran. Results and Discussion: The study results showed that the criterion of premium grade fruit with an average relative weight of 0.490 had the most important role among all criteria; also, the criterion of grade I fruit with an average relative weight of 0.286 was ranked the second. As shown by the results, the criterion of the grade II fruit with the average relative weight of 0.132 was in the third place, while the out-of-grade fruit and grade III fruit were ranked the fourth and fifth with 0.046 and 0.044, respectively. In addition, the final comparison of the relative weight of the studied alternatives compared to the target showed that the thinning treatment in 30 DAFS had the highest relative weight (0.236) among all alternatives compared to the target, which is the best thinning time for Hayward kiwifruit. The thinning at 15 DAFS with an average relative weight of 0.215 was ranked the second in importance, and the thinning operations at 45 and 60 DAFS with averages of 0.207 and 0.183 were ranked the next in importance, respectively. The alternatives were compared to the target and the control had the lowest weight with a rate of 0.158. The findings of the conventional AHP and the Gray AHP (GAHP) showed that the criterion of premium fruit had the greatest effect on the revenue of kiwifruit growers; so, horticultural operations should be directed towards producing more premium fruit. This indicated that thinning in one month after fruit set had a greater effect on producing higher quality fruits and, as a result, greater economic value than other thinning times. Also, fruit thinning at different times had a significant effect on increased economic performance of vines so that the total economic performance of each Hayward kiwifruit vine would increase as a result of thinning compared to the control vine. Conclusion and Suggestions: The results obtained from this research showed that different fruit thinning times had certain significant effects on the revenue and weight of different quality grades of Hayward kiwifruit; and timely fruit thinning in Hayward kiwifruit led to the production of fruits with the same size and shape by changing the process of distribution of carbohydrates between fruits. The results obtained from the total revenue in each treatment indicated that regardless of the time of the thinning operation, despite the removal of malformed and abnormal fruits that led to a decrease in the production of grade II fruit, there was a change in the quality of production from grade II fruit to grade I fruit, while this change was also observed from grade I fruit to premium grade fruit. This proves that the quality performance is more important than the weight performance in the production of Hayward kiwifruit and is effective in increasing the revenue of growers. In general, the study results showed that the kiwifruit thinning is economically viable, so it can be suggested to the kiwifruit growers to perform thinning, especially the thinning of malformed and abnormal fruits, 30 DAFS. تُنُک کردن میوه یک روش مؤثر برای کنترل تعداد و اندازه میوه است. پرورش‌دهندگان کیوی‌فروت، به‌دلیل نگرانی از اثر منفی تنک کردن در عملکرد و در پی آن، در درآمد کل، به تنک کردن این محصول چندان رغبتی ندارند. هدف اصلی مطالعه حاضر بررسی توجیه اقتصادی تنک کردن میوه کیوی‌فروت رقم هایوارد در زمان‌های مختلف بود؛ و بدین منظور، از روش فرآیند تحلیل سلسله‌مراتبی (AHP) و روش فرآیند تحلیل سلسله‏ مراتبی خاکستری (GAHP) برای وزن‏‌دهی به ارتباط درجات کیفی میوه‌ها و تاریخ تنک کردن در کیوی‌فروت رقم هایوارد استفاده شد تا مشخص شود که چگونه تنک کردن می‌تواند به بهبود درآمد تولید بینجامد. برای وزن‌دهی به معیارها و گزینه‌های مورد بررسی در مدل تصمیم‌گیری، از روش مقایسات زوجی استفاده شد. در این راستا، پنجاه مقایسه زوجی در ساختاری شامل پنج معیار کیفی (میوه ممتاز، درجه یک، درجه دو، درجه سه و خارج از رده) و پنج گزینه (زمان‌های تنک کردن در 15، 30، 45 و 60 روز پس از تشکیل میوه و بدون تنک کردن) به‌عنوان شاهد در نظر گرفته شد. مبنای کمی این مقایسات، قیمت‌های عمده‌فروشی کیوی‌فروت در استان گیلان بود. نتایج تجزیه واریانس نشان داد که تأثیر زمان‌های مختلف تنک کردن بر درآمد کل تاک کیوی‌فروت در سطح یک درصد معنی‏دار بوده است. بیشترین درآمد کل در تیمارهای تنک کردن ۳۰ و ۱۵ روز پس از تشکیل میوه به ‏دست آمد که این میزان درآمد حدود دوازده درصد بیش از تیمار شاهد بوده و از نظر آماری، با آن دارای تفاوت معنی‌دار است. نتایج نشان داد که در بین گزینه‌های مطرح‌شده، تاریخ تنک کردن 30 روز پس از تشکیل میوه، با وزن نسبی 0/236، بهترین زمان تنک کردن برای افزایش درآمد کل در تاکستان کیوی‌فروت رقم هایوارد است و تنک کردن در 15، 45 و 60 روز پس از تشکیل میوه، به ‏ترتیب، در اولویت‌‌های بعدی قرار گرفته و شاهد، پایین‌ترین وزن را داشته است. افزون بر این، نتایج مطالعه حاضر نشان داد که تنک کردن میوه کیوی‌فروت از نظر اقتصادی بسیار مقرون ‏به‌صرفه است. بنابراین، می‌توان به پرورش‌دهندگان کیوی‌فروت تنک کردن 30 روز پس از تشکیل میوه را پیشنهاد ‌داد.

http://aead.agri-peri.ac.ir/article_132423_3b4d8dc18bec4fa5b1020e9e6536a888.pdf

موسسه پژوهش های برنامه ریزی، اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه روستایی اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه 1022-4211 33 4 2026 02 20 Strategic Planning for Productivity Enhancement in Iran’s Horticultural Sector: A Sustainable Approach to Energy Imbalance Management برنامه‌ریزی راهبردی ارتقای بهره‌وری در زیربخش باغبانی ایران: رویکردی پایدار به مدیریت ناترازی انرژی 132420 10.30490/aead.2026.367548.1702 FA علی احمدی فیروزجائی استادیار پژوهشی، بخش تحقیقات اقتصادی، اجتماعی و ترویجی، مرکز تحقیقات و آموزش کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی مازندران، سازمان تحقیقات، آموزش و ترویج کشاورزی، ساری، ایران. 0000-0001-5684-8527 ندا علیزاده استادیار پژوهشی، سازمان تحقیقات، آموزش و ترویج کشاورزی، تهران، ایران. مهرنوش میرزایی بافتی استادیار پژوهشی، دفتر امور اقتصادی، سازمان تحقیقات، آموزش و ترویج کشاورزی، تهران، ایران. پری شکری فیروزجاه استادیار پژوهشی، بخش تحقیقات اقتصادی اجتماعی و ترویجی، مرکز تحقیقات و آموزش کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی مازندران، سازمان تحقیقات، آموزش. ساری. ایران. Journal Article 2025 10 26 Introduction: The Iranian horticultural sector, a critical element of the national economy, currently confronts profound structural challenges stemming from the pervasive national energy imbalance. This phenomenon, which is characterized by significant and often unpredictable volatility in the supply of critical inputs such as electricity and natural gas, introduces considerable and persistent risk to operational stability. This risk is most acute for energy-intensive production nodes, particularly groundwater pumping for irrigation (a process marked by high operational dependency) and the complex climate control systems vital for high-value greenhouse production. Such instability in energy supply directly constrains the potential for sustained growth in Total Factor Productivity (TFP). Furthermore, this challenging external environment is exacerbated by deep-seated structural rigidities, notably the distortionary effects of heavy volumetric energy subsidies. These subsidies inadvertently suppress the necessary economic incentive for producers to undertake significant capital investments in cost-effective, high-efficiency technologies. This disincentive effect consequently contributes to widespread allocative inefficiency across the sector. Therefore, this study mainly aimed at developing a comprehensive, analytically sound, and prioritized strategic framework for enhancing energy productivity and securing long-term TFP growth within the Iranian horticultural sector, focusing specifically on mitigating the complex, interwoven risks associated with energy supply volatility and climate change-induced stress. Materials and Methods: This research employed a robust, sequential, three-stage strategic management methodology, grounded in an applied, descriptive-analytical approach utilizing a mixed-method (qualitative-quantitative) design. The statistical population consisted of 21 principal experts and senior specialists from relevant governmental agencies and academia, selected via purposive sampling to ensure specialized domain expertise. Data collection utilized structured interviews and the iterative Delphi technique to achieve expert consensus on factor identification and weighting. The initial phase involved a detailed Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats (SWOT) analysis, which yielded an Internal Factor Evaluation (IFE=2.670) and an External Factor Evaluation (EFE=3.116) score. The calculation placed the sector’s strategic position in the Aggressive (SO) Strategic Quadrant, suggesting a strong potential for leveraging internal strengths to exploit external opportunities. Subsequently, the Quantitative Strategic Planning Matrix (QSPM) was utilized in the final analytical phase to quantitatively prioritize the six overarching strategies developed from the preceding stages against the weighted SWOT factors, resulting in a Total Attractiveness Score (TAS) for each strategy. Results and Discussion: The QSPM prioritization provided a clear, evidence-based hierarchy for strategic action, primarily underscoring that structural and economic reforms are a necessary condition for successful technological and infrastructural adoption. The six strategies were analytically ranked based on their TASs: Government Support and Targeted Incentives (TAS=7.020); Optimal Energy Management in Microclimates (TAS=6.724); Farmer Education and Awareness Improvement (TAS=6.620); Renovation of Structures and Facilities (TAS=6.089); Use of Renewable Energy and Energy Storage (TAS=5.930); and Use of Waste-to-Energy Systems (TAS=5.539). The assignment of the highest priority (Rank 1) to the economic-institutional strategy, Government Support and Targeted Incentives, is the most significant finding, reinforcing the hypothesis that allocative inefficiency (W3) stemming from subsidized energy prices constitutes the primary structural impediment to TFP growth. This finding suggests a policy transition is warranted: moving away from volumetric consumption subsidies toward targeted investment incentives to restore rational economic motivation. Furthermore, the second and third prioritized strategies focus on crucial complementary actions. Optimal Energy Management in Microclimates (Rank 2) addresses the need to enhance Technical Efficiency in high-risk areas— greenhouses— through the integration of passive and active efficiency technologies. Lastly, Farmer Education and Awareness Improvement (Rank 3) is identified as the vital human capital development component, essential for ensuring that financial and technological investments are effectively utilized by directly mitigating the pervasive poor consumption culture (W1) and technical unawareness (W2) that could otherwise undermine long-term TFP gains. The ranking of the capital-intensive strategies (Ranks 4 and 5) emphasizes that the successful and economically viable implementation of these large-scale investments is highly contingent upon the prior or simultaneous implementation of the higher-ranked economic and behavioral reforms. Conclusions and Policy Recommendations: The study concluded that the transition of the horticultural sector away from the energy imbalance crisis would require a deliberate, coordinated, and three-pronged program: Economic Reforms (to correct price signals and revitalize incentives), Human Capital Development (to improve behavior and technical skill), and Targeted Investment in Efficient Technologies (to modernize vulnerable infrastructure). This integrated approach is critical for building sectoral resilience and sustaining TFP growth. Based on the strategic priorities identified in this research, a comprehensive set of policy recommendations is proposed, centered on the modernization of irrigation pumps with solar panels as a critical measure to reduce grid dependency and mitigate the water-energy nexus crisis. To ensure a successful transition, the gradual phasing out of volumetric energy subsidies must be immediately coupled with low-interest, long-term financing and fiscal incentives, such as tax exemptions and reduced customs duties on efficiency-enhancing agricultural technologies. Furthermore, it is recommended that the Ministry of Energy establish guaranteed feed-in tariffs for surplus electricity to improve investment viability. To ensure technical efficiency, government aid and licensing should be contingent upon mandatory training in energy and water management. Finally, the establishment of a permanent Water-Energy-Agriculture Working Group is essential to streamline bureaucratic processes, such as PV permitting, and to foster the cross-sectoral coordination necessary for the harmonized implementation of national strategies. در پژوهش حاضر، یک چارچوب راهبردی جامع برای ارتقای بهره‌وری انرژی و تضمین رشد بلندمدت بهره‌وری کل عوامل تولید در زیربخش باغبانی ایران ارائه شد، که همواره با چالش‌های اقتصادی و ساختاری ناشی از ناترازی فراگیر انرژی و همچنین، ناکارآمدی تخصیصی آن مواجه بوده است. افزون بر این، در تحقیق کاربردی- راهبردی حاضر، از روش‌شناسی مدیریت راهبردی سه‌مرحله‌ای با رویکرد آمیخته (کیفی- کمی) استفاده شد. اعضای نمونه شامل 21 نفر از خبرگان کلیدی بودند که با استفاده از نمونه‌گیری هدفمند، انتخاب شدند؛ و فرآیند جمع‌آوری اطلاعات از آنها به کمک فن دلفی صورت گرفت. یافته‌های ماتریس سوات (SWOT) موقعیت راهبردی زیربخش باغبانی را در ربع تهاجمی نشان داد، که بیانگر ظرفیت قوی برای بهره‌برداری از فرصت‌ها با استفاده از نقاط قوت است. نتایج ماتریس برنامه‌ریزی راهبردی کمی (QSPM)، به‌طور قاطع، نشان داد که ریشه مشکل بهره‌وری کل عوامل تولید در زیربخش باغبانی سیاستی، ساختاری و رفتاری است، زیرا برای اصلاح ناکارآمدی تخصیصی ، بالاترین اولویت به راهبرد حمایت‌های دولتی و مشوق‌های هدفمند با امتیاز جذابیت کل معادل 7/020 اختصاص یافت. راهبردهای رتبه‏ های دوم و سوم (یعنی، مدیریت بهینه انرژی در میکرواقلیم‌ها با امتیاز جذابیت کل 6/724 و آموزش و ارتقای آگاهی کشاورزان با امتیاز جذابیت کل 6/620 نیز به ‏عنوان اقدام‌های مکمل در راستای ارتقای کارآیی فنی و توسعه سرمایه انسانی حیاتی تشخیص داده شدند. این یافته‌ها نشان داد که گذار پایدار زیربخش باغبانی مستلزم اجرای همگام یک برنامه سه‌جانبه شامل اصلاحات سیاستی، توسعه سرمایه انسانی و سرمایه‌گذاری فنی به‏ منظور رفع ناترازی انرژی است. از این‏‌رو، توصیه‌های سیاستی کلیدی بر اعطای تسهیلات برای نصب سامانه‌های خورشیدی و ارائه یارانه انرژی مشروط به اجرای طرح‌های مدیریت مصرف تأکید دارند.

http://aead.agri-peri.ac.ir/article_132420_592ce64f80d8d1051d8ade3b002309e0.pdf

موسسه پژوهش های برنامه ریزی، اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه روستایی اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه 1022-4211 33 4 2026 02 20 Analysis of Factors Affecting the Transfer of Lean Technology in Agriculture تحلیل عوامل مؤثر بر انتقال فناوری ناب در کشاورزی 132422 10.30490/aead.2026.367532.1696 FA بیژن رضایی دانشیار گروه مدیریت و کارآفرینی، دانشکدة علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه رازی، کرمانشاه، ایران. 0000-0002-2808-5689 هدا نجف پور پژوهشگر پسادکتری، گروه مدیریت و کارآفرینی ، دانشکده علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه رازی، کرمانشاه، ایران. 0000-0002-9826-9512 زینب اکبریان دانشجوی دکتری، گروه مدیریت و کارآفرینی، دانشکده علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه رازی، کرمانشاه، ایران. Journal Article 2025 10 12 Introduction: Lean technology in agriculture is recognized as a transformative paradigm in the present era that has the potential to revolutionize traditional agricultural methods by integrating the most advanced digital technologies such as Artificial Intelligence (AI), the Internet of Things (IoT), robotics, and big data. Lean technology transfer in agriculture, focusing on eliminating resource waste and creating added value in all links of the supply chain, has been proposed as a key solution to confront global challenges such as water scarcity, climate change, and food insecurity. By applying principles such as precise agriculture, smart waste management, and optimization of planting to harvesting processes, this technology not only reduces production costs but also improves product quality and market transparency. The success of this model requires tripartite cooperation between the government, the private sector, and farmers to form a sustainable cycle of production, distribution, and consumption that is in line with the environmental and economic goals of the 21st century. In Iran, despite significant achievements in some areas of agricultural technology, several obstacles, including the dispersion and small scale of production units, infrastructural limitations, lack of an integrated technology transfer system, and shortage of specialized human resources, have challenged the process of utilizing these technologies. This study aimed at analyzing the factors affecting the transfer of lean technology in agriculture. The importance of this study becomes more apparent when we know that according to a report by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), utilizing new technologies can be effective in increasing the productivity of the agricultural sector. Materials and Methods: This applied-developmental research was conducted using a descriptive-survey method. The statistical population of the research included 250 people (130 PhD students and professors of the Faculty of Agriculture of Razi University in Kermanshah province of Iran and 120 managers and specialists of companies located in growth centers and science and technology parks in the province). Using the Cochran formula and simple random stratified sampling method, 161 people were selected from the statistical population while 150 questionnaires were finally completed. The data collection tool was a researcher-made questionnaire with 31 closed-ended questions based on a five-option Likert scale (very low, low, medium, high, very high), whose face validity was examined by a panel of experts. The reliability of the questionnaire was also examined and confirmed by calculating Cronbach’s alpha of 0.89. Composite Reliability (CR) was also used to measure the reliability of the constructs. In addition, the fit of the designed model in relation to the factors affecting the transfer of lean technology in agriculture was also examined in two measurement and structural sections. The Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) measurement (model section) was studied with indicators such as factor loadings, Cronbach’s alpha, Composite Reliability (CR), convergent validity or Average Variance Extracted (AVE ) index as well as divergent validity (Fornell-Larker test). The structural model was also examined with indicators such as R2 coefficient of determination, t-coefficients and path coefficients (Beta). The study data were analyzed using SEM and using the Smart PLS3 software package. Results and Discussion: The analysis of the research data showed that six main factors with different impact coefficients would determine the success of transferring the lean technology to the agricultural sector of Iran. Key factors such as technological factors, legal factors, government support, infrastructural factors, human resource training and education, and management skills were found to be influential on the transfer of lean technology in agriculture. Interestingly, the path analysis showed that the interaction of these factors with each other (especially managerial factors and technological factors and human capital) had a double effect on technology transfer. The final research model was confirmed with favorable fit indices, indicating the high efficiency of the model in predicting the success of technology transfer. Also, the study results showed that different regions of the country required different strategies in technology adoption due to differences in the level of development. Conclusion and Suggestions: The study findings indicated that the transfer of lean technology in Iranian agriculture would require a comprehensive and systematic approach. The model proposed in this study, as a comprehensive framework, can help policymakers, managers and farmers in facilitating the technology transfer process. For the effective implementation of this model, it is recommended: 1) Establish a special fund for the development of smart agriculture with the participation of the private and public sectors, 2) Establish a network of international communications and interactions for the transfer of lean technologies, 3) Develop national standards for smart agricultural products, and 4) Develop skill-based training programs in the field of lean technology for farmers and experts. Ultimately, the success of implementing this model requires the cooperation of all stakeholders in the form of an operational plan with specific quantitative and qualitative goals and specific time frames. Proper implementation of these strategies can lead to an average increase in productivity in the Iranian agricultural sector by up to 35 percent in the next five years. فناوری ناب در کشاورزی به ‏عنوان رویکردی نوین و تحول‌آفرین شناخته می‌شود که با بهره‌گیری از فناوری‌های دیجیتال مانند هوش مصنوعی، اینترنت اشیا، رباتیک و کلان‌داده‌ها، زمینه بهبود بهره‌وری و کارآیی را فراهم می‌سازد. هدف پژوهش حاضر شناسایی و تبیین عوامل مؤثر بر انتقال فناوری ناب در بخش کشاورزی ایران بود و به‌منظور تحلیل وضعیت انتقال این فناوری‌ها، از داده‌های گردآوری‌شده در قالب پرسشنامه از 150 نفر از متخصصان و ذی‌نفعان حوزه کشاورزی در استان کرمانشاه شامل دانشجویان دکتری، اعضای هیئت علمی و نیز مدیران و متخصصان شرکت‌های دانش‌بنیان استفاده شد. در بخش اول پرسشنامه، سؤالات مربوط به ویژگی‏‌های فردی پاسخ‏گویان و در بخش دوم، سؤالات تخصصی برای سنجش متغیرهای تحقیق شامل 35 گویه بر اساس مقیاس پنج‌درجه‌ای لیکرت طراحی شده بود، که روایی آن از طریق پانل تخصصی بررسی شد. همچنین، از دو نرم‌افزار SPSS و Smart PLS برای تجزیه‌‏وتحلیل داده‌‏ها استفاده شد. یافته‌‏های پژوهش نشان داد که شش عامل شامل عوامل فناوری، قانونی، حمایت دولت، زیرساخت‌ها، آموزش و تربیت نیروی انسانی و مهارت‌های مدیریتی نقش معنی‌‏دار در انتقال فناوری ناب در کشاورزی دارند. همچنین، تحلیل مسیر مشخص کرد که تعامل میان عوامل مدیریتی، ظرفیت‌های فناورانه و سرمایه انسانی تأثیر تقویتی بر انتقال فناوری دارد. بر اساس نتایج به‌‏دست‌‏آمده، پیشنهاد کاربردی پژوهش حاضر این است که یک برنامه ملی توسعه مهارت‌های فناورانه برای کشاورزان و کارشناسان با همکاری دولت، دانشگاه‌ها و بخش خصوصی طراحی و اجرا شود، برنامه‌ای که بتواند آموزش‌های مهارت‌محور در زمینه فناوری‌های ناب را به‌صورت مستمر و متناسب با نیازهای منطقه‌ای ارائه کند.

http://aead.agri-peri.ac.ir/article_132422_31d39ab9c2bc8d5028fcc4ed34acc28c.pdf

موسسه پژوهش های برنامه ریزی، اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه روستایی اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه 1022-4211 33 4 2026 02 20 The Impact of Meat Price Increases on Household Consumption Patterns in Iran: Elasticity Analysis and Policy Simulation تأثیر افزایش قیمت گوشت بر الگوی مصرف خانوارها در ایران: تحلیل کشش‌ها و شبیه‌سازی سیاستی 132426 10.30490/aead.2026.367567.1708 FA ارسلان بی نیاز استادیار اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران فرحناز کریمی نژاد استادیار اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران Journal Article 2025 11 22 Introduction: Over recent years, food price inflation (particularly, within the protein commodity group) has caused significant shifts in the dietary structure of Iranian households. Meat, as a key component of the national food basket and the primary source of animal protein, accounts for a substantial share of total food expenditure. So, fluctuations in its price have profound implications for both household welfare and food security. This study aimed at analyzing the impact of meat price increases on household consumption patterns in Iran and examining the consumer responses through price, income, and demographic elasticities. Thus, it contributed to a deeper understanding of substitution effects among different types of meat and provided evidence-based insights for food policy formulation in the context of rising prices. Materials and Methods: The study analysis was based on microdata extracted from the Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES) conducted by the Statistical Center of Iran (SCI) in 2024. The dataset included detailed food consumption and socioeconomic information for more than 37,000 rural and urban households across the country. Given that the HIES identifies nearly forty distinct meat items, it was not feasible to estimate demand functions for each product individually. Therefore, these items were aggregated— according to standard national coding and classification— into four major meat-related groups: (1) red meat, (2) poultry, (3) processed meat products, and (4) fish and seafood. The study employed the Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) model to estimate the demand structure and derive uncompensated (Marshallian) price elasticities and income elasticities for each group. In addition, the model incorporated demographic variables such as household size, educational attainment of the household head, and geographical region to capture variations in consumption behavior across different socioeconomic strata. To evaluate potential policy outcomes, two price-increase scenarios (25 percent and 50 percent) were simulated for red meat and poultry— both individually and jointly— allowing for an assessment of consumer substitution patterns and expenditure reallocation under price shocks. Results and Discussion: The empirical findings revealed substantial heterogeneity across meat groups in both price and income elasticities. Red meat exhibited the highest absolute price elasticity and a relatively high-income elasticity, indicating that it is perceived as a luxury or semi-luxury good in household consumption. As prices rise, red meat consumption declines sharply, and a portion of this decline is offset by increased consumption of poultry and processed meat products, which act as substitutes. In contrast, poultry was found to be a necessity good, displaying lower price and income elasticities and thus, more resilient to price changes. Demographic variables were also statistically significant in explaining consumption behavior. Larger households and those with lower income or education levels tended to allocate a higher share of their food budget to cheaper protein sources (particularly, poultry and processed meat), while smaller and higher-income households showed greater preference for red meat and fish. Moreover, regional differences highlighted that households in coastal provinces consumed more fish and seafood compared to inland regions, reflecting accessibility and cultural consumption patterns. Under the 25 percent and 50 percent price-increase scenarios, the simulations demonstrated that a higher shock would lead to a marked reduction in total animal protein intake, especially among urban households. The substitution effects became more pronounced in the 50 percent scenario, where the share of red meat expenditure declined considerably, and poultry and processed meat partially filled the gap. However, these substitutions were insufficient to fully maintain the previous protein intake levels, indicating potential nutritional vulnerability among low-income groups. Conclusion and Suggestions: The study results suggest that uncontrolled increases in meat prices, in the absence of compensatory mechanisms, can exacerbate food insecurity by reducing animal protein consumption and widening nutritional inequality across income groups. Policymakers are therefore encouraged to adopt gradual price adjustment strategies combined with targeted social protection policies. Potential instruments include electronic food coupons for protein products, targeted cash transfers, and the promotion of affordable alternative protein sources such as aquacultural products or plant-based proteins. In summary, this study highlights that the integration of demand elasticity analysis with scenario-based policy simulation provides a powerful tool for assessing the welfare implications of food price policies. Ensuring a balance between economic efficiency and nutritional equity requires evidence-based interventions that account for both market dynamics and household-level heterogeneity in consumption behavior. در سال‌های اخیر، افزایش قیمت مواد غذایی به‌ویژه در گروه کالاهای پروتئینی موجب تغییرات قابل توجه در الگوی مصرف خانوارهای ایرانی شده است. گوشت، به‌عنوان یکی از اجزای اساسی سبد غذایی و منبع اصلی پروتئین حیوانی، سهمی قابل توجه از هزینه‌های خوراکی خانوار را تشکیل می‌دهد و نوسان‏‌های قیمت آن آثار گسترده بر رفاه و امنیت غذایی جامعه دارد. هدف پژوهش حاضر تحلیل آثار افزایش قیمت گوشت بر الگوی مصرف خانوارها در ایران و بررسی واکنش مصرف‌کنندگان در قالب کشش‌های قیمتی و درآمدی و متغیرهای جمعیت‌شناختی بود. داده‌های مورد استفاده از طرح «آمارگیری هزینه- درآمد خانوار» مرکز آمار ایران در سال ۱۴۰۳ استخراج شد و شامل اطلاعات بیش از ۳۷ هزار خانوار شهری و روستایی کشور بود. در مطالعة حاضر، برای برآورد تابع تقاضا، از مدل نظام تقاضای تقریباً ایده‌آل (AIDS) استفاده شد و تحلیل رفتار مصرفی خانوارها برای چهار گروه اصلی گوشت قرمز، گوشت طیور، فرآورده‌های گوشتی، و ماهی‌ها و آبزیان صورت گرفت. نتایج پژوهش نشان داد که کشش‌های قیمتی و درآمدی میان گروه‌های گوشتی تفاوت معنی‏‌دار دارند، به‌گونه‌ای که گوشت قرمز بیشترین کشش قیمتی و درآمدی را داشته و با افزایش قیمت، مصرف آن به‌طور قابل ملاحظه کاهش یافته است، در حالی که گوشت طیور کالایی نسبتاً ضروری با کشش قیمتی و درآمدی پایین‌تر است. همچنین، متغیرهای جمعیت‌شناختی نظیر بعد خانوار، سطح تحصیلات و منطقه جغرافیایی تأثیر معنی‏‌دار بر الگوی مصرف داشتند، به‌گونه‏‌ای که خانوارهای بزرگ‌تر و کم‌درآمد سهم بیشتری از مصرف خود را به گوشت‌های ارزان‌تر اختصاص داده‌اند. در بخش سناریوسازی، دو سناریوی افزایش ۲۵ و ۵۰ درصدی قیمت گوشت قرمز و گوشت طیور، به‌صورت مجزا و هم‌زمان، شبیه‌سازی شد و یافته‌های آن نشان داد که در سناریوی شدیدتر، کاهش مصرف کل پروتئین حیوانی در خانوارهای شهری محسوس بوده و ترکیب سبد غذایی به سمت اقلام کم‌هزینه‌تر تغییر یافته است. بر اساس یافته‌ها، افزایش قیمت گوشت بدون اتخاذ سیاست‌های جبرانی می‌تواند به کاهش مصرف پروتئین و تهدید امنیت غذایی، به‌ویژه در میان دهک‌های پایین درآمدی، منجر شود. بنابراین، توصیه می‌شود که سیاست‌گذاران ضمن اجرای تدریجی اصلاحات قیمتی، از ابزارهایی نظیر «کالابرگ الکترونیکی تغذیه‌ای»، «پرداخت نقدی هدفمند برای اقلام پروتئینی» و «توسعه تولید پروتئین‌های جایگزین ارزان‌تر» برای حفظ تعادل میان کارآیی اقتصادی و عدالت تغذیه‌ای استفاده کنند.

http://aead.agri-peri.ac.ir/article_132426_e5d10d995344f8dab8f7c1286a5ec295.pdf