Agricultural Economics and Development

Agricultural Economics and Development

Economic Vulnerability Originating from Climate Change in Agriculture Sector in the South of Kerman Province of Iran Using Ricardian Model: A Case Study of Wheat

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
navid sedigh 1
Hasan Hashemidaran 2
Mohammad Chalajour 3
1 Corresponding Author and PhD Student in Agricultural Economics, Islamic Azad University, Rudehen Branch, Tehran, Iran
2 Assistant Professor, Faculty of Agriculture, Islamic Azad University, Rudehen Branch, Tehran, Iran
3 Assistant Professor, Faculty of Agriculture, Islamic Azad University, Rudehen Branch, Tehran, Iran.
10.30490/aead.2023.359375.1454
Abstract
Introduction: Climate change is one of the most important challenges of the current century. Due to the increase in the use of fossil fuels, the amount of greenhouse gases has increased, and this has caused global warming and the phenomenon of climate change. One of the effects of the climate change phenomenon is the damage caused in the agricultural sector, and due to the change in the precipitation pattern and the average temperature of the atmosphere, this phenomenon can cause damage to the productions of all kinds of garden and agricultural products that constitute the main food resources of the country.
Methodology: This study aimed at investigating the economic vulnerability caused by climate change in the agricultural sector of the south of Kerman province in Iran as well as examining the effect of these factors on the cultivation of wheat in this area over the period of 1991-2019 in the form of panel data. Eviews 9 software package was used to estimate the desired models and perform related tests. The effect of climatic variables on wheat crop was investigated using the meteorological data of the stations located in the southern cities of Kerman province. In addition, this study used panel (composite) data in the Ricardian model.
Findings and Results: The study results showed that climatic variables had significant and non-linear effects on net income per hectare of wheat cultivation; also, the increase in temperature and decrease in rainfall in the next 100 years would cause a 41 percent decrease in the yield of wheat cultivation in the studied area, and the average annual income of each hectare of wheat cultivation would decrease by 64 million IRI rials and given a constant area under cultivation, 2469 thousand billion IRI rials would be reduced from the rent of the mentioned lands. Therefore, there will be drastic changes in the production and cultivation pattern.
Conclusion: The results of this study and related statistics showed that severe economic vulnerability in this region would affect the farmers and the economy of the region and even the country. Considering the inevitability of global warming, it is necessary to take measures from now on to further investigate the issue, reduce fossil fuel consumption, modify the cultivation patterns, and prevent damages caused by climate change for farmers in the southern region of Kerman province.
Keywords
Economic Vulnerability
Climate Change
South of Kerman Province
Ricardian Method
Agriculture
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