Introduction: According to experts, Iran is the largest producer of rose water in the world, but it has a weak position in the global market for the export of rose essence and its products. The majority of rose production in Iran is consumed domestically as well as internationally, as rose water, fresh and dried rose petals, while the profitability lies in the production and export of rose essence, perfumes, cosmetic and hygiene products. In this study, after calculating market share, market size, import continuity, export price, Herfindahl-Hirschman Index, and export price risk index, target countries were studied and analyzed using K-means clustering based on similarity with these indices. The required data for the research period of 2012-2021 were collected from the Islamic Republic of Iran Customs Administration (IRICA).
Materials and Methods: One of the most important non-hierarchical clustering methods is the K-means method, which is considered as a basic method for many other clustering methods. According to this method, cluster centers are first obtained, which are actually the average points belonging to each cluster. Then, each data point is assigned to a cluster based on the cluster whose center has the smallest distance to that data point. The best clustering is one that maximizes the similarity between the cluster center and all cluster members and minimizes the similarity between cluster centers. In this study, the following variables were used for clustering:
Market Share: According to the IRICA data, it includes those countries that have allocated more than one percent of Iran's exports share to themselves for rose and its products during the studied period (2012-2021).
Market Size: Based on the IRICA data, this index represents the average amount of imports made by selected countries from Iran during the studied period.
Market Growth: The average growth of imports during the studied period is considered as an indicator of market growth.
Continuity of Imports: It is the continuous access to the desired market, and this indicator is measured by calculating the coefficient of variation (CV) of imports to that country.
Market Structure: Market structure refers to the concentration of buyers and sellers, entry conditions, and the degree of homogeneity of goods. Market structure indicates whether the market is monopolistic or competitive, which can be determined by calculating concentration ratios such as the Concentration Ratio (CR) or the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI).
Value of Exports: It is obtained by the ratio of the value of exports (in dollars) to the quantity of exports.
Export Price Risk: The coefficient of variation (CV) of export prices over the years studied is considered as export price risk.
Results and Discussion: During the studied period (2012-2021), Iran exported dried flowers and fresh rose petals to 45 countries around the world. The most important export markets for dried flowers and fresh rose petals during this period included Germany, Pakistan, the United Arab Emirates, Turkey, Vietnam, Kuwait, Iraq, and Spain. Iran exported rose water to approximately 60 countries from 2012 to 2021. The top ten major importers of rose water from Iran were found to be the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Bahrain, Oman, Qatar, Iraq, France, Saudi Arabia, China, and Afghanistan. The destination countries for rose water exports were categorized into five clusters. Similarly, based on the results, the target countries for exports were prioritized in 5 clusters. According to IRICA statistics, Iran exported rose essence to 17 countries worldwide during 2012-2021. The most important export markets for rose essence in terms of market size (average over the period) during the same period included Hong Kong, Australia, China, Germany, France, Canada, Spain, Bulgaria, Austria, and the United Arab Emirates. Germany was the largest importer of rose essence during the mentioned period. Based on the results, destination countries for the export of rose water essence were categorized into four clusters (priorities), with Japan and Canada in the first cluster, Hong Kong and China in the second cluster, Germany in the third cluster as well as with the highest number of countries including France, Russia, Spain, Bulgaria, Austria, and England in the fourth cluster.
Conclusions: Based on the study results, the countries importing Damask Rose and Damask rosewater were grouped into five clusters each based on their similarity to the indicators mentioned. Furthermore, importing countries of rose essence from Iran were placed in four clusters. It is evident that any planning to maintain target markets, reduce export price risk, and sustain income and the export market share of Iran requires attention to consistent policies for the countries in each cluster. It is also worth-mentioning that export priority to target countries from the first cluster should be initiated and then, expanded to subsequent clusters. Finally, based on the research findings, it is recommended that the policy for the development of rose essence exports and related complementary industries be considered by policymakers.