Introduction: The Iranian horticultural sector, a critical element of the national economy, currently confronts profound structural challenges stemming from the pervasive national energy imbalance. This phenomenon, which is characterized by significant and often unpredictable volatility in the supply of critical inputs such as electricity and natural gas, introduces considerable and persistent risk to operational stability. This risk is most acute for energy-intensive production nodes, particularly groundwater pumping for irrigation (a process marked by high operational dependency) and the complex climate control systems vital for high-value greenhouse production. Such instability in energy supply directly constrains the potential for sustained growth in Total Factor Productivity (TFP). Furthermore, this challenging external environment is exacerbated by deep-seated structural rigidities, notably the distortionary effects of heavy volumetric energy subsidies. These subsidies inadvertently suppress the necessary economic incentive for producers to undertake significant capital investments in cost-effective, high-efficiency technologies. This disincentive effect consequently contributes to widespread allocative inefficiency across the sector. Therefore, this study mainly aimed at developing a comprehensive, analytically sound, and prioritized strategic framework for enhancing energy productivity and securing long-term TFP growth within the Iranian horticultural sector, focusing specifically on mitigating the complex, interwoven risks associated with energy supply volatility and climate change-induced stress.
Materials and Methods: This research employed a robust, sequential, three-stage strategic management methodology, grounded in an applied, descriptive-analytical approach utilizing a mixed-method (qualitative-quantitative) design. The statistical population consisted of 21 principal experts and senior specialists from relevant governmental agencies and academia, selected via purposive sampling to ensure specialized domain expertise. Data collection utilized structured interviews and the iterative Delphi technique to achieve expert consensus on factor identification and weighting. The initial phase involved a detailed Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats (SWOT) analysis, which yielded an Internal Factor Evaluation (IFE=2.670) and an External Factor Evaluation (EFE=3.116) score. The calculation placed the sector’s strategic position in the Aggressive (SO) Strategic Quadrant, suggesting a strong potential for leveraging internal strengths to exploit external opportunities. Subsequently, the Quantitative Strategic Planning Matrix (QSPM) was utilized in the final analytical phase to quantitatively prioritize the six overarching strategies developed from the preceding stages against the weighted SWOT factors, resulting in a Total Attractiveness Score (TAS) for each strategy. 
Results and Discussion: The QSPM prioritization provided a clear, evidence-based hierarchy for strategic action, primarily underscoring that structural and economic reforms are a necessary condition for successful technological and infrastructural adoption. The six strategies were analytically ranked based on their TASs: Government Support and Targeted Incentives (TAS=7.020); Optimal Energy Management in Microclimates (TAS=6.724); Farmer Education and Awareness Improvement (TAS=6.620); Renovation of Structures and Facilities (TAS=6.089); Use of Renewable Energy and Energy Storage (TAS=5.930); and Use of Waste-to-Energy Systems (TAS=5.539). The assignment of the highest priority (Rank 1) to the economic-institutional strategy, Government Support and Targeted Incentives, is the most significant finding, reinforcing the hypothesis that allocative inefficiency (W3) stemming from subsidized energy prices constitutes the primary structural impediment to TFP growth. This finding suggests a policy transition is warranted: moving away from volumetric consumption subsidies toward targeted investment incentives to restore rational economic motivation. Furthermore, the second and third prioritized strategies focus on crucial complementary actions. Optimal Energy Management in Microclimates (Rank 2) addresses the need to enhance Technical Efficiency in high-risk areas— greenhouses— through the integration of passive and active efficiency technologies. Lastly, Farmer Education and Awareness Improvement (Rank 3) is identified as the vital human capital development component, essential for ensuring that financial and technological investments are effectively utilized by directly mitigating the pervasive poor consumption culture (W1) and technical unawareness (W2) that could otherwise undermine long-term TFP gains. The ranking of the capital-intensive strategies (Ranks 4 and 5) emphasizes that the successful and economically viable implementation of these large-scale investments is highly contingent upon the prior or simultaneous implementation of the higher-ranked economic and behavioral reforms.
Conclusions and Policy Recommendations: The study concluded that the transition of the horticultural sector away from the energy imbalance crisis would require a deliberate, coordinated, and three-pronged program: Economic Reforms (to correct price signals and revitalize incentives), Human Capital Development (to improve behavior and technical skill), and Targeted Investment in Efficient Technologies (to modernize vulnerable infrastructure). This integrated approach is critical for building sectoral resilience and sustaining TFP growth. Based on the strategic priorities identified in this research, a comprehensive set of policy recommendations is proposed, centered on the modernization of irrigation pumps with solar panels as a critical measure to reduce grid dependency and mitigate the water-energy nexus crisis. To ensure a successful transition, the gradual phasing out of volumetric energy subsidies must be immediately coupled with low-interest, long-term financing and fiscal incentives, such as tax exemptions and reduced customs duties on efficiency-enhancing agricultural technologies. Furthermore, it is recommended that the Ministry of Energy establish guaranteed feed-in tariffs for surplus electricity to improve investment viability. To ensure technical efficiency, government aid and licensing should be contingent upon mandatory training in energy and water management. Finally, the establishment of a permanent Water-Energy-Agriculture Working Group is essential to streamline bureaucratic processes, such as PV permitting, and to foster the cross-sectoral coordination necessary for the harmonized implementation of national strategies.