Simulation of Drought Consequences in the Farming Subsector in Whole Country and Different Provinces: Construction and Application of Iran ORANI-G Model

One way to manage drought is simulation of the effects of this phenomenon on economic variables such as production and employment. The aim of this paper was short run simulation of the impacts of the 2007-8 drought in the farming subsector in framework of the ORANI-G model, a multi regional computable general equilibrium model. For this purpose, the effects of three scenarios of decreasing available water in this subsector on GDP, GRP, aggregate employment and regional employment were simulated. To do this research, the 2006 input-output table and regional accounts were been used.
The results showed that GDP, GRP and aggregate employment decrease in all scenarios. In addition, regional employments decrease in all provinces except in two provinces, Hamadan and Kerman. Also, the effects of above scenarios on value added variable in aggregated sectors showed that the most loss pertain to agricultural sector. Therefore, management of this phenomenon can lower its pernicious consequences in economy of Iran, especially in rural regions. Moreover, regional results can give noticeable information to policymakers for more suitable specific- region planning.