Survey of Price Behavior in Iran Broiler Market

In this paper, Auto-Regressive Distribution Lag Model is used to investigate the short and long run relationships between soybean meal, corn, oneday old chick and chicken meat prices. The variables of the study are soybean meal, corn, day-old chick and chicken meat monthly prices. The data were collected for period of 2001-2010. According to the results, long- run elasticities of price between chicken meat and soybean, chicken meat and corn and chicken meat and day-old chick are determined about 0.34, 0.27 and 0.29 percent respectively. It shows that chicken meat price is more sensitive to the long run changes in soybean meal prices. Furthermore, the results show that any price shock induced by inputs market causes the chicken meat price to get out of equilibrium and it adjusts by 49 percent in one month to the long-run equilibrium.Therefore it takes more than approximately two months to eliminate the disequilibrium. Policymakers must prevent price shocks that causes price fluctuations and disequilibrium in broiler market. Therefore, making a database is suggested for immediate regulatory responses to reduce disequilibrium term. Also, Price adjustment policy for day-old chicks seems more necessary.

JEL Classification: E31, Q12, C22

Keywords:
Chicken Meat, Day-Old Chick, Soybean Meal, Corn, Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag, Error Correction Model