Survey of the Effect of Macroeconomics Variables Fluctuation on Productivity Growth of Iran Agriculture Sector

One of the main subjects in the economic development is increasing the productivity which the effective factors on the increasing of productivity level must be determined for its increasing. Therefore, the purpose of this study is survey of the long run and short run relationship between some main economic variables and productivity of agriculture sector during 1978-2010 using ARDL model. According to the results, real value of total export, change in international reserves, share of oil income in GDP and real exchange rate have a positive effect and inflation rate and external debt have a negative effect on productivity growth of agriculture sector in long run. Also, inflation rate, share of oil income in GDP and real exchange rate have a significant effect on productivity growth of agriculture sector in short run. The sign of variables in short run estimation is similar to long run. The result of CUSUM test was shown the constancy of model coefficients.

JEL Classification: E23

Keywords:
Productivity, Agriculture, Iran, ARDL, Macroeconomics Variables