Effects of CO2 Emissions on Crop Pattern in Hamedan-Bahar Plain

In recent decades, increase in greenhouse gases, especially carbon dioxide (CO2), has caused the global warming as an undesirable phenomenon. On the other, increase carbon dioxide can change and improve yield of agricultural crops through facilitation in photosynthesis and transpiration. So assess the final effect of increasing this gas in the environment of agricultural crops production has been a controversial subject among agriculture and environment researchers. With this explanation of the study, the level of carbon dioxide emissions on the crops of Hamedan-Bahar plain predicted in the coming decades than 2012-2013 year. For this purpose, initially, the sensitivity of crop yields in Hamedan-Bahar plain than carbon dioxide emissions were estimated by using non-parametric approach based the nearest neighbor method (KNN). In the next step, the conditions of crop pattern were simulated by using of mathematical programming approach and PMP model, and then the effects of CO2 emissions on crop pattern were investigated in the several scenarios. The results indicated that increase in CO2 emissions has positive effects on crop pattern in the short run horizon 2020, but this trend will change in the long run. However, a balanced use of fossil and non-fossil fuels and the use of global approaches, achieves the highest gross margin will be in the coming years.

JEL Classification: C02, C45, Q54, R14

Keywords:
Global Warming, KNN Algorithm, Crop Yields, Agriculture Value-Added