Prioritizing the Production of Selected Agricultural Products with the Goal of Providing the Demand at Development Vision Horizon (2025)

Present study with the goal of providing food security and self – sufficiency in National Vision Plan, has forecasted demand of selected agricultural products with the usage of Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model at the vision horizon (2025). Results showed that food demand would increase desirable at the basis of food security and consumption pattern reformation provided that vision plan goals had been realized. So that the consumption pattern of Iranian society, under the ideal and desirable alternatives, due to increasing income and decreasing inflation rate, would transform into further increase of protein such as all kinds of meats and eggs and lower consumption of bread. According to the findings, the rank of productions base on the demand in vision horizon (2025) will meat, egg, rice, chicken, wheat and tea respectively.


JEL Classification: C13, C53, Q11

Keywords:
Demand, Agricultural Products, Forecasting, Prioritizing, National Vision Plan