اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه

اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه

تحلیل فضایی اثر انحراف نرخ ارز بر تجارت محصول شکر در ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان
مجید شهریاری 1
ماشاا.. سالارپور 2
محمود احمدپور 3
وحید دهباشی 4
علیرضا کیخا 5
1 دانشجوی دکتری، گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی گرایش بازاریابی، دانشگاه زابل، زابل، ایران
2 استادیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه زابل، زابل، ایران
3 دانشیار، گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی گرایش مدیریت تولید ، دانشگاه زابل، زابل، ایران
4 استادیار، گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی گرایش اقتصاد سنجی، دانشگاه زابل، زابل، ایران
5 استادیار، گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی گرایش اقتصاد نظری ، دانشگاه زابل، زابل، ایران
10.30490/aead.2025.367368.1652
چکیده
تجارت خارجی همواره به ‏عنوان یکی از عناصر کلیدی در اقتصاد هر کشور عمل می‌کند و نقش مهمی در توسعه اقتصادی، افزایش اشتغال و ارتقای سطح رفاه اجتماعی دارد. واردات کالا نیز یکی از اجزای اساسی این فرآیند به ‏شمار می‌آید. در این زمینه، نرخ ارز نیز به‏ عنوان یک عامل کلیدی در تعیین قیمت کالاها و خدمات در بازارهای جهانی، تأثیری به‏ سزا بر تجارت خارجی دارد. علاوه بر این، وابستگی صنعت مواد غذایی و کشاورزی به نرخ ارز از مسائل مهم و حیاتی در اقتصاد ایران محسوب می‌شود. بنابراین، هدف اصلی تحقیق حاضر بررسی تأثیر فضایی انحراف نرخ ارز بر واردات شکر، به‏ عنوان یکی از کالاهای راهبردی کشور، در بازه زمانی 2010 تا 2023 بود و برای دستیابی به اهداف مطالعه، از روش پانل فضایی استفاده شد. نتایج مطالعه نشان داد که متغیرهای شاخص قیمت­‌های نسبی واردات، انحراف نرخ ارز حقیقی، درآمدهای نفتی و آزادسازی تجاری بر مقدار واردات محصول شکر تأثیرگذارند. علاوه بر این، بر اساس نتایج به ‏دست‏ آمده، اگر در داخل، انحراف نرخ ارز و سرریزهای آن نوسانی به اندازه یک درصد داشته باشد، آنگاه میزان تغییر آن در داخل باکشش­‌تر از تغییرات در کشورهای مجاور است. از این‌‏رو، باید برنامه‏‌ها و سیاست­‌های کشور به ‏سوی ارتقای کیفیت تنظیم مقررات بازار ارز، پاسخ‏گویی دولت در قبال عملکرد خود و تأمین ثبات بازار ارز معطوف شود.
کلیدواژه‌ها
نرخ ارز حقیقی
واردات شکر
امنیت غذایی
مدل پانل فضایی

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله English

Spatial Analysis of the Impact of Exchange Rate Deviations on Sugar Trade in Iran

نویسندگان English

Majid SHAHRIARI 1
Mashallah Salarpour 2
mahmood ahmadpour 3
vahid dehbashi 4
alireza keikha 5
1 PhD Student, Department of Agricultural Economics, Marketing Orientation, University of Zabol, Zabol, Iran
2 Assistant Professor of Agricultural Economics , Zabol University, Zabol, Iran
3 Associate Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics, Production management Orientation, University of Zabol, Zabol, Iran
4 Assistant Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics, Econometrics Orientation, University of Zabol, Zabol, Iran
5 Assistant Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics, Theoretical economics Orientation, University of Zabol, Zabol, Iran
چکیده English

Introduction: A decline in the value of the national currency can enhance the competitiveness of agricultural product exports in global markets. This situation may lead to an increase in demand for agricultural products, resulting in boosting agricultural value added. Furthermore, if the domestic currency depreciates, the costs associated with imported food items may rise. This increase in costs can reduce households’ purchasing power and impact their consumption habits. Overall, fluctuations in the value of the national currency not only affect exports and imports but can also lead to fundamental changes in consumer behavior and the economic structure of the country. If the real exchange rate is appropriately adjusted and aligned with a balanced trajectory, it can yield positive effects on the economy. Conversely, deviations and severe fluctuations in the exchange rate may have detrimental impacts on economic performance. Economists generally agree that the stabilization of the real exchange rate at an inappropriate level and its deviation from a balanced trajectory can significantly reduce national welfare by adversely affecting macroeconomic performance. Sugar occupies a vital position as a source of energy within the basket of essential and strategic goods in the country. Studies indicate that the direct and indirect consumption of sugar meets approximately 8-10 percent of the energy needs of the Iranian population.
Materials and Methods: In the present study, a method based on the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) theory was employed to estimate exchange rate deviation. This method yielded the deviation index as follows: After estimating the exchange rate deviation using spatial panel models, a spatial analysis of the impact of exchange rate deviation on the trade of sugar in Iran’s agricultural sector was conducted. Therefore, since sugar is considered as an imported product, the analysis initially focused on the import model. The import model of this research was introduced based on studies conducted both domestically and internationally, along with existing theoretical discussions, utilizing the study by Fidan (2006) as following equation:


In which Mit is import quantity index of agricultural products, PMIT is relative price index, ERERit is real exchange rate deviation, OILit is oil revenues, Git is Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and OPENit is trade liberalization. In this research, to examine the effects of exchange rate deviation and other influential macroeconomic variables on trading partner countries, an effort was made to utilize modern panel data models (considering their advantages over other econometric and time series models) instead of classical models. So, models such as spatial panel models, Panel ARDL, Panel VAR, and Panel VECM were employed. 
Results and Discussion: As shown by the study results, the null hypothesis of the cross-sectional correlation test indicated the presence of a unit root, which was not accepted. Therefore, there was no need for stationarity and spatial correlation tests; in addition, at all significance levels, the variables indicated that the null hypothesis was not accepted, and the alternative hypothesis, which stated that there was no unit root, was confirmed. Therefore, this test demonstrated the presence of stationarity with spatial correlation. Also, considering the significance level in the estimated model with fixed effects in this study, at all significance levels, the variables of relative import price index, real exchange rate deviation, oil revenues, and trade liberalization significantly affected the amount of sugar imports. However, the significance of the variables based on the significance level in the spatial model was debatable, but the direct and indirect effects could still provide insights beyond the significance level. The presence of positive and negative signs next to the numbers indicated the direction of fluctuations. Considering the direct and indirect effects of exchange rate deviation, the exchange rate deviation and its spillover suggested that on average, if this variable fluctuated by one percent, the change within the country would be approximately 0.10 percent in a direct and negative direction, while in the neighboring country, it would change in the opposite direction by approximately 0.025 percent. As a result, an instability of 0.12 percent would negatively impact sugar imports.
Conclusion and Suggestions: This study contributes to the existing literature by providing a comprehensive analysis of exchange rate fluctuations in trade and food security in Iran. Furthermore, these findings emphasize the necessity of a balanced approach to exchange rate policies that considers the specific economic conditions and challenges of the country. Ensuring consistency with other economic policies in Iran’s economy is also crucial, as experience and reality show that the exchange rate is not the only solution. Future research could explore the potential impacts of alternative exchange rate policies and identify specific measures to enhance agricultural trade flow, improve food security, and foster economic growth in Iran. On the other hand, countries with similar economies, considering the implementation of exchange rate liberalization policies, should establish comprehensive support programs and social protection measures before initiating these policies. Such actions are essential to protect low-income households from the potential negative consequences of these policies

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Real Exchange Rate
Sugar Imports
Food Security
Spatial Panel Model
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