Introduction: Since the onset of COVID-19, individuals worldwide have been affected, altering consumer behaviors and preferences in food selection and consumption due to economic and social disruptions caused by this virus. The virus has significantly affected food systems globally. This includes disruptions in food security, loss of livelihoods and income, increased inequalities, and inflexible prices. The closure of restaurants and food-related businesses has led to a sharp decline in demand for perishable foods such as dairy, fresh fruits, and chocolates, resulting in decreased meat value. Throughout human history, meat and meat-based products originated from cattle, poultry, or fish have been the primary food source for people. These products, rich in high protein levels, vitamins, and minerals, play a crucial role in human diets. Therefore, consuming meat as an essential dietary component is frequently recommended for consumers. When included in a healthy diet, the meat products significantly contribute to a better and healthier life. Many critical parameters, from economic to social and psychological well-being, have been affected by this pandemic. Iran, too, has been influenced by this disease and its consequences in producing and consuming various food items. This has led to changes in Iranian consumer preferences and behaviors. This study aimed at examining the influential factors on changes in the share of red meat expenses during the COVID-19 pandemic period and the pattern of red meat consumption in Tehran city.
Materials and Methods: Given the significance and necessity of the red meat consumption in household dietary patterns, as well as assessing the factors affecting the change in the share of expenses for this product during the pandemic, using five options including: 1) "Has significantly decreased", 2) "Has decreased", 3) "Has not changed", 4) "Has increased", and 5) "Has significantly increased", an examination was conducted. Since respondents had more than two options for selection and a sequential nature existed among the categories, the Ordered Logit Model (OLM) was used as the most efficient model. This model examines the impact of explanatory variables on the amount of red meat purchased. In addition, the effect of each variable on the likelihood of households falling into one of the five stated groups was considered. The statistical population of the study consisted of families residing in Tehran city. The required information was gathered by completing questionnaires online and distributing them via the internet platform in 2021-2022. The sample size, determined using the Cochran formula, was 384. However, 400 questionnaires were completed and examined to increase accuracy and reduce errors. According to objectives of the study, packages of software such as STATA 17 and SPSS 26 were utilized to assess and measure the factors affecting the share of expenses on the red meat during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Results and Discussion: Based on the estimations of OLM, the final effect of freshness and safety of food items indicated that the probability of consumers considering this factor highly critical being included in the last group had increased by 0.0009 units. Conversely, the consumers who did not prioritize freshness and safety of food had decreased their likelihood of being placed in the first group by 0.004 units. Emphasizing easy access to stores or markets led to a greater probability of these individuals being placed in the groups 3 to 5 and a decreased probability of placement in the groups 1 and 2. The final effects of the lower prices variable suggested that the consumers prioritizing lower and more affordable prices had a 0.0007-unit increased likelihood of being in the last group. In contrast, their probability of being in the first group was reduced by 0.003 units. Additionally, as the share of expenses allocated to poultry and meat in the household food basket increased, the probability of these households being in the first and second groups decreased by 0.04 and 0.36 units, respectively. Meanwhile, the likelihood of these households being in the groups 3 to 5 increased by 0.27, 0.11, and 0.01 units, respectively. The final effect of the share of expenses on milk and dairy products during the COVID-19 pandemic period also indicated that as the share of expenses allocated to these products in the household food basket increased, the probability of these households being in the first and second groups decreased by 0.004 and 0.038 units respectively. Meanwhile, the likelihood of these households being in the groups 3 to 5 increased by 0.02, 0.01, and 0.001 units, respectively.
Conclusion and Suggestions: The descriptive statistical results indicated that approximately 57 percent of respondents did not change their share of expenses on the red meat during the COVID-19 pandemic period. However, about 28 and 14 percent of individuals believed that their red meat expenses had decreased and increased, respectively. The income variable did not show a significant effect in the OLM on the dependent variable. In the final analysis, the results demonstrated that higher-income families increased the red meat expenses during the pandemic. Based on the OLM results, as educational levels increase, there is a noticeable decrease in the inclination towards purchasing and consuming the red meat during the COVID-19 pandemic period. Additionally, the variables such as responsibility for grocery shopping and preference for dining out significantly and negatively affected the dependent variable. Moreover, the factors related to easy access to markets or stores significantly and positively impacted the increase in the share of expenses on the red meat, chicken, milk, and their sub-products during the COVID-19 pandemic period. To maintain the red meat’s position in dietary habits during this period, it is recommended to develop online platforms, implement standardized labeling, and adopt appropriate packaging aligned with meat quality. In addition, for the individuals who refrain from consuming meat for reasons other than economic factors, designing appealing stands in grocery stores and implementing effective advertising campaigns for alternative meat products during the COVID-19 pandemic period are also suggested.