Document Type : Original Article
Authors
1
PhD. Student, Department of Economics, Abarkouh Branch, Islamic Azad University, Abarkouh, Iran
2
Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Yazd Branch, Islamic Azad University, Yazd, Iran
10.30490/aead.2024.361093.1497
Abstract
The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of macroeconomic variables on food inflation in Iran. To accomplish this goal, seasonal data from 1380 to 1399 and the Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregression (TVP-VAR) model with variable coefficients over time were utilized. The TVP-VAR model estimates show that the effect of macroeconomic variables on food inflation changes over time. According to these findings, economic growth rate has a negative impact on food inflation, which rises over time. Food inflation, on the other hand, has responded positively to a standard deviation shock in the growth rate of the money supply and interest rates, and this effect has been long-lasting. The findings also suggest that as the exchange rate rises, so does food inflation, which becomes more severe over time. Increased investment has also reduced food inflation and the negative impact has become greater over time. The crucial finding is that an increase in food inflation at a given point in time has a sustained, amplifying effect on food inflation in subsequent periods. Therefore, it is recommended that improvements be made to the infrastructure for food product production, including technological infrastructure in the agricultural sector, as well as storage and processing industries, in order to prevent increases in food inflation and its dynamic, persistent effects on food security and public health.
Main Subjects
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