Estimation of drought loss on rainfed wheat production in Golestan province

  Considering the importance of wheat production in sustaining food security and necessity of information about drought impact on yield for the purpose of drought management, this research has estimated a bio-economy function using a 90 sample of rainfed wheat farm and data simulation in Golestan province to estimate the yield reduction and economic drought loss. The results showed that the yield will decrease (130 Kg per hectare) through one percent reduction in soil wetness. Totally, the drought loss resulted from yield diminishing in rainfed lands evaluated as 312000 Rials per hectare and 65 Milliard Rials throughout province. Finally, establishment of drought research center and economic watchdog with the aim of simulation of drought impacts on agricultural sector along side implementation of low input (water) use production pattern in order to decrease drought impacts is recommended.   JEL Classification : Q51, Q54, D51