بررسی نقش تغییر ترکیب صادرات در رشد تولیدات کشاورزی: تحلیلی در چارچوب الگوی داده- ستانده

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکدة اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی، پردیس کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه تهران

2 دانش‏ آموختة کارشناسی ارشد اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکدة اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی، پردیس کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه تهران

3 استاد گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکدة اقتصاد و توسعة کشاورزی، پردیس کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه تهران، کرج

چکیده

در بین منابع رشد تولید، صادرات جزئی مهم تلقی می ­شود که از سیاست‏ های دولت به ‏شدت تأثیر می ­پذیرد. از این‏ رو، هدف اصلی مطالعة حاضر بررسی اثر تغییر ترکیب صادرات کالاهای مختلف در طول زمان بر رشد تولیدات­ کشاورزی بود. بدین منظور، با استفاده از روش تحلیل «تجزیه ساختاری»، ابتدا رشد تولید به چهار عامل اصلی اثر تغییر در تقاضای نهایی داخلی، اثر تغییر در صادرات، اثر تغییر فناوری و اثر جایگزینی واردات تجزیه شد؛ سپس، اثر تغییر در صادرات نیز مورد تجزیه ­های بعدی قرار گرفت تا اثر تغییر در ترکیب آن بر رشد تولید با جزئیات بیشتری معین شود. بدین منظور، از جداول داده- ستانده سال‏های 1370 و 1380 با تبدیل آنها به قیمت ثابت 1376 استفاده شد. براساس نتایج به ‏دست ‏آمده، تغییر در صادرات اثری مثبت بر رشد تولید محصولات همه زیربخش ‏های کشاورزی به ‏جز محصولات دامی و طیور داشته است. نتایج تجزیه این اثر نشان داد که رشد تولید محصولات زراعی و باغی و نیز ماهی و سایر آبزیان از افزایش صادرات محصولات خود این زیربخش‏ ها بیشتر تأثیر پذیرفته، در حالی که در زیربخش دام و طیور، اثر منفی کاهش صادرات محصولات غذایی و آشامیدنی به کاهش رشد تولید این زیربخش انجامیده است. از این‏رو، برای افزایش تولید محصولات کشاورزی، علاوه بر اهمیت افزایش صادرات محصولات خام زیربخش‏های کشاورزی، می‏توان سرمایه ‏گذاری در توسعه صنایع غذایی برای فرآوری محصولات خام غذایی با کیفیت بالا و قابلیت رقابت در بازارهای جهانی را یک عامل عمدة تحریک‏ کنندة رشد تولیدات خام کشاورزی محسوب کرد.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Investigating the Role of Changes in Export Composition in the Growth of Agricultural Products: Analysis within an Input-Output Framework

نویسندگان [English]

  • V. Ansari 1
  • S. Molavi 2
  • S. S. Hosseini 3
1 Department of agricultural economics, Faculty of Economics and Agricultural Development, University of Tehran, Iran.
2 MSc. Graduate in Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Economics and Agricultural Development, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran
3 Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Economics and Agricultural Development, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran.
چکیده [English]

Among the sources of production growth, export is the major component strongly influenced by government policies. This study aimed mainly at investigating the effect of export composition change (ie the commodities’ export share over times) on the growth of agricultural production using the structural decomposition analysis method. For this purpose, firstly, the growth of production was decomposed into four main factors including the effect of change in domestic final demand, the effect of change in exports, the effect of technology change and the effect of import substitution. Then, the effects of change in exports were also subjected to further decomposition to determine the effect of the export composition change on production growth in more details. This operation was performed using input-output tables of 1991 and 2001 which were deflated. According to the results, the change in exports had a positive effect on the production growth of all the agricultural sub-sectors, except for livestock and poultry products. In addition, decomposing the effect of exports showed that the growth of crops, horticulture, fish and other aquaculture products was mostly influenced by increasing their own exports. However, in the case of livestock and poultry sector, the negative effect of decline in exports of food products and beverages caused to reduce the growth of this sector. These results suggested that to increase the agricultural production, in addition to the importance of an increase in the exports of agricultural raw materials, investment in the development of food industry to process high-quality products characterized by competitiveness in the world markets might be a major driver of growth in the agricultural raw products.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • export
  • Sources of Growth
  • structural decomposition analysis
  • Input-Output Tables
  • agricultural sector
  • Iran
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