بررسی تأثیر سیاست توسعه سرمایه ‏گذاری بر اشتغال در بخش کشاورزی با استفاده از رهیافت ماتریس حسابداری اجتماعی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانش‏آموختة کارشناسی ارشد اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان، کرمان، ایران.

2 استادیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان، کرمان، ایران.

3 استاد گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان، کرمان، ایران

4 استادیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان، کرمان، ایران

چکیده

سرمایه‏ گذاری در بخش کشاورزی موجب افزایش تولید و اشتغال در این بخش می ‏شود و با توجه به پیوندهای پسین و پیشین این بخش با سایر بخش‌ها، تولید و اشتغال را در سایر بخش‏ های اقتصادی نیز ارتقا می ‏دهد. بر این اساس، در مطالعه حاضر، تأثیر سیاست توسعه سرمایه‏ گذاری در بخش کشاورزی بر اشتغال بخش ‏های مختلف اقتصادی با استفاده از رهیافت ماتریس حسابداری اجتماعی (SAM) در سال 1390 بررسی شد. نتایج مربوط به آثار توسعه سرمایه ‏گذاری در بخش کشاورزی بر میزان اشتغال‏زایی بخش‏ های مختلف اقتصادی در قالب چهار سناریو (افزایش پنج، ده، پانزده و بیست درصدی سرمایه ‏گذاری در بخش کشاورزی) نشان داد که سطح اشتغال کل اقتصاد بر اساس این سناریوها، به ‏ترتیب، 32/2 ، 63/4 ، 95/6 و 27/9 درصد افزایش یافته و همچنین، کل اشتغال ایجادشده ناشی از هر سناریو بیشتر در بخش‏ های ساختمان، کشاورزی و خدمات تمرکز داشته است. از این ‏رو، جهت ‌دهی برنامه ‏های اشتغال‏زایی به ‌سمت بخش‌‏های یادشده می ‏تواند در افزایش اشتغال کشور مؤثر باشد. افزون بر این، نتایج مطالعه نشان داد که اثرات اشتغال‏زایی در کل اقتصاد (27/9 درصد افزایش) و در هر کدام از بخش ‏های اقتصادی در اثر اجرای سناریوی افزایش بیست درصدی سرمایه ‏گذاری در بخش کشاورزی بیش از سایر سناریوها بوده و همچنین، در بین بخش‏ های مختلف اقتصادی، بخش‌ کشاورزی دارای بیشترین ضریب فزاینده اشتغال است(00806/0 نفر- شغل)؛ و در نتیجه، این بخش نیازمند کمترین میزان سرمایه ‏گذاری برای ایجاد یک واحد اشتغال بوده و دارای تأثیر مثبت و غیرقابل انکار بر میزان اشتغال‏زایی در بخش‏ های مختلف اقتصادی است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Investigating the Impact of Investment Development Policy on Employment in Agriculture Based on Social Accounting Matrix Approach

نویسندگان [English]

  • parnian Zand 1
  • Hamidreza Mirzaie 2
  • Hosein Mehrabi 3
  • Sedigheh Nabieian 4
1 Graduate in Agricultural Economics, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, Kerman, Iran
2 Assistant Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, Kerman, Iran.
3 Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, Kerman, Iran
4 Assistant Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, Kerman, Iran
چکیده [English]

Accordingly in this study, the effect of investment development policy in agricultural sector on employment has been investigated using social accounting matrix 2011. Results in 4 scenarios (increase of five, ten, fifteen and twenty percent investing in agriculture) show that, the employment of the whole economy increased by 2,32 , 4,63 , 6,95 , 9,27 percent in each of the above scenarios. In addition total employment resulting from each of the above scenarios mainly concentrated on building, agriculture and services. Therefore, it is necessary to pay special attention to the above mentioned sectors in the employment plans. It can also be said that, the effects of job creation on the economy as a whole (9.27% increase) and in each economic sector, due to the implementation of the last scenario, has been more in agriculture than in other sectors. The study of employment multipliers also shows that agricultural sector has the highest employment multiplier (0.008 people - jobs) among different sectors of the economy and as a result this sector requires the least amount of capital to create a unit of employment.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • "Capital stock"
  • "job creation"
  • " social accounting matrix"

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