تعیین الگوی بهینه‌ کشت محصولات کشاورزی در شهرستان ملاثانی: کاربرد مدل بهینه‌سازی چندهدفه استوار

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشیار اقتصاد کشاورزی، گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی خوزستان، ملاثانی، اهواز، ایران

2 استادیار اقتصاد کشاورزی، گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی خوزستان، ملاثانی، اهواز، ایران

3 دانش‏ اموختة کارشناسی ارشد اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه زابل، زابل، ایران

چکیده

در مطالعه حاضر، برای تعیین الگوی بهینه کشت اراضی شهرستان ملاثانی واقع در استان خوزستان، از مدل برنامه‌ریزی چندهدفه خطی شامل اهداف اقتصادی، اجتماعی و زیست‌محیطی با در نظر گرفتن عدم اطمینان به ‏صورت مجزا و توأم، در دو مرحله جداگانه، استفاده شد. در مرحله اول مطالعه، از عدم اطمینان موجود در داده‌ها چشم‌پوشی شد، اما در مرحله دوم، با لحاظ کردن این ویژگی، بررسی نتایج هر کدام از آنها جداگانه صورت گرفت. پس از گردآوری داده‌های پژوهش از ارگان‌های دولتی برای سال زراعی 96-1395، مدل‌های مورد نظر در نرم‏افزار GAMS کدگذاری شدند. طبق نتایج مرحله اول، افزایش سطح زیر کشت جو از چهار هزار هکتار به 74/5 هزار هکتار (55/43 درصد) و سبزیجات از صی‏صد هکتار به 410 هکتار (38/37 درصد) و همچنین، کاهش سطح زیر کشت کلزا در الگوی کشت چندهدفه از پانصد به 120 هکتار (34/75 درصد) و کاهش سطح زیر کشت گندم نیز 43/12 درصد ارزیابی شد. نتایج مرحله دوم حاکی از وجود یک رابطه متقابل بین منافع حاصل از الگوی کشت بهینه و سطح محافظت از آن در مقابل داده‌های نامطمئن بود، به ‏گونه ‏ای که با افزایش سطح انحراف از محدودیت از ده تا پنجاه درصد، مقدار سود ناخالص 5/2 درصد کاهش می‌یابد. نتایج پژوهش حاضر می‌تواند به تصمیم‌گیرندگان بخش کشاورزی در دستیابی به هدف کسب بیشترین سود (که به‏طور متوسط، پنج درصد بیشتر از الگوی کشت فعلی برآورد شده است)، با در نظر گرفتن چند هدف متفاوت کمک کرده، از هدررفت منابع کمیاب و باارزش جلوگیری کند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Determining the Optimal Cropping Pattern of Agricultural Crops in Mollasani Coumty of Iran: Application of Robust Multi-Objective Optimization Model

نویسندگان [English]

  • Abbas Abdeshahi 1
  • M. Mardani Najafabadi 2
  • Monireh Zeinali 3
1 Associate Professor of Agricultural Economics, Department of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University of Khuzestan, Mollasani, Ahvaz, Iran
2 Assistant Professor of Agricultural Economics, Department of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University of Khuzestan, Mollasani, Ahvaz, Iran
3 MSc Graduate in Agricultural Economics, University of Zabol, Zabol, Iran
چکیده [English]

In this study to determine optimum crop pattern of the county of Molasani, linear multi-objective planning model include economic, social and environmental objectives has been used in two phases. In the first phase of the study, the uncertainty in the data is ignored, but in the second phase, the mentioned feature is included and the results of each of them are discussed separately. Necessary data were collected from government agencies for the 2014-15 crop year and the models were coded in GAMS software. According to the results in the first phase, barely acreage increased from 4 to 5.74 thousand hectares (43.55 percent) and vegetables acreage increased from 300 to 410 hectares (37.38 percent). Also, in this phase rapeseed acreage decreased from 500 to 120 hectares (75.34 percent) and wheat acreage decreased by 12.43 percent. In the second phase of the study, it was found that there is a mutual relationship between the benefits of the optimal cropping pattern and the level of protection against uncertain data; such that by increasing the level of deviation from constraint from 10% to 50%, the gross profit decreases by 2.5%. The results can help agricultural decision makers achieve the goal of maximizing profit, averaging 5% more than the current cropping pattern, by considering several different goals and avoiding wastage of scarce and valuable resources.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Multi-Objective Programming
  • Uncertainty
  • Cropping Pattern
  • Molasani

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