بررسی تأثیر سیاست‌های خرید و قیمت تضمینی بر سطح زیر کشت و تولید محصول گندم

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه پیام نور، کرج، ایران

2 استادیار اقتصاد کشاورزی و عضو هیئت علمی مؤسسة پژوهش‌های برنامه‌ریزی، اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعة روستایی (APERDRI)، تهران، ایران

3 دانشیار مهندسی منابع طبیعی و عضو هیئت علمی دانشگاه پیام نور، کرج، ایران.

4 استادیار مهندسی منابع طبیعی و عضو هیئت علمی دانشگاه پیام نور، کرج، ایران

چکیده

بخش کشاورزی در تأمین امنیت غذایی، رشد اقتصادی، ایجاد اشتغال و تولید ناخالص ملی نقش مهمی دارد. از این‏رو، افزایش تولید محصول مهمی چون گندم نیز بهبود امنیت غذایی را در پی دارد. در تحقیق حاضر، اثرات سیاست‌های حمایتی خرید و قیمت تضمینی بر سطح زیر کشت و تولید محصول گندم طی سال‌های زراعی 96-1369 بررسی شد. برای الگوسازی روابط میان متغیرها، از الگوی تعدیل جزئی نرلاو و برای بررسی روابط میان متغیرها و آزمون فرضیه‌ها، از الگوی خودتوضیح با وقفه‌های گسترده (ARDL)، استفاده شد. نتایج نشان داد که خرید و قیمت تضمینی سال‌ گذشته اثر مثبت و معنی‌دار بر سطح زیر کشت و تولید گندم داشته و همچنین، در برخی سال‌ها، افزایش قیمت تضمینی گندم از نرخ تورم پایین‌تر بوده است. سرانجام، در تعیین قیمت تضمینی، توجه به رشد تورم پیشنهاد می‌شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Study the Impact of Guaranteed Price and Guaranteed Purchase policies on Cultivation Area and Production of Wheat

نویسندگان [English]

  • Baharak Roustaei 1
  • mahdi kazemnejad 2
  • Mina Rabiei 3
  • S.Z. Hosseini 4
1 MSc Student in Agricultural Economics, Payame Noor University, Karaj, Iran
2 Assistant Professor of Agricultural Economics and Faculty Member of Agricultural Planning, Economics and Rural Development Research Institute (APERDRI), Tehran, Iran
3 Associate Professor of Natural Resources Engineering, Payame Noor University, Karaj, Iran
4 Assistant Professor of Natural Resources Engineering, Payame Noor University, Karaj, Iran
چکیده [English]

Agriculture is one of the economic sectors and plays an important role in ensuring food security, economic growth, employment and, eventually, GDP. Increasing production of major crops like wheat may lead to improve food security. In this study, we investigated the impacts of purchase support policies and guaranteed prices on the cultivation area and production of Wheat during 1369-96. In order to modeling the relationships between variables, The Nerlove partial adjustment model was used and for clearing the relationships between variables and test the hypotheses,the ARDL model was used. The results indicated that the guaranteed purchase and the guaranteed price had a positive and significant impact on the wheat cultivation area and production. This Study indicated that increase in guaranteed price for wheat was less than the inflation rate in same years. Therefore, it is suggested that inflation ratemust be considered in determining a guaranteed price, as mentioned in the law.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Agriculture
  • Support Policies
  • Cultivation Area
  • Production
  • Nerlove Model
  • Auto Regressive Distributed Lags (ARDL)

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