بررسی اثر سیل سال 98 بر تولید و اشتغال بخش کشاورزی ایران با استفاده از روش حذف فرضی تعمیم یافته

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکترای اقتصاد، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، واحد الیگودرز، ایران

2 استادیار دانشگاه لرستان و مدرس دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، واحد الیگودرز، ایران.

3 استادیار دانشگاه آیت الله العظمی بروجردی

4 پژوهشگر پسادکتری علوم اقتصادی، دانشگاه الزهرا، تهران، ایران.

چکیده

سیل‌هایی که در سال آبی 1398، در نقاط مختلف کشور به ‏وقوع پیوسته، باعث خسارات جانی و مالی چشمگیر شده است. تحقیق حاضر با هدف بررسی تأثیر سیل سال 1398 بر بخش کشاورزی و تأثیر خسارت وارده بر این بخش روی سایر بخش‌ها در اقتصاد ایران و همچنین، تعیین میزان وابستگی بخش کشاورزی به سایر بخش‌ها صورت گرفت. بدین منظور، از روش حذف فرضی تعمیم ‏یافته دیازنباخر و لهر، با به ‏کارگیری دو سناریو، استفاده شد. در سناریوی اول، ابتدا سهم کاهش ستانده بخش کشاورزی در سیل سال 1398 به میزان 28 درصد محاسبه شد و سپس، با استفاده از میزان برآوردشده برای انجام روش حذف فرضی تعمیم‏ یافته به ‏منظور تعیین آثار آن بر ستانده و اشتغال بخش کشاورزی و نیز اثر این بخش بر سایر بخش‌های اقتصادی استفاده شد. در سناریوی دوم، بررسی همین روش با استفاده از یک تکانه منفی ده درصدی بر این بخش صورت گرفت. نتایج پژوهش نشان داد که در سناریوی اول، ستانده کل اقتصاد حدود 130102 میلیون ریال (1/31 درصد) کاهش می ‏یابد و بخش کشاورزی و زیربخش‌های برق، آب و گاز و هتل و رستوران و نیز بخش صنعت بیشترین تأثیر را می‌پذیرند؛ از دیدگاه اشتغال نیز این کاهش روی خود بخش کشاورزی و سپس، زیربخش‌های خدمات عمده‌فروشی و خرده‌فروشی و هتل و رستوران و نیز بخش صنعت بیشترین اثر را دارد؛ همچنین، در سناریوی دوم، ستانده کل اقتصاد حدود 68677 میلیون ریال (44/17 درصد) کاهش می‏یابد و روی ستانده خود بخش کشاورزی و زیربخش برق، آب و گاز بیشترین تأثیر را دارد. با توجه به نتایج تحقیق، شایسته است که افزون بر توجه به جبران خسارت ناشی از وقوع سیل در بخش کشاورزی، خسارت سایر بخش‌های اقتصادی به‏ ویژه برق، آب و گاز (از منظر تولید) و خدمات عمده ‏فروشی و خرده ‏فروشی (از منظر اشتغال) به‏عنوان بخش‌هایی با بیشترین تأثیرپذیری از خسارت بخش کشاورزی نیز در کانون توجه سیاست‏گذاران قرار گیرد.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Examining the effect of floods in 1398 on production and employment in Iran agricultural sector using the Expanding Hypothetical Extraction method

نویسندگان [English]

  • N. Baranpour 1
  • D. Hasanvand 2
  • Younes Nademi, 3
  • F. Tarahomi 4
1 Postdoctoral Researcher in Economics, Alzahra University, Tehran, Iran
2 Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Ayatollah Boroujerdi University, Boroujerd, Iran
3 Assistant Professor, Economics, Ayatollah Boroujerdi University, Iran
4 Postdoctoral Researcher in Economics, Alzahra University, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

The occurrence of floods during the 2019 water year in various parts of Iran has resulted in tremendous casualties and financial losses This study aimed at investigating the impact of the flood 2019 on the agricultural sector and the impacts of this sectoer’s damages on the other sectors of Iran's economy as well as determining the degree of dependence of the agricultural sector on other sectors. For this purpose, the generalized hypothetical extraction method of Dietzenbacher and Lahr was used in two scenarios. In the first scenario, first, the reduced share of the agricultural sector output during the flood was calculated at 28 percent; then, the estimated value was used to perform the generalized hypothetical extraction method in order to specify its impacts on the output and employment of the agricultural sector and the impact of this sector on the other economic sectors. In the second scenario, the same method was applied using a 10 percent negative shock in this sector. The study results indicated that in the first scenario, the economy's total output would decrease by approximately 130102 million IR rials (31.1 percent), and the agricultural sector as well as the electricity, water, and gas sub-sectors would be most affected; from an employment viewpoint, this reduction would have the highest impact on the agricultural sector followed by wholesale and retail services. In the second scenario, the economy's total output would decrease by approximately 68677 million IR rials (17.44 percent), having the highest impact on the output of the agricultural sector as well as the electricity, water, and gas sub-sector. Therefore, after compensating the damage in the agricultural sector, the damage to other economic sectors, especially the electricity, water and gas sub-sector (in terms of production), and the wholesale and retail services (in terms of employment) should be considered for compensation efforts.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • flood
  • output- input table. Expanding Hypothetical Extraction method. production
  • employment
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