تحلیل اقتصادی-زیست محیطی اجرای سیاست اصلاح یارانه نهاده‌های کشاورزی در ایران: کاربرد مدل تعادل عمومی قابل محاسبه

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکترای اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، واحد مرودشت، مرودشت، ایران.

2 نویسنده مسئول و دانشیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، واحد مرودشت، مرودشت، ایران.

3 استاد گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، واحد مرودشت، مرودشت، ایران.

چکیده

در مطالعه حاضر، اثرات کاهش یارانه اختصاص‏ یافته به بخش کشاورزی در قالب الگوی تعادل عمومی بر متغیرهای اقتصادی و زیست ‏محیطی ارزیابی شد. در این راستا، کاهش یارانه بخش کشاورزی در پنج سطح در نظر گرفته شد. نتایج نشان داد که اصلاح و کاهش یارانه ‏های بخش کشاورزی به کاهش تولیدات داخلی، رشد قیمت‌ها و کاهش تقاضای نهایی محصولات کشاورزی به‏ ویژه محصولات اساسی برای خانوارها می‏ انجامد و از این‏رو، امنیت غذایی را به مخاطره می‏اندازد؛ همچنین، با حرکت به سمت سناریوی کاهش هشتاد درصدی این یارانه ‏ها، کاهش در مخارج واقعی دولت معادل 87/5- درصد می ‏شود. نتایج برآوردها حاکی از آن بود که در پی کاهش یارانه‏ های بخش کشاورزی، محصولات گندم بیشترین و جو کمترین کاهش تولید را خواهند داشت؛ همچنین، با اعمال سناریوهای مورد نظر، زیربخش‌ شیلات بیش از زیربخش‌­های دام و جنگل‏ومرتع کاهش تولید را تجربه می­کند، به ‏گونه‏ای که با کاهش ده درصدی یارانه بخش کشاورزی، میزان کاهش در تولید محصولات دام، شیلات و جنگل‏ومرتع، به ‏‎ترتیب، 4/2- ، 4/10- و 8- درصد ارزیابی شد. افزون بر این، کاهش یارانه ‏های بخش کشاورزی، در آینده، منجر به کاهش آلودگی‏ های زیست‏محیطی خواهد شد، به ‏گونه ‏ای که میزان کاهش در تولید گاز دی‏اکسید کربن (CO2) در سناریو اول، 92/0- درصد و در سناریو پنجم، 90/22- درصد محاسبه شد. با توجه به ضرورت بازنگری در نظام پرداخت یارانه‌ها، شایسته است که اجرای سیاست کاهش یارانه نهاده ‏های کشاورزی به‏ صورت تدریجی و با ترکیب بهینه و اجرای هم‏زمان چند ابزار سیاستی متناسب با ساختار تولید و ساختار بازار هر محصول انجام شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Economic-environmental analysis of Implementation of agricultural inputs subsidy reform policy in Iran: Application of computable general equilibrium model

نویسندگان [English]

  • F. Azik 1
  • S. N Mousavi 2
  • B. Najafi 3
1 PhD Student in Agricultural Economics, Islamic Azad University, Marvdasht Branch, Marvdasht, Iran
2 Corresponding Author and Associate Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics, Islamic Azad University, Marvdasht Branch, Marvdasht, Iran
3 Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics, Islamic Azad University, Marvdasht Branch, Marvdasht, Iran.
چکیده [English]

the effects of reducing subsidies allocatedto the agricultural sector in the form of a general equilibrium model on economic and environmental variables were evaluated.In this regard, the reduction of subsidies in the agricultural sector was considered at5levels.The results showed that subsidy reform in the agricultural sector will reduce agricultural production and increase prices,reduce the final demand for agricultural products,especially basic products for households,and therefore endanger food security.moving towards the last scenario,ie an80%reduction in subsidies in the agricultural sector, the percentage reduction in real government expenditures is estimated at-5.87%The results show the highest decrease in production is relatedto wheat and the lowest is related to barley.by applying the desired scenarios,the fisheries sector experiences a decrease in production more than other livestock,forest and rangeland sectors.Thus,with a10%reduction in subsidies in the agricultural sector, the rate of reduction in the production of livestock,fisheries,forestry and rangeland products has been estimated at-2.4%,-10.4%and-8%respectively.Implementing the policy of reducing subsidies allocatedto the agricultural sector reduces the level of domestic production and,consequently,increases the price of agricultural products and ultimately reduces the final demand for agricultural products.the reduction of subsidies in the agricultural sector in the future will leadto a reduction in environmental pollution.the reduction in CO2production in the first scenario was equalto-0.92percent and in the fifth scenario was-22.90percent.Given the needto review the subsidy payment system,the implementation of the policy of reducing subsidies to agricultural inputs shouldbe done gradually and with optimal combination and simultaneous implementation of several policy tools appropriate to the production structure and market structure of each product.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Subsidy
  • Computable General Equilibrium Model
  • Food security
  • Household Welfare
  • Pollution
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