سناریوسازی آثار شوک سرمایه گذاری درآمدهای نفتی ایران بر بخش های کشاورزی، صنعت و خدمات: رهیافت مدل RDCGE

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسنده

استادیار اقتصاد کشاورزی، مؤسسة پژوهش‌های برنامه‌ریزی، اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعة روستایی، تهران، ایران.

چکیده

با توجه به نقش و اهمیت انکارناپذیر درآمدهای نفتی در تمامی ابعاد اقتصاد کشورهای در حال توسعه (رشد تولید ناخالص داخلی، بودجه دولت، نرخ پس‏ انداز، سرمایه­ گذاری، نرخ تورم، نرخ بیکاری، کاهش فقر و ...)، در مطالعه حاضر، چگونگی اثرپذیری بخش ه­ای کشاورزی، صنعت­ و ­معدن و خدمات ایران از شوک سرمایه­ گذاری درآمدهای نفتی بر اساس نُه سناریو شبیه ‏سازی شد؛ این سناریوها عبارت ‏اند از تخصیص درآمدهای نفتی به صندوق توسعه ملی (بیست، پنجاه و هشتاد درصد) و مقادیر رشد بهره­ وری کل عوامل تولید (پنج، هشت و ده درصد). داده­ های مورد نیاز به ­صورت فصلی طی دوره 95-1370 از بانک مرکزی و مرکز آمار ایران گردآوری شد و تحلیل داده ­ها با بهره ‏گیری از مدل تعادل عمومی محاسبه ­پذیر پویای بازگشتی (RDCGE) صورت گرفت. همچنین، کالیبراسیون مدل با به‏ کارگیری ماتریس حسابداری اجتماعی سال 1390 و سناریوی پایه (بیست درصد ذخیره درآمدهای نفتی در صندوق توسعه ملی و پنج درصد رشد بهره­ وری کل عوامل تولید) صورت پذیرفت. نتایج توابع واکنش ضرب ه‏ای نشان داد که اگر در سناریوی پایه، یک شوک مثبت به درآمدهای نفتی وارد شود، ورود سرمایه به بخش ‏های کشاورزی و صنعت ­و­معدن کاهش و به بخش خدمات افزایش می­یابد، که مؤید بیماری هلندی در اقتصاد ایران است؛ اما با افزایش سهم ذخیره درآمدهای نفتی در صندوق توسعه ملی به میزان پنجاه درصد، از روند بیماری هلندی کاسته می ‏شود و چنانچه این سهم به هشتاد درصد افزایش یابد، بیماری هلندی حذف خواهد شد. همچنین، افزایش رشد بهره­ وری کل عوامل تولید باعث افزایش ورود سرمایه به بخش­ های یادشده می­ شود. در نهایت، پیشنهادهایی برای افزایش ذخیره درآمدهای نفتی در صندوق توسعه ملی و بهره ­وری کل عوامل تولید ارائه شد.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Senario-Making for Impacts of Iran's Oil Revenue Investment Shock on Agriculture, Industry and Services: RDCGE Model Approach

نویسنده [English]

  • S. M. Fahimifard
Assistant Professor, Agricultural Planning, Economics and Rural Development Research Institute
چکیده [English]

Given the importance role of oil export revenues in the whole dimensions of economy of oil exporting developing countries (government budget, GDP growth rate, investment, saving rate, inflation rate, unemployment rate, poverty alleviation, etc.), this study aimed at investigating and simulating the impact of the oil revenues investing shocks on Iran's economic sectors (i.e. Agriculture, Industry and Services) through nine scenarios including the savings of the oil export revenues in national development fund (20, 50 and 80 percent) and the growth in total efficiency of production factors (5, 8 and 10 percent).The required data were seasonally collected from Central Bank of Iran (CBI) and Statistical Center of Iran (SCI) during 1991-2016. For data analysis, the Mathlab software and Recursive Computable General Dynamic Equivalent (RDCGE) model were applied. Also, the model was calibrated using the social accounting matrix related to the base year of 2011 and basic scenario (saving 20 percent of oil export revenues in national development fund and 5 percent of growth in total efficiency of production factors). Results of Impulse Response Functions (IRF) showed that a positive shock in basic scenario on oil export revenues caused an investment reduction in agriculture and industry sectors while an investment increase in services sector, indicating the existence of Dutch disease in Iran’s economy; but during an increase in saving the oil export revenues in national development fund by 50 percent, the effect of Dutch disease would reduce and increasing the share of saving the oil export revenues in national development fund by 80 percent would remove the effect of Dutch disease; in addition, increasing the growth in total efficiency of production factors would increase the investment in the mentioned sectors.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Oil revenues investment
  • agriculture sector
  • industry and mine sector
  • services sector
  • RDCGE model
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