بررسی عوامل مؤثر بر صادرات صنایع غذایی ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسنده

استادیار اقتصاد کشاورزی، مؤسسة پژوهش های برنامه ریزی، اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه روستایی، تهران، ایران.

چکیده

از دیرباز، اقتصاد ایران با ویژگی اصلی وابستگی به درآمدهای نفتی و اقتصاد تک‏ محصولی شناخته شده است. تحولات دهه 1390 در سیاست کشورهای غربی علیه ایران و اعمال تحریم‏ ها لزوم توجه به کاهش وابستگی به درآمدهای نفتی و توسعه صادرات غیرنفتی را بیش از پیش آشکار کرد. در این بین، صادرات محصولات صنایع غذایی، با توجه به توان ‏های موجود در کشور و مزیت‏ هایی از جمله ارزش افزوده بالاتر و ایجاد اشتغال، یکی از ارکان صادرات غیرنفتی به‏ شمار می ‏رود. از این‏رو، در تحقیق خاضر، با استفاده از روش داده‏ های پانل و الگوی جاذبه، عوامل مؤثر بر صادرات صنایع غذایی ایران به کشورهای هدف در سال ‏های 2018-2001 بررسی شد. نتایج تحقیق نشان داد که متغیرهای درآمد سرانه کشورهای هدف و ایران، جمعیت کشورهای هدف و ایران و شاخص قیمت صادراتی ایران دارای اثر مثبت و متغیر فاصله دارای اثر منفی بر ارزش صادرات صنایع غذایی ایران است؛ متغیر نرخ ارز واقعی نیز دارای اثر مثبت بوده، اما از لحاظ آماری معنی‏دار نشده است. در نهایت، با توجه به نتایج پژوهش حاضر، توسعه بازارهای هدف و تمرکز بر کشورهای منطقه با درآمد سرانه بالا، تقویت دیپلماسی اقتصادی و توسعه زیرساخت ‏های حمل ‏و نقل به‏ منظور کاهش هزینه‏ های جابج‏ایی و ... پیشنهاد شده است.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Investigation of the Factors Affecting Iran's Food Industry Exports: Application of Gravity Model

نویسنده [English]

  • K. Shemshadi
Assistant Professor of Agricultural Economics; Agricultural Planning, Economics and Rural Development Research Institute (APERDRI), Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

For a long time, the main feature of Iran's economy has been its dependence on oil revenues and a single-product economy. Developments in the 1990s in Western countries' policies against Iran and the imposed sanctions have made it increasingly necessary to pay attention to reducing dependence on oil revenues and developing non-oil exports. Meanwhile, the export of food industry products is one of the pillars of non-oil exports due to the existing potentials in the country and certain advantages such as higher added value and job creation. Therefore, this study aimed at investigating the factors affecting the export of Iran's food industry to the target countries using the panel data method and the gravity model during 2001-2018. The results showed that the variables of per capita income of the target countries and Iran, population of the target countries and Iran and export price index of Iran had positive effects and the variable of distance had a negative effect on the export value of Iran's food industry. The variable of real exchange rate also had a positive effect though not statistically significant on the export of Iran's food industry to the target countries. Finally, according to the study results on the development of target markets and focus on the countries of the region, given that these countries have high per capita incomes, it might be recommended to strengthen economic diplomacy and develop transport infrastructure to reduce transportation costs.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • export
  • gravity model
  • Food Industry products
  • Iran
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