شناسایی استانداردهای لازم و رتبه‌بندی محصولات کشاورزی برای معامله در بازارهای آتی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 نویسندة مسئول و دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران (Fkariminejad@pnu.ac.ir).

2 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد، مدیریت و حسابداری. دانشگاه یزد. یزد. ایران

3 دانشیار اقتصاد کشاورزی، موسسه پژوهش‌های برنامه ریزی، اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه روستایی.

چکیده

بازار­ آتی پررونق و کارآی محصولات کشاورزی می‌تواند به روند توسعه در این بخش کمک کند. در واقع، افزایش کارآیی بازار محصولات کشاورزی، کاهش حاشیه‌های بازاریابی و بهبود شبکه انبارداری، بسته‌بندی و توزیع محصولات، به ‏همراه توسعه سرمایه‌گذاری در بخش کشاورزی، مجموعه عواملی هستند که می‌توانند روند رشد و توسعه بخش کشاورزی را سرعت بخشند. تحقیق حاضر با هدف شناسایی استانداردهای لازم و رتبه‌بندی محصولات کشاورزی برای معامله در بازارهای آتی انجام گرفت. بدین منظور، به بررسی دوازده محصول کشاورزی پذیرفته ‏نشده در بورس کالا و بازارهای آتی پرداخته شد. در تحقیق ترکیبی (کیفی- کمی) حاضر، برای دستیابی به هدف یادشده، نخست، با بهره­‌گیری از روش داده‌‏بنیاد و انجام مصاحبه با خبرگان، استانداردهای لازم برای پذیرفته شدن محصولات کشاورزی در بازار آتی شناسایی شد؛ سپس، محاسبه کمی استانداردها و سرانجام، برآورد رگرسیون و رتبه‌بندی محصولات برای ورود به بازار آتی صورت گرفت. داده­‌های پژوهش شامل اطلاعات سال‌های 96-1387 بود که از بانک‌های اطلاعاتی بورس کالای کشاورزی، وزرات جهاد کشاورزی، گمرک جمهوری اسلامی ایران و مرکز آمار ایران استخراج شد. در نهایت، نتایج حاصل از دسته­‌بندی و گروه‌بندی استانداردها برای پذیرش در بازارهای آتی بر اساس عوامل مخاطرة (ریسک) درآمدی محصولات، اندازه بازار نقدى، هزینه سیالیت، درجه همگنی، درجه تجاری بودن و فسادپذیری به‏ دست آمد. همچنین، محصولات مورد بررسی بر اساس ارزش مبادلات آتی، به ‏ترتیب اولویت، عبارت بودند از ذرت علوفه‌ای، پسته، خرما، کشمش، کلزا ، ذرت دانه‌ای، نخود، سویا، عدس، گندم، چای و جو. بنابراین، بر اساس الگوی برآوردی، محصولات ذرت علوفه‌ای، پسته، خرما و کشمش، به ‏ترتیب، دارای بیشترین ارزش برای معاملات آتی شناخته شدند. در نتیجه، محصولاتی که ارزش معاملات آتی بیشتری دارند، در معاملات آتی می ­توانند موفق‌تر عمل کنند. از این­ رو، پیشنهاد می­‌شود که سیاست­گذاران بخش کشاورزی در ایجاد بازار آتی محصولات کشاورزی عوامل شش ‏گانة پیش‌‏گفته را مد نظر قرار دهند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Identifying the necessary standards and ranking of agricultural products for trading in future markets

نویسندگان [English]

  • Farahnaz Kariminejad 1
  • Gholamreza Yavari 2
  • mahdi kazemnejad 3
1 Corresponding Author and PhD Student in Agricultural Economics, Payame Noor University, Tehran, Iran
2 Associate Professor. Faculty of Economics. Management and Accounting. Yazd university. Yazd. Iran
3 Associate Professor of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural Planning, Economic and Rural Development Research Institute (APERDRI), Tehran, Iran.
چکیده [English]

Introduction: The thriving and efficient future market for agricultural products can contribute to the development process in this sector. In fact, increasing the efficiency of the agricultural market, reducing marketing margins and improving the warehousing network, packaging and distributing products, along with the development of investment in the agricultural sector, are a set of factors that can accelerate the growth and development of the agricultural sector. Obviously, the benefits will be obtained if there is an instant, enormous and active market, and the first condition for the success of a future agricultural market is the existence of suitable and consistent future contracts and agricultural economy in Iran. So, the questions to be answered in this study included: Which agricultural products are able to launch a futures market? What are the order and priorities of these products to enter the futures market?
Materials and Methods: This research was conducted with a mixed approach including a qualitative-quantitative method. Therefore, the data were analyzed in two phases: the first phase used a qualitative method for identifying the necessary standards of different products to enter the future market, and the second phase used a quantitative method to measure the identified standards by calculating the identified indicators; and finally, the regression model was estimated to calculate the future value. The identification of standards (phase 1) was based on the qualitative methodology of the grounded theory; and using the six standards identified in the previous phase, the standards and the value of future transactions for different products were calculated (phase 2). The required data were collected for the period 2008-2017, including the necessary variables to proxy the value of future transactions and the volume and price of transactions from the Agricultural Commodity Exchange (ACE), the price of agricultural products and the yields of products from the statistics of the Ministry of Agriculture-Jahad (MAJ), the amount of export and import from the Islamic Republic of Iran Customs Administration (IRICA), the total cost from the Statistical Center of Iran (SCI), and the level of homogeneity from the opinions of experts and the comments received from the concerned professionals.
Results and Discussion: This study aimed at identifying the necessary standards and ranking of agricultural products for trading in future markets. For this purpose, 12 agricultural products that were not accepted in the commodity exchange and future markets were examined. Firstly, using the grounded theory through interviews with experts, the necessary standards for the acceptance of agricultural products in the future market were identified. Then, a quantitative calculation of standards and finally, an estimation of regression and ranking of products to enter the future market were determined. Using interview coding and research background, the necessary standards for acceptance in the future markets were found as follows: income risk of products, cash market size, liquidity cost, degree of homogeneity, degree of commerciality and perishability. Also, the examined products based on the value of future exchanges, in order of priority, included fodder corn, pistachios, dates, raisins, canola, grain corn, peas, soybeans, lentils, wheat, tea, and barley. The fodder corn, pistachios, dates and raisins products were the first products obtained the highest values, respectively, for futures trading, based on the estimated model and obviously, the products with more value for futures trading might be more successful in futures trading. Therefore, it is suggested that the policy makers of the agricultural sector consider the six mentioned factors in creating the future market of agricultural products.
Conclusions: It is necessary for policymakers of the agricultural sector to consider that soybeans, rapeseed, chickpeas, seed corn and fodder are the most homogeneous and barley, pistachio and tea products are the most heterogeneous products among all exchangeable goods in the future markets of selected agricultural products. Therefore, it is expected that more homogeneous products will have a higher level of prosperity and success due to the high standardization and grading capabilities that are essential for exchangeable products in the future markets.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Futures Market
  • Agricultural Products
  • Standard Identification
  • Panel Regression
  • Grounded Theory

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