عبور نرخ ارز به قیمت کنجاله سویا و ذرت وارداتی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار پژوهش، مؤسسه پژوهش‌های برنامه‌ریزی، اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه روستایی. تهران. ایران.

2 استادیار پژوهش، موسسه پژوهش‌های برنامه‌ریزی، اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه روستایی. تهران. ایران.

چکیده

در پی بروز نوسان‏‌های نرخ ارز، دولت با هدف جلوگیری از جهش قیمت نهاده‌های وارداتی خوراک دام و طیور (مانند کنجاله سویا و ذرت) سیاست پرداخت ارز با نرخ ترجیحی به واردات این نهاده‌ها را از اردیبهشت 1397 در دستور کار خود قرار داد. از این‌‏رو، در مطالعة حاضر، با به‌‏کارگیری اطلاعات ماهانه در دوره 1388:1-1398:8، اثر نرخ ارز و عبور آن به قیمت دو نهاده وارداتی ذرت و کنجاله سویا بررسی شد. نتایج نشان داد که به‏ دلیل ارتباط غیر‏خطی میان متغیرها، به ‏کارگیری الگوی غیرخطی مارکوف سوئیچینگ مناسب است. همچنین، برای ذرت سه رژیم و برای کنجاله سویا دو رژیم پایدار شناسایی شد. عبور نرخ ارز برای قیمت ذرت در رژیم‏‌های صفر و یک معنی‏‏‌دار بود، به‏‌گونه‌‏ای که در کوتاه‌‏مدت، میزان عبور در رژیم صفر و یک، به ‏ترتیب، دوازده و بیست درصد و اما میزان عبور بلندمدت در رژیم‌‏های یادشده، به‌‏ترتیب، بیست و شانزده درصد برآورد شد. برای کنجاله سویا میزان عبور نرخ ارز در رژیم یک معنی‌‏دار و میزان عبور در کوتاه‌‏مدت و بلندمدت، به ‏ترتیب، نوزده و 22 بود. این یافته‌‏ها حاکی از آن است که عبور نرخ ارز در همه رژیم‌های مربوط به هر دو نهاده ناقص روی داده است. اگرچه شروع اتخاذ سیاست ارز ترجیحی از ابتدای سال 1397 بوده، اما از ابتدای سال 1398 توانسته است از عبور کامل نوسان‌‏های نرخ ارز به قیمت نهاده‏‌های دامی مورد مطالعه جلوگیری کند. بعد از تغییرات سیاست ارز ترجیحی، با اینکه پرداخت جبرانی به خانوارها در حال اجراست، ولی ضرورت دارد که اعطای تسهیلات مورد نیاز برای تأمین مالی تولیدکنندگان به ‏عنوان تقاضاکنندگان نهاده‏‌های وارداتی اجرایی شود. 

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Exchange Rate Pass-Through to the Price of Imported Soybean Meal and Maize

نویسندگان [English]

  • Ebrahim Javdan 1
  • Ehsan Rajabi 2
  • Ali Akbar Baghestany 2
1 Assistant Professor, Agricultural Planning, Economics and Rural Development Research Institute (APERDRI). Tehran, Iran.
2 Assistant Professor, Agricultural Planning, Economics and Rural Development Research Institute (APERDRI). Tehran, Iran.
چکیده [English]

Introduction: Following the exchange rate fluctuations, with the aim of preventing the jump in the prices of imported livestock and poultry feed inputs such as soybean meal and maize, Iranian government has chosen the policy of allocation preferential currency to the import of these inputs from May 2017. So, it is important to examine the effects of this policy and the amount of exchange rate pass-through to the price of soybean meal and maize.
Materials and Methods: In this study, using monthly data in the period 2009:3-2019:11, the impact of the exchange rate pass-through to the price of two imported inputs was investigated. For empirical analysis, the required data were collected from various sources such as Central Bank of Iran, State Livestock Affairs Logistic Company and International Grains Council. The estimation strategy was based on Markov Switching models. This framework allows the study to estimate the exchange rate pass-through to soybean meal and maize prices in various regimes.  
Results and Discussion: The results revealed that due to the non-linear relationship between the variables, it was appropriate to use the non-linear Markov Switching model. Also, three stable regimes were identified for maize and two stable regimes for soybean meal. Passing of the exchange rate for the price of maize in zero and one regimes was significant and in the short term, the exchange rate pass-through in the zero and one regimes was 12 and 20 percent, respectively. In the long-term, rate of passing in the mentioned regimes were estimated at 20 and 16 percent, respectively. For soybean meal., the passing rate of the exchange rate in the regime one was significant and the passing rate in the short and long term was 19 and 22, respectively. These findings indicated that exchange rate pass-through had occurred incomplete for both inputs.
Conclusions: Although the adoption of the preferential exchange policy started at the beginning of 2017, but since the beginning of 2019, it has been able to prevent the exchange rate fluctuations from passing completely to the price of soybean meal and maize. After the changes in the preferential currency policy, although the compensation payment to households is being implemented but it is necessary to implement the facilities for the financing of producers as demanders of imported inputs.
 

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Exchange Rate
  • Markov Switching Model
  • Soybean Meal
  • Maize
  • Iran

مراجع

  • Abbasinejad, H., & Ebrahimi, S. (2014). The impact of oil shocks on Tehran Stock Exchange’s return. Quarterly Journal of Economic Research and Policies, 21(68), 83-108. [In Persian]
  • Abdi Seyyedkolaee, M., Tehranchian, A., Jafari Samimi, A., & Mojaverian, S. (2017). The impact of exchange rate pass-through on implicit price index of Iran's agriculture sector: an application of M-GARCH and threshold regression models. Quarterly Journal of Applied Theories of Economics, 3(4), 101-128. [In Persian]
  • Alvarez, R., Shoja, A., Uddin, S., & Yilmazkuday, H. (2019). Daily exchange rate pass-through into micro prices. Applied Economics Letters, 26(6), 440-445.
  • Arian, A., & Arabi, U. (2020). Transmission mechanism of exchange rate pass-through to domestic price: the case of Afghanistan. Asian Social Science, 16(4), 1-14.
  • Asghar­­pour, H., & Mahdiloo, A. (2014). The impact of inflationary environment on exchange rate pass-through on import prices in Iran: Markov-Switching approach. Quarterly Journal of Economic Research and Policies, 22(70), 75-102. [In Persian]
  • Asgharpour, H., Kazerooni, A., & Mirani, N. (2015). The impact of inflationary environment on exchange rate pass-through to the import price index in Iran. Quarterly Journal of Applied Theories of Economics, 2(2), 155-178. [In Persian]
  • Baharumshah, A. Z., Soon, S. V., & Wohar, M. E. (2017). Markov-Switching analysis of exchange rate pass-through: perspective from Asian countries. International Review of Economics and Finance, 5, 245-257.
  • Barghi Ouskuei, M. M., & Shahbazzadeh, A (2014). Investigating Granger causality between the crude oil price and the gold price with emphasis on non-linear Markov-switching approach. Quarterly Energy Economics Review, 10(40), 39-64. [In Persian]
  • Dornbusch, R. (1987). Exchange rate and prices. The American Review, 77(1), 93-106.
  • Eisazadeh Rowshan, Y. (2015). Exchange rate pass-through, case study of Iran. Quarterly Journal of The Macro and Strategic Policies, 3(10), 89-106. [In Persian]
  • Enders, W. (2015). Applied econometric time series> The Fourth Edition. University of Alabama, New York (US).
  • Ghahremanzadeh, M., Faraji, S., & Pishbahar, E. (2020). The transmission world price and exchange rate to domestic prices of livestock’s major imported inputs in Iran. Agricultural Economics, 14(2), 23-52. [In Persian]
  • Goldfeld, S. M., & Quandt, R. E. (1973). A Markov model for switching regressions. Journal of Econometrics, 1(1), 3-15.
  • Hamilton, J. (1994). Time series analysis. Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ.
  • Hosseinzad, J., & Rashidqalam, M. (2017). Exchange rates impacts on poultry husbandry inputs prices. Iranian Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development Research, 48(1), 1-8. [In Persian]
  • Javdan, E., Pishbahar, E., Haghighat, J., & Mohammadrezaei, R. (2018). Measuring the pass-through effect of global prices to domestic prices of selected food products in Iran. Agricultural Economics and Development, 25(4), 147-165. [In Persian]
  • Kazerooni, A., Salmani, B., & Feshari, M. (2012). The impact of exchange rate volatility on the exchange rate pass-through in Iran (TVP approach). Journal of Applied Economics Studies in Iran, 1(2), 85-114. [In Persian]
  • Khoshbakht, A., & Akhbari, M. (2007). Exchange rate pass-through to consumer price indexes and import in Iran. Economics Research, 7(27), 51-82. [In Persian]
  • Krolzig, H. M. (1998). Econometric modelling of Markov-Switching Vector Autoregressions using MSVAR for Ox. Unpublished, Nuffield College.
  • Krolzig, H. M. (2001). Business cycle measurement in the presence of structural change: international evidence. International Journal of Forecasting, 17(3), 349-368.
  • Mesbahi, M., Asgharpour, H., Haghighat, J., Kazerooni, S., & Fallahi, F. (2017). Exchange rate pass-through into import price in Iran economy with emphasis on volatility of oil revenues (nonlinear approach). Economic Modeling, 11(37), 77-100. [In Persian]
  • Pishbahar, E., Ghahremanzadeh, M., & Aref Eshghi, T. (2014). Exchange pass-through in to food inflation in Iran. Agricultural Economics, 7(4), 1-21. [In Persian]
  • Sadat-Hosseini, N., Asgharpour, H., & Haghighat, J. (2018). Effect of exchange rate pass-through on import price index: smooth transition regression approach. Journal of Economic Research, 53(2), 57-75. [In Persian]
  • Sahminan, S. (2002). Exchange rate pass-through into import prices: empirical evidences from some Southeast Asian countries. Working Paper. The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.
  • Salehi Sarbijan, M., Reisi, G., & Shetab Booshehri, N. (2013). Studying recessions and booms in Iran economy by using Markov Switching model. Economic Modeling, 7(23), 67-83. [In Persian]
  • Sameti, M., Khannzadi, A., & Yazdani, M. (2010). Investigating asymmetric effects of exchange rate fluctuations on real output and prices levels hypothesis (a case study of Iran). Journal of Monetary and Banking Research, 2(4), 35-58. [In Persian]
  • Shajari, H., Tayebi, K., & Jalaee, S. A. (2006). An analysis of exchange rate pass-through in Iran: an application of neuro-fuzzy systems. Iranian Journal of Economic Research, 8(26), 153-179. [In Persian]
  • Souri, A. (2015). Advanced econometrics (Vol. 2). Farhang-Shenasi Press.
  • Taylor, J. B. (2000). Low inflation, pass-through, and the pricing power of firms. European Economic Review, 44(7), 1389-1408.
  • Vajdi, F., Ghahremanzadeh, M., & Hosseinzad, J. (2018). Risk spillover effect of exchange rate on chicken market and its major inputs in Iran. Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development, 32(3), 213-225. [In Persian]

فایل ها

هم رسانی

ارجاع به این مقاله

آمار