نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 نویسنده مسئول و استادیار اقتصاد کشاورزی، موسسه پژوهشهای برنامه ریزی، اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه روستایی، تهران، ایران.
2 استادیار اقتصاد کشاورزی، موسسه پژوهشهای برنامه ریزی، اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه روستایی، تهران، ایران.
3 استادیار اقتصاد کشاورزی، موسسه پژوهشهای برنامه ریزی، اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه روستایی، تهران، ایران
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
Introduction: Exchange rate is a variable that can affect the performance of economy and economic variables. By any change in the exchange rate, food prices and consequently, food consumption is affected. The exchange rate is one of the most important factors affecting the food consumption due to its effects on the price of imported goods. Fluctuations in the exchange rates and consequently, food price fluctuations, by affecting the access dimension, make it impossible to realize food security. With this approach, in the present study, the effects of fluctuations in free market exchange rates on the food consumption in rural areas of Iran were examined. In addition, in order to examine the effectiveness of government policies to control currency fluctuations over recent years, the effect of preferential currency subsidy policy on consumption in the rural areas was analyzed. Achieving these goals provides the necessary knowledge to modify current policies or adopt new currency policies.
Materials and Methods: Theoretical model of the research was first explained by applying theoretical foundations and various studies. Then, the information needed to conduct the study was collected during the period of 2005-2021. Next, the stationary of the model variables was examined through Levin, Lin and Chu (LLC) and Fisher-Dickey Fuller (Fisher-ADF) tests. Finally, the short and long term relationship between variables analyzed in the formwork of ARDL panel model.
Results and Discussion: The results showed that the increase in exchange rate fluctuations reduced household consumption in rural areas in the short and long terms; in addition, although the preferential currency subsidy policy had a positive and significant effect on the household consumption, this effect was not noticeable. On the other hand, based on the results, the price index of food groups had a negative effect on the food consumption in the rural areas of Iran in the short and long terms and by contrast, the increase in household income had a positive and significant effect on the food consumption in the rural areas in the short and long terms. Finally, the results of the Error Correction Model (ECM) showed that due to the low speed of adjustment, currency shocks had a long lasting effect (nearly two years) on food prices in Iran's economy.
Conclusions: According to the study results, the preferential currency policy does not provide the possibility of achieving the goal of food consumption stability; therefore, it is necessary to remove it and use managed floating currency policies. With the removal of the mentioned policy in order to support the food security of the weak classes of the society in the short term, the distribution of food packages through trustee institutions including the relief foundation and the welfare organization can be considered. The cash-in-kind payment policy is also one of the policies that can provide more appropriate distribution of subsidies in the short term. However, in the long term, increasing or stabilizing the purchasing power of people, especially the low-income and weak classes, is only possible through employment creation policies as well as strengthening production and supply.
کلیدواژهها [English]
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