بررسی و تحلیل کارایی بازار های هدف صادرات محصولات کشاورزی ایران در کشورهای عضو سازمان همکاری شانگهای

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشیار و عضو هیئت علمی موسسه پژوهش‌های برنامه‌ریزی، اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه روستایی

2 دانش آموخته دکتری اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، واحد علوم تحقیقات، تهران، ایران

3 دانش آموخته دکتری اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران.

4 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، مشهد، ایران

چکیده

بهره‌مندی از فرصت ایجادشده از طریق عضویت در توافقنامه‌های جهانی نیازمند تحقیقات بازار برای شناسایی توان‌ها یا همان پتانسیل‏‌های بازارهای هدف است. از این‌‏رو، پژوهش حاضر با هدف تحلیل فرصت‌های صادراتی کشاورزی ایران با عضویت در سازمان همکاری شانگهای از طریق الگوی جاذبه مرزی تصادفی در دوره 2018- 2001 صورت گرفت. نتایج الگوی جاذبه بیانگر آن بود که مؤلفه‌های بزرگی اقتصادی و فیزیکی شرکای تجاری اثر مثبت و معنی‌دار و فاصله جغرافیایی اثر منفی بر صادرات کشاورزی ایران دارد؛ همچنین، تفاوت اقتصادی و آزادی تجاری دارای نقش مؤثر در افزایش صادرات کشاورزی ایران به شرکای تجاری سازمان همکاری شانگهای است. نتایج کارآیی نیز نشان داد که در دوره زمانی 2018-2016، کارآیی صادرات ایران در بازه 9/11 تا 4/86 قرار داشت و افزون بر این، کمترین میزان کارآیی مربوط به کشور ازبکستان و بیشترین آن مربوط به پاکستان بوده، که نشان‌دهندة تفاوت چشمگیر عملکرد بازاری ایران در کشورهای عضو این سازمان است. با توجه به نوسان در کارآیی تجاری هر کدام از بازارهای هدف در دوره‌های مختلف، پیشنهاد می‌شود که در تنظیم مناسبات تجاری و تدوین راهبردهای صادراتی با استفاده از ظرفیت عضویت ایران در سازمان همکاری شانگهای، حفظ ثبات تجاری و حضور مداوم در بازارهای هدف در راستای ایجاد نشان تجاری (برندسازی) محصولات ایرانی و ایجاد اعتماد در شرکای تجاری مد نظر قرار گیرد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Investigating and Analyzing the Efficiency of Iran’s Agricultural Export Target Markets in Member Countries of Shanghai Cooperation Organization

نویسندگان [English]

  • mehdi kazemnezhad 1
  • Sara Baghban Haghighi 2
  • elham Mehrparvar Hosseini 3
  • Milad Aminizadeh 4
1 Associate professor and faculty member of Agricultural Planning, Economics and Rural Development Research Institute (APERDRI)
2 Ph.D. of agricultural economics, Science and research Branch. Islamic Azad university of Tehran. Tehran. Iran
3 Ph.D. of agricultural economics. university of Tehran. Tehran, Iran
4 PhD Candidate of agricultural economics. Ferdowsi university of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran
چکیده [English]

Introduction: Entering the global markets leads to economic development in domestic and foreign dimensions, and along with the globalization of the economic structure, it creates a completely competitive environment in which powerful and efficient economic companies will have a chance to survive. In this regard, if trade is far from its real potential, it will be a very important obstacle on the way to achieving the goal of economic growth and its subcategory goals. Hence, taking advantage of the opportunities created through trade agreements requires market research to identify the potential of target markets.
Materials and Methods: This article aimed at investigating the determinants of the bilateral agricultural exports between Iran and the other official members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and then analyzing the agricultural export potential of Iran in these target markets through the Stochastic Frontier Gravity model in the period 2001-2018 by STATA 16 software. It should be mentioned that the export efficiency in the target market is defined as the ratio of a country's actual exports to its maximum export potential.
Results and Discussion: Based on the results, the variables of economic and physical size of trading partners had positive and significant effects, while geographical distance had a negative effect on Iran's agricultural exports; in addition, trade freedom and economic difference played an effective role in increasing Iran's agricultural exports to the trading partners of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. In the period of 2016-2018, the efficiency of Iran's exports was found to be in the range of 11.9 to 86.4, indicating the lowest efficiency for Uzbekistan and the highest for Pakistan, which showed the significant difference in Iran's market performance in the member countries of this organization.
Conclusions: As the signs of the model variables, it is suggested that exporters purpose the near target markets with higher per capita income and larger population. Also, considering the fluctuations in the trade efficiency of each of the target markets in different periods, it is suggested that maintaining trade stability and continuous presence in the target markets in order to brand Iranian products and build trust in business partners should be taken into account in regulating trade relationships and formulating export strategies through the capacity of Iran's membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Agricultural Export
  • Shanghai Cooperation Organization
  • Stochastic Frontier Gravity Model
  • Trade Potential

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