نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
عنوان مقاله English
نویسندگان English
Introduction: The relationship between sustained economic growth and environmental sustainability has posed significant challenges for several decades. This ongoing discourse has led to the formulation of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis, which posits an inverse U-shaped correlation between economic development and environmental quality. Specifically, it suggests that at lower levels of per capita income, environmental conditions tend to deteriorate, whereas beyond a certain income threshold, improvements in environmental quality are observed. A significant challenge lies in the identification and incorporation of suitable variables for assessing environmental quality. Numerous studies have utilized atmosphere quality indicators, such as air pollution levels and carbon footprints, to explore the relationship between economic growth and environmental quality. Thus, this study employed, in addition to carbon dioxide, the ecological footprint and the ecological deficit as key indicators of environmental quality in Iran. This study aimed at investigating the relationship between specific environmental variables and various influencing factors, including income, in order to assess the validity of the EKC hypothesis.
Materials and Methods: The literature indicates that various factors contribute to environmental quality. To achieve the most parsimonious specification, the study employed Group Method of Data Handling (GMDH) approach. The analysis of the literature indicated that output composition, urbanization, energy consumption, agricultural value added, GDP, and trade openness might serve as potential factors influencing environmental quality. In addition, concerning the stationarity of the variables’ data, the Auto-Regressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) model was utilized, as it was determined that some of the variables’ data exhibited stationarity at their first differenced values.
Results and Discussion: The results obtained from GMDH approach identified energy consumption, agricultural value added, GDP, and trade openness as significant determinants of environmental quality. The study results showed that the GMDH had the ability to accurately forecast environmental quality variables, particularly ecological deficit, with a high degree of precision; in addition, the EKC hypothesis was not validated for any of the specifications in the short term while it was confirmed for all specifications in the long run. Based on the results, it is anticipated that as GDP increases, the ecological footprint will improve; however, regarding carbon dioxide emissions and ecological deficits, the Iranian economy is currently in an ascending phase, which is likely to lead to a deterioration in environmental quality. An increase of one percent in trade openness is associated with a reduction in the ecological footprint ranging from 0.11 to 0.24 percent. Similarly, a one percent rise in energy consumption leads to an increase in carbon dioxide emissions, ecological footprint, and ecological deficit by 0.28, 0.75, and 0.72 percent, respectively. In contrast, a one percent increase in agricultural value-added correlates with increases of 0.13, 0.15, and 0.46 percent in the concerned environmental indicators, respectively.
Conclusion and Suggestions: The variables utilized to assess the environmental quality reveal a contrasting scenario with respect to the state of the environment. While the ecological footprint suggests a positive trend, CO2 emissions exhibit an increasing trajectory. Therefore, a more in-depth analysis of the environmental quality is suggested. It appears that the components of the ecological footprint, aside from carbon dioxide, are indicating more favorable trends. It is recommended that the policy measures focus on reducing energy consumption, promoting the use of renewable energy sources, and enhancing the Iranian economy's integration into international trade.
کلیدواژهها English