اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه

اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه

بررسی آثار درآمدهای نفتی بر فقر چند بعدی در مناطق روستایی ایران (رویکرد مدل خودرگرسیون برداری ساختاری SVAR)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان
1 استادیار علوم سیاسی، گروه علوم سیاسی، دانشکده حقوق، علوم سیاسی و زبان‌های خارجی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد مشهد، مشهد، ایران.
2 عضو هیأت علمی موسسه پژوهش های برنامه ریزی، اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه روستایی
3 دانش آموخته دکتری، گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران.
10.30490/aead.2026.367534.1697
چکیده
یکی از متغیرهای مهم اقتصادی که از آثار مبهمی بر فقر در کشورهای نفت‌خیز برخوردار است، درآمدهای نفتی می‌باشد. بطوری‌که برخی از اقتصاددانان بر این باورند که فراوانی منابع طبیعی (نفت) می‌تواند از طریق پرداخت‌های انتقالی به کاهش فقر کمک کند. لیکن، گروه دیگری بر این باورند که به دلیل وجود بیماری هلندی، در بسیاری از کشورهای در حال توسعه، افزایش شدت سرمایه طبیعی (نفت) به زیان سایر انواع سرمایه بویژه در بخش‌ها و مناطق کم‌برخوردارتر (مناطق روستایی) منجر شده و در نتیجه موجب افزایش فقر می‌شود. علاوه براین، بخش روستایی به‌دلیل تأمین امنیت غذایی از نقش مهمی در اقتصاد ملی برخوردار است. لذا در این مطالعه به بررسی آثار درآمدهای نفتی بر فقر چندبعدی در مناطق روستایی ایران پرداخته شد. برای این منظور، داده‌های تحقیق از بانک مرکزی، مرکز آمار ایران و مرکز پژوهش‌های مجلس شورای اسلامی طی دوره 1402-1385 گردآوری و سپس فصلی شد. همچنین، جهت تحلیل داده‌ها از مدل خودرگرسیون برداری ساختاری (SVAR) استفاده شد. نتایج نشان داد در طول دوره مورد بررسی، شاخص فقر چندبعدی در مناطق شهری، روستایی و کل کشور از روند کاهشی برخوردار بوده و استان‌های سیستان و بلوچستان و اصفهان به‌ترتیب از بیشترین و کمترین فقر چندبعدی برخوردار بوده‌اند. همچنین، درآمدهای نفتی تأثیر معنادار مستقیمی بر شاخص فقر چندبعدی روستایی در ایران دارد. بطوری‌که، با فرض ثابت بودن سایر شرایط، یک واحد افزایش در درآمد صادرات نفت، شاخص فقر چندبعدی روستایی را دوره اول، 173/0 واحد، در دوره دوم، 239/0 واحد و حداکثر در دوره سوم، 295/0 واحد افزایش می‌دهد.
کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله English

Investigating the Effects of Oil Revenues on Multidimensional Poverty of Iran’s Rural Regions (SVAR Approach)

نویسندگان English

Hamid Saeidi Javadi 1
Seyed Mohammad Fahimifard 2
fatemeh sakhi 3
1 Assistance Professor of Political Sciences, Department of Political Sciences, Faculty of Law, Political, Language, Islamic Azad University Mashhad Branch, Mashhad, Iran
2 Agricultural Planning Economic and Rural Development Research Institute (APERDRI)
3 PhD candidate, Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Economics and Agricultural Development, University of Tehran , Tehran, Iran.
چکیده English

Introduction: Today, in many countries, the multidimensional poverty index is officially and annually calculated. In this regard, the Research Center of the Islamic Consultative Assembly in 2023 designed a national multidimensional poverty index based on the Alkire-Foster method and in accordance with the prevailing conditions in Iran based on 5 main indicators of health, education, infrastructure, welfare facilities and housing. Also, one of the important economic variables that has ambiguous effects on poverty in oil-rich countries is oil revenues. Some economic researchers believe that the abundance of natural resources (oil) can help reduce poverty through transfer payments to the poor, increasing the poor's access to education, health care, etc. However, another group of researchers believe that due to the Dutch disease, in many developing countries, increasing the intensity of natural capital (oil) leads to the detriment of human capital, physical capital and financial capital, especially in less developed sectors and regions (rural areas), and as a result, causes poverty to increase. In addition, the rural sector of the country plays an important role in the national economy due to the provision of agricultural products and food security for the community. Therefore, this study examined the effects of oil revenues on multidimensional poverty in rural areas of Iran.

Materials and Methods: In order to achieve the research objectives, the required data were collected from the Central Bank, the Statistical Center of Iran, and the Islamic Parilament Research Center of Iran during the period 2006-2023 and then seasonalized. Finally, the structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model approach and Eviews software were used to analyze the data. The main advantage of the SVAR model compared to the initial VAR model is that unlike the VAR model in which structural impulses are implicitly identified, the SVAR model explicitly has an economic logic based on economic theories for applying restrictions.

Results and Discussion: The results showed that during the period under study, the multidimensional poverty index in urban, rural, and the entire country had a decreasing trend, and the provinces of Sistan and Baluchestan and Isfahan had the highest and lowest levels of multidimensional poverty, respectively. Also, oil revenues have a significant direct effect on the rural multidimensional poverty index in Iran. So, assuming that other conditions remain constant, a one-unit increase in oil export revenue increases the rural multidimensional poverty index in Iran by 0.173 units in the first period, 0.239 units in the second period, and a maximum of 0.295 units in the third period. Because due to Dutch disease in the Iranian economy, the increase in oil revenues leads to the loss of human capital, physical capital, and financial capital, especially in less-privileged sectors and regions, and as a result, it causes a decrease in economic growth and an increase in poverty, especially in rural areas.

Conclusion: Since the results of the study showed that due to Dutch disease in the Iranian economy, the revenues from the increase in income are distributed in a way that benefits the rich more and worsens the income distribution situation, and as a result, exacerbates the multidimensional poverty index, especially in rural areas, it is suggested that policymakers pay more attention to the distribution of benefits from oil revenues among different income groups, especially in rural areas. Also, it is suggested to the country's macroeconomic officials to allocate a share of the oil revenues saved in the National Development Fund to the development of rural areas in order to reduce multidimensional poverty in the country's rural areas. In addition, the weakness of infrastructure and welfare, educational and health services in areas far from the center is another cause of poverty and deprivation in the rural community of Iran. In other words, the remoteness of rural areas and the weakness of such infrastructure have led to greater backwardness, poverty and deprivation in these areas compared to areas closer to the center. Therefore, it is necessary for governments and policymakers to pay attention to these differences in future programs and provide the basis for removing such obstacles through the development and improvement of various infrastructures, including communication, education, health and welfare. Finally, it is suggested to the officials to pay attention to the specific characteristics of each region in order to eliminate poverty in rural communities. For example, given the impact of climatic characteristics on the severity of poverty in some areas such as Sistan and Baluchestan Province, it is necessary to consider programs and policies to improve resilience and adaptation to climate change, such as diversifying income sources through the development of value chains and the supply of agricultural and non-agricultural products, and promoting the use of renewable energy sources such as wind and solar energy in such areas.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Multidimensional poverty
oil revenues
rural areas
structural vector autoregressive(SVAR) model

مقالات آماده انتشار، پذیرفته شده
انتشار آنلاین از 30 فروردین 1405