نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسنده
دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد کشاورزی.دانشکده اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی دانشگاه تهران
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسنده [English]
Chicken is one of important inputs in hen production. Chicken price variability has effective role in inequality of hen demand and supply, so Chicken price is one of risk sources for hen producers. The aim of this study is providing suitable model for forecasting seasonal Chicken price in Iran. For this purpose, ECM and ARIMA model were applied for forecasting Chicken price. Results indicated that one-day Chicken price has high variability and this variability often is along hen price variability and results of causality and co-integration tests support this finding and show that there is one long-run relation between chicken and hen price and direction of causality is from hen price to chicken price. Also, result of ECM model show that 58 percent of chicken price shock from hen price adjusts per season. Forecasting error of ARIMA model is lower than ECM model, but comparison of errors and results indicated that both of them are suitable for chicken price forecasting. JEL Classification: C53
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