نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
عنوان مقاله [English]
Identifying the affecting major factors in the area planted to barley can be an effective means for achieving self-sufficiency in its production. Under theoretical principles, price policies are one of the most important factors in determining the area planted to barley. In this study, for specifying how farmers do form their expectations of barley price and consider it on decision to barley planting, the barley area response has been estimated using two price expectations models, adaptive and rational, over the years 1982 to 2004. It was found out that estimating the barley area function is preferred under this hypothesis that farmers adjust their expectations through adaptive expectations. According to the adaptive expectations model, farmers may not response in a way that will neutralize government policy, as it is expected, therefore the government can influence barley production trend through pursuing suitable policies. JEL Classification: D21, D84
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