براورد توابع عرضه و تقاضای صادرات خرمای ایران با استفاده از الگوی سیستم معادلات همزمان

  Dates are major non-oil exportable agri-crops in Iran with an outstanding historical background. The country enjoys a reputation for its dates export at global level and has maintained a 1st or 2nd rank in dates export globally. This survey aims at identification and assessment the impacts of effective factors contributing in dates export development, using theoretical principles in export supply and demand with focus on economic analyzing techniques. Moreover, calculating the elasticity of effective factors on dates export supply and demand, specially the elasticity of price and income, role of relative prices, importing countries income, exchange rate, world dates production and the like in dates export have been examined in this analysis. To estimate the export supply and demand functions, simultaneous equation system and time-series statistics of 1971-2003 were adopted from the Ministries of Agriculture and Commerce. Later, by using the unit-root test and Phillips-Perron, an analysis ran on cointegration of variables showing that the existing variables of the model are inter-related in long-term. The pattern of equations were revealed that in the export demand function, dummy variables as the width from the constant, relative price of dates for export, real exchange rate. The war dummy variables are all significant in effect. Besides, in the export supply function, certain variables as the width from the origin, export bulk, delayed export amount, local whole-sale price, local date’s production, delayed export value and the war dummy variable are of significant behavior and regarded as effective variables. Finally, the survey extended to calculate a short-run price elasticity for export demand equal to (-0.53) which is however, less than long-run price elasticity (-1.18). An estimate could also result in the value of 7.21 for short-run price elasticity in date export supply variable.