تحلیل واکنش رشد بخش کشاورزی به سرمایه‌گذاری دولت در بخش انرژی (رهیافت TVP)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 کارشناس ارشد اقتصاد انرژی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس

2 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس

3 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد ، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس

4 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس

چکیده

 با توجه به تأثیرگذاری سیاست‌های دولت بر رفتار متغیرهای کلان اقتصادی، در این پژوهش واکنش رشد بخش کشاورزی نسبت به سرمایه‌گذاری دولت در بخش انرژی طی سال های1392-1350 بررسی گردید. بدین منظور از رهیافت پارامتر متغیر در طول زمان به همراه نوسانات تصادفی (TVP) استفاده شد. نتایج حاصل از این پژوهش نشان داد که متغیرهای وقفه اول تغییرات ارزش افزوده در بخش کشاورزی، تغییرات اشتغال در بخش کشاورزی در سطح و وقفه اول، تغییرات سرمایه‌گذاری خصوصی در بخش کشاورزی و تغییرات سرمایه‌گذاری دولت در بخش انرژی به ترتیب بالاترین تأثیر را بر تغییرات ارزش افزوده بخش کشاورزی دارند. همچنین بر اساس نتایج پژوهش حاضر مشاهده شد ضرایب متغیرهای مؤثر بر تغییرات ارزش افزوده بخش کشاورزی در طی زمان در حال تغییر است، در نتیجه لازم است سیاست‌گذاران فعال در بخش کشاورزی با شناسایی عواملی که در هر دوره موجب کاهش تغییرات ارزش افزوده­ بخش مذکور می‌شوند، راهکارهایی خاص برای کاهش این نوسان‌ها اتخاذ و از سیاست‌گذاری کلی در این بخش خودداری کنند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Analyzing the Response of the Agricultural Sector’ Growth to Government Investment in the Energy Sector (Time Varying Parameter Approach)

نویسندگان [English]

  • R. Mohammadi Saber 1
  • abbas assari 2
  • lotfali agheli 3
  • ahmad rasuli 4
1 MA in Economics, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran
2 Associate Professor, Economic Development and Planning Department, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran
3 Associate Professor, Economic Research Institute, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran
4 PHD Student in Economics, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

Due to the impact of government policies on the behavior of macroeconomic variables, this study examines the response of the agricultural sector growth to the government investment in the energy sector over the period 1971-2013. To this end, Time Varying Parameter approach along with stochastic volatilities was used. The results showed that the first lags of changes in value-added of agricultural sector, the level and the first lags of changes in employment of agriculture, changes in private sector’ investment in agriculture and changes in government investment in energy sector have the highest impact on the value-added changes of the agricultural sector, respectively. In addition, the coefficients of variables affecting changes in agricultural sector value-added is varying over time, therefore policy-makers in agricultural sector should identify factors causing reduction in value-added of this sector, and present case-based solutions to decrease these fluctuations, and avoid general policy-making.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Employment
  • Energy Sector
  • Private Investment
  • Government
  • Agricultural Sector Growth

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