تحلیل آثار منطقه‌ای آزادسازی بازار گندم در ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 PhD in Agricultural Economics and General Director of Commerce Standards Bureau, Trade and Agricultural Industries Deputy, Ministry of Agriculture-Jahad,

2 استاد اقتصاد کشاورزی، گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشکده اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی، پردیس کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی دانشگاه تهران

چکیده

سیاست‌گذار به پیامدهای تغییر سیاست در بازار گندم بر امنیت غذایی و معیشتی جامعه حساس است. بازار گندم تحت تأثیر سیاست خرید تضمینی، سیاست غذای ارزان (یارانه مصرف‌کننده) و موانع غیرتعرفه‌ای (واردات دولتی) است. ایرادهای سیاست خرید تضمینی (ناکارایی تخصیص منابع، انحراف بازار و افزایش ضایعات ) به طور عام و فشار هزینه اجرای آن به طور خاص تمایل به تغییر سیاست‌های اجرایی در بازار گندم را افزایش داده است. در این مطالعه، آثار تغییر سیاست‌ها در بازار گندم برای 4 راه‌گزین منتخب  بررسی و تحلیل شده است. پژوهش با الگوی برنامه‌ریزی ریاضی مثبت منطقه‌ای و داده‌های سال زراعی 93-1392 برای 8 پهنه زراعی – اکولوژیک انجام شده است. یافته‌های مطالعه نشان دهنده اهمیت سیاست تجاری مکمل برای بازار گندم است. اجرای راه‌گزین حذف یارانه مصرف‌کننده و آزادسازی تجاری در حضور سیاست خرید تضمینی آثار منفی کمتری ایجاد می‌کند، اما احتمال فروش گندم وارداتی به دولت را افزایش می‌دهد. حذف سیاست خرید تضمینی بدون آزادسازی تجاری، زیان رفاهی برای تولیدکننده و مصرف‌کننده ایجاد می‌کند. آزادسازی کامل بازار گندم و پرداخت مستقیم به هر دو گروه باعث کاهش هزینه دولت، مقدار مصرف و ضایعات گندم می‌شود، اما برای جلوگیری از کاهش زیاد قیمت‌های داخلی و افزایش هزینه بودجه‌ای دولت باید با سطح مشخصی از حمایت تجاری اجرایی شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Analysis of Regional Effects of Wheat Market Liberalization in Iran

نویسندگان [English]

  • Valiolah Faryadras 1
  • S.S. Hosseini 2
  • H. Salami 2
  • S. Yazdani 2
1 PhD in Agricultural Economics and General Director of Commerce Standards Bureau, Trade and Agricultural Industries Deputy, Ministry of Agriculture-Jahad,
2 Professor of Agricultural Economics, Department of Agricultural Economic, Faculty of Agricultural Economic and Development, Collage of Agricultural & Natural Resources, Tehran University, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

The policymaker is sensitive to the consequences of the policy change in the wheat market on food security and livelihood of the community. Wheat market is covered by a guaranteed purchasing policy, cheap food policy (consumer subsidy), and non-tariff barriers (imports by government). Guaranteed purchase policy issues (the inefficiency of resource allocation, market diversion and increased waste) in general and the cost of its implementation have increased the tendency to change the executive policy in the wheat market.  In this study, the effects of changing the policies in the wheat market for the four selected alternatives were been analyzed. The research was carried out using a positive regional mathematical programming model and data for the 2013-2014 crop year for 8 agro-ecological zones. The findings of the study indicate the importance of complementary trade policy for wheat markets. Implementing the scenario to eliminating consumer subsidies and commercial liberalization in the presence of a guaranteed purchasing policy will have less negative effects, but will increase the likelihood of the sale of imported wheat to the government. The removal of guaranteed purchasing policy without trade liberalization creates welfare losses for both the producer and the consumer. Full liberalization of the wheat market and direct payments to both groups will reduce government costs, consumption and wheat waste, but in order to prevent a significant drop in domestic prices and rising government spending costs, it should implement with a certain level of commercial support.

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