آثار افزایش قیمت حامل‌های انرژی بر مقدار تولید گندم در استان فارس: کاربرد تابع تولید غیرمستقیم

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری بخش اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه شیراز

2 استاد بخش اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه شیراز

چکیده

در این مطالعه پس از جمع­آوری داده­های مقطعی سال زراعی 94- 1393 از 201 تولیدکننده گندم آبی در منطقه فسا به روش نمونه­گیری تصادفی خوشه­ای چند­مرحله­ای، آثار افزایش قیمت حامل­های انرژی بر میزان تولید گندم بررسی شد. برای محاسبه کاهش تولید گندم براثر افزایش قیمت حامل‌های انرژی، با برآورد تابع هزینه ترانسلوگ و استفاده از روابط موجود بین سهم نهاده­ها و تابع تولید غیرمستقیم، کشش تولید نسبت به قیمت نهاده برآورد شد. نتایج نشان داد با افزایش 100 درصدی قیمت گازوئیل و برق مقدار تولید گندم به ترتیب 38/4 و 12/23 درصد در هر هکتار کاهش می‌یابد، لذا افزایش قیمت برق در مقایسه با نهاده گازوئیل، آثار محسوس­تری بر کاهش تولید گندم دارد. بنابراین، پیشنهاد می­شود اعمال این سیاست بر نهاده برق با احتیاط بیشتر و برنامه­ریزی­های دقیق­تری­ صورت گیرد. از طرفی نظر به نقش مؤثر گندم در اقتصاد کشور باید با سازوکارهای مناسب از تولید این محصول حمایت شود. با توجه به وجود ویژگی بازده نسبت به مقیاس صعودی تولید گندم در استان فارس دولت می‏تواند با اعطای اعتبارات به تولید گندم زمینه پذیرش تغییر فناوری تولید برای مصرف بهینه حامل­های انرژی جهت کاهش هزینه­ها و حفظ تولید گندم را فراهم سازد. در نهایت، با توجه به راهبردی بودن محصول گندم و وجود تعداد زیاد تولیدکنندگان این محصول پیشنهاد می‌شود که دولت در سطح خرد برای کاهش ریسک تولیدکنندگان گندم از آنها حمایت کند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

The Effects of Increase in Energy Carrier Prices on Wheat Production in Fars province: Application of Indirect Production Function

نویسندگان [English]

  • hassan azarm 1
  • M. Bakhshoodeh 2
1 . Ph.D. Student, Department of Agricultural Economics, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran
2 Professor of Agricultural Economics, Department of Agricultural Economics, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran
چکیده [English]

In this study the effects of increase in energy carrier prices on wheat product in Fasa county of Fars province was investigated. Data were collected from 201 irrigated wheat producers in 2014-15 applying multistage random cluster sampling. In order to calculate the reduction of wheat production due to the increase in energy prices, output elasticity with respect to input prices was calculated by estimating translog cost function and using relationship between the share of input and indirect production function. The results indicated that a 100 percent increase in the price of gas oil and electricity, wheat production reduces by 4.38 and 23.12 percent per hectare, respectively. The increase in electricity prices compared to gas oil has more significant effects on reducing the production of wheat. Therefore, it is suggested this policy be applied to the electricity with more caution and more precise planning. On the other hand, considering the significant role of wheat in the country economy, the production of this product should be supported by proper mechanisms. With increasing returns to scale of wheat production in Fars province, the government can grant credits to provide conditions for farmers to adopt technology change for optimizing consumption of energy in order to reduce costs and keep producing of wheat provide. Finally, with regard to the strategic nature of wheat and the large number of producers, it is suggested that the government support them at micro level to reduce the risk of wheat producers.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Energy Carriers
  • Translog Cost Function
  • Indirect Production Function
  • Share of Input Cost
  • Returns to Scale

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