بهینه‌یابی الگوی کشت محصولات زراعی شهرستان ری با توجه به مخاطره

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانش‌آموختة کارشناسی ارشد اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی گرگان، گرگان، ایران.

2 نویسنده مسئول و دانشیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی گرگان، گرگان، ایران.

3 استادیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی گرگان، گرگان، ایران

4 استادیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی گرگان، گرگان، ایران.

چکیده

در مطالعة حاضر، الگوی بهینة کشت محصولات زراعی شهرستان ری با استفاده از مدل برنامه‌ریزی خطی (متعارف) و همچنین، با لحاظ درجات مختلف مخاطره با استفاده از مدل‌های مخاطره‏ای موتاد، تارگت موتاد و موتاد پیشرفته تعیین شد. داده­های مورد نیاز به روش میدانی و از طریق تکمیل 149 پرسشنامه از بهره‌برداران شهرستان ری و آمار و اطلاعات مدیریت جهاد کشاورزی، سازمان و ادارات ذی‏ربط در این شهرستان طی پنج سال زراعی 1389 تا 1394 جمع­آوری شد. نتایج حاصل از مدل برنامه‌ریزی خطی نشان داد که در مقایسه با وضعیت فعلی، به‏کارگیری الگوی بهینه کشت بازده برنامه‌ای را 6/69 درصد افزایش می‌دهد. همچنین نتایج حاصل از برآورد مدل­های مخاطره‏ای مؤید آن بود که بین مخاطره و بازده برنامه‌ای رابطة مثبت وجود دارد؛ علاوه بر این، مدل‌های مخاطره‏ای در بالاترین سطح مخاطره، نتایجی مشابه با برنامه‌ریزی خطی دارند و الگوی ارائه‏شده از طریق مدل برنامه‌ریزی خطی در بالاترین حد ممکن از مخاطره است.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Optimization of Cropping Pattern Regarding Risk in Rey County of Iran

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mohammad Bahadori 1
  • Ramtin Joolaie 2
  • Farshid Eshraghi 3
  • Azam rezaee 4
1 MSc Graduate in Agricultural Economics, Gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources, Gorgan, Iran
2 Associate Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics, Gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources, Gorgan, Iran
3 Assistant Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics, Gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources, Gorgan, Iran
4 Assistant Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics, Gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources, Gorgan, Iran
چکیده [English]

In this study, the optimum cropping pattern in Rey County of Iran was determined using Linear Programming model (conventional), considering various degrees of risk using risk models of MOTAD, Target MOTAD and Advanced MOTAD. The required data were collected through field study and filling out 149 questionnaires from beneficiaries of the county as well as the concerned Agricultural-Jehad Management and subordinate organizations and offices in five farming years of 2010-15. The results from linear programming model showed that compared to the present status, applying the optimized cropping pattern made 6.69 percent increase in programmed output. Also, the results from estimation of risky models suggested that there was a positive relationship between risk and the farm’s programmed output. Again, risky models in highest possible level of risk indicated results similar to those of linear programming, and the pattern presented by linear model was placed at maximum possible level of risk.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Optimum Cropping Pattern
  • Linear programming
  • risk
  • Rey (County)
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