ارزیابی آثار منطقه‌ای سیاست قیمت تضمینی گندم ایران

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشیار اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران.

2 دانش ‏آموخته کارشناسی ارشد اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران

3 دانشیار اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران.

چکیده

در مطالعة حاضر، با استفاده از الگوی تعادل فضایی قیمت‌ها، آثار اتخاذ سیاست قیمت تضمینی در بازار محصول گندم در سطوح استانی و کشوری بررسی شد. نتایج نشان داد که افزایش ده تا پنجاه درصدی قیمت تضمینی گندم طی پنج سناریو به افزایش 68/1 تا 11/8 درصدی عرضه و 109 تا 555 درصدی مازاد رفاه تولیدکنندگان می‌انجامد و مخارج دولت را نیز به میزان هجده تا 88 درصد افزایش می‌دهد. تغییرات یادشده، در نهایت، موجب کاهش رفاه اجتماعی به میزان 51 تا 228 درصد می‌شود، که نمایانگر عدم کارآیی این ابزار حمایتی در راستای افزایش رفاه جامعه است. همچنین، بر اساس نتایج تحقیق، می‌توان دریافت که ساختار بازار گندم در استان‌های کشور و در نتیجه، حساسیت استان‌ها نسبت به افزایش قیمت تضمینی در زمینة تمامی شاخص‌های رفاهی و بازاری متفاوت است. از این‏رو، سیاست قیمت تضمینی با تعیین قیمت یکسان بین استان‌ها از کارآیی مناسب برخوردار نخواهد بود و لازم است در هر استان، قیمت تضمینی با توجه به کشش تولید تعیین شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Assessing the regional impacts of Iranian wheat support price policies

نویسندگان [English]

  • S.H. Mousavi 1
  • I. Feyzi 2
  • S. Khalilian 3
1 Associate Professor of Agricultural Economics, Tarbiat Modarres University, Tehran, Iran
2 MSc Graduate in Agricultural Economics, Tarbiat Modarres University, Tehran, Iran.
3 Associate Professor of Agricultural Economics, Tarbiat Modarres University, Tehran, Iran.
چکیده [English]

This study aimed at evaluating the regional and countrywide impacts of wheat support price regimes, using spatial price equilibrium model. The study results showed that increasing support price from 10 to 50 percent in five scenarios would lead to the increase in supply quantity by 1.68-8.1 percent and producer welfare by 109-555 percent as well as an increase in government outlay by 18-88 percent; in addition, these policies would decrease social welfare in the range of 51 to 228 percent, indicating the inefficiency of this policy approach. Also, the results revealed that provincial markets had different reactions to these policies in their mean prices, quantities and welfare changes. Therefore, adopting the same guaranteed price policies for wheat would not have suitable supportive effects across regions and the unique support price among provinces would be inefficient, rather these policies should be imposed relative to regional production elasticity’s.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Social welfare
  • Support Price
  • Wheat
  • Spatial Equilibrium Model (SEM)
  • Iran (Provinces)
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