بررسی عوامل مؤثر بر قیمت آرد و نان در صورت اجرای سیاست آزادسازی قیمت‏ها در این حوزه

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، مشهد، ایران.

2 استاد گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، مشهد، ایران

3 دانشیار اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، مشهد، ایران.

4 دانش‏ آموخته کارشناسی ارشد اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، مشهد، ایران

5 کارشناس سازمان امور مالیاتی استان خراسان رضوی، مشهد، ایران

چکیده

با در نظر گرفتن این واقعیت که اجرای سیاست آزادسازی قیمت در حوزه آرد و نان از مهم‏ترین موضوعاتی است که باید در اجرای قانون هدفمندی یارانه‏ ها مورد توجه قرار گیرد، هدف مطالعة حاضر شناسایی و اولویت‏بندی مهم‏ترین عوامل مؤثر بر قیمت آرد و نان در صورت اجرای سیاست آزادسازی قیمت در این حوزه بود. بدین منظور، ضمن استفاده از دو روش تحلیل سلسله‏ مراتبی و تحلیل سلسله ‏مراتبی فازی، نتایج دو روش با هم مقایسه شد. اطلاعات مورد نیاز در سال 1392 از طریق مصاحبه حضوری با هفت نفر از کارشناسان و خبرگان فعال در حوزه آرد و نان و تکمیل پرسشنامه گردآوری شد. نتایج مطالعه حاکی از نامعتبر بودن نتایج روش تحلیل سلسله‏ مراتبی فازی و تأیید اعتبار نتایج روش تحلیل سلسله ‏مراتبی بود. علاوه بر این، نتایج روش تحلیل سلسله‏ مراتبی نشان داد که مهم‏ترین عوامل مؤثر بر قیمت آرد، قیمت گندم داخلی و پس از آن، قیمت جهانی گندم و میزان صادرات است؛ همچنین، قیمت آرد، دستمزد نیروی کار و هزینه سوخت به ‏ترتیب مهم‏ترین عوامل مؤثر در قیمت نان ارزیابی شدند. از این‏رو، با توجه به تأثیرپذیری شدید قیمت نان از قیمت گندم پس از آزادسازی قیمت‏های آرد و نان، ایجاد ثبات در بازار گندم از طریق عملیات تنظیم بازار و در این راه، بازبینی جدی در قانون خرید تضمینی گندم اجتناب ‏ناپذیر می‏ نماید.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

An Investigation on Influencing Factors of Bread and Flour Prices under the Assumption of Concerned Free Market Price Policy in Iran

نویسندگان [English]

  • L. Abolhassani 1
  • N. Shahnoushi 2
  • A. Dourandish 3
  • H. Taherpour 4
  • A. Ghaffari 5
1 Associate Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran.
2 Professor of Agricultural Economics, Department of Agricultural Economics, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran
3 Associate Professor of Agricultural Economics, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran
4 MSc. Graduate in Agricultural Economics, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran.
5 Expert of Tax Administration of Khorasan Razavi Province, Mashhad, Iran.
چکیده [English]

Given the importance of pursuing a policy of free-market prices in bread and flour markets within Iran’s subsidies reform, this study aimed at recognizing and prioritizing the most important factors affecting the bread and flour prices under such an assumed situation using AHP and FAHP methods and comparing the results. The required data were gathered in 2013 through questionnaires and interviews with seven experts who had been active in government offices as well as the bread and flour producers. Unlike the FAHP results, the AHP results were proven to be valid. Furthermore, the AHP results indicated that the most important contributing factors of flour prices would be domestic wheat prices, international wheat prices plus export volume, respectively; in addition, bread prices would be influenced firstly by flour prices and then by wages and fuel costs, respectively. Therefore, since following the implementation of free-market price policy in bread and flour markets, the bread prices might be significantly influenced by the wheat ‎prices, it would be inevitable to build up a stable wheat market through a market regulation mechanism and to make a careful reconsideration ‎of wheat guaranteed prices in this respect. ‎

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Bread Price
  • Flour Price
  • Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process (FAHP) Model
  • AHP Model

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