اثر متغیرهای آب‏ وهوایی بر احتمال تصمیم به کشت و عملکرد محصول نخود در ایران: کاربرد مدل هکمن فضایی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استاد گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه تبریز، ایران

2 دانش‏ آموخنه دکتری گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه تبریز، ایران

3 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه تبریز، ایران

چکیده

حبوبات، به ‏عنوان دومین منبع مهم غذایی پس از غلات، حدود 770 هزار هکتار سطح زیر کشت محصولات سالانه زراعی ایران را به خود اختصاص داده است. حدود 3/61 درصد از سطح زیر کشت حبوبات به محصول نخود اختصاص داشته که از این میزان، 4/97 درصد سطح زیر کشت به ‏صورت دیم است. با توجه به سهم بالای سطح زیر کشت دیم، انتظار می­ رود که تغییرات آب‏ وهوا تأثیر فراوانی بر عملکرد محصول نخود داشته باشد. هدف مطالعه حاضر بررسی نحوه اثرگذاری تغییرات آب ‏وهوا بر احتمال تصمیم به کشت و عملکرد محصول نخود با به‏ کارگیری مدل هکمن فضایی بود. برآورد این مدل با به‏ کارگیری اطلاعات زراعی محصول نخود و اطلاعات هواشناسی و جغرافیایی 336 شهرستان کشور در سال زراعی 92-1391 صورت گرفت. بر پایة یافته­ های پژوهش، مجاورت فضایی، شاخص تأثیر انسانی و سرعت باد از جمله عوامل مؤثر بر احتمال تصمیم به کشت محصول نخود و مجاورت فضایی، سرعت باد، بارش و آبیاری از مهم‏ترین عوامل مؤثر بر عملکرد این محصول بودند. از این‏ رو، تولید ارقام محصول نخود مقاوم به کم ‏آبی و توجه بیشتر به مدیریت منابع آبی و به‏ کارگیری روش­های حفظ و ذخیره ­سازی کارآمد آب در مناطق تولید این محصول از قبیل استان­های کرمانشاه، لرستان، کردستان و آذربایجان غربی پیشنهاد می ­شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

The Effect of Climatic Variables on Probability of Pea Cultivating Decision and Its Yield in Iran: Application of Spatial Heckman Model

نویسندگان [English]

  • Gh. Dashti 1
  • Kh. Alefi 2
  • M. Ghahremanzadeh 3
1 Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Tabriz, Iran
2 PhD Graduate, Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Tabriz, Iran
3 Associate Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Tabriz, Iran
چکیده [English]

Legumes, as the second most important source of food after grains, account for 770,000 hectares of annual crops cultivation area in Iran. About 61.3 percent of the legumes cultivation area was allocated to the pea production, some 97.7 percent of which included the rainfed legumes. Given the high contribution of rainfed cultivation, it is expected that climate change will have a major impact on the yield of pea. So, this study aimed at investigating the effect of climate change on the probability of deciding to cultivate pea product and its yield using the spatial Heckman model. The model was estimated by using agronomic data of pea and meteorological and geographical information of 336 counties of the country during 2012-2013. According to the study findings, spatial contiguity, human influence index and wind speed affected the probability of deciding to cultivate the pea plant, and the spatial contiguity, wind speed, precipitation and irrigation were the most important factors affecting the pea yield. Therefore, production of drought resistant varieties of chickpea as well as more attention to the management of water resources and application of efficient water storage methods in the production areas of this product such as Kermanshah, Lorestan, Kordestan and West Azarbayjan provinces were recommended.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Probability of Decision
  • Cultivation
  • Pea
  • Climate Change
  • Yield
  • Spatial Heckman Model

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