برآورد شکاف تولید بخش کشاورزی و تأثیر آن بر نرخ تورم در مناطق روستایی ایران: نقدی بر نظریه‏ های لوکاس

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد منابع طبیعی و محیط زیست، گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان، ایران.

2 دانشیار اقتصاد کشاورزی، گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان، ایران.

3 استاد اقتصاد کشاورزی، گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکدة کشاورزی، دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان، ایران

چکیده

از آنجا که سهم شاغلان مناطق روستایی در بخش کشاورزی بیش از بخش­های خدمات و صنعت است، با شناسایی و تبیین ارتباط بین شکاف تولید بخش کشاورزی و تورم در مناطق روستایی، می­توان به تصمیم ­گیری­های اقتصادی در مورد این مناطق کمک کرد. از این‏رو، هدف مطالعة حاضر برآورد شکاف تولید بخش کشاورزی و تأثیر آن بر نرخ تورم در مناطق روستایی ایران از نگاه منحنی فیلیپس کلاسیک­های جدید و برای دورة زمانی 92-1365 بود. بدین منظور، از روش­ خودتوضیح با وقفة توزیعی (ARDL) استفاده شد. نتایج نشان داد که نظریه­ های انتظارات عقلایی و خنثایی پول لوکاس برای مناطق روستایی ایران قابل پذیرش نیست؛ به دیگر سخن، در کوتا­ه ­مدت و بلندمدت، تأثیر سیاست­های پولی بر تورم، اشتغال و شکاف تولید در مناطق روستایی ایران مثبت است؛ همچنین، در مناطق روستایی ایران، منحنی فیلیپس در کوتاه ­مدت و بلندمدت معنی­دار و نزولی بوده و بنابراین، رابطة تورم و بیکاری منفی و اما رابطة تورم و شکاف تولید مثبت است. نتایج تحقیق حاکی از این بود که تورم مناطق روستایی صرفاً یک پدیده پولی نیست و متغیر حقیقی شکاف تولید بخش کشاورزی نیز بر آن تأثیر می­ گذارد. بنابراین، برای کنترل تورم مناطق روستایی، باید علاوه بر سیاست­های پولی، بخش­های واقعی نیز مورد توجه قرار گیرد.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Estimating the Production Gap of Agricultural Sector and Its Impact on Inflation Rate in Rural Areas of Iran: Criticism of Lucas's Theories

نویسندگان [English]

  • M. R. Rezaeefar 1
  • M. R. Zare Mehrjerdi 2
  • H. Mehrabi Boshrabadi 3
1 PhD Student in Economics of Natural Resources and Environment, Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Kerman University of Shahid Bahonar, Kerman, Iran
2 Associate Professor of Agricultural Economics, Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Kerman University of Shahid Bahonar, Kerman, Iran
3 Professor of Agricultural Economics, Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Kerman University of Shahid Bahonar, Kerman, Iran
چکیده [English]

Since the share of agricultural sector's employment in rural areas is more than those of services and industry sectors, identifying and explaining the relationship between production gap of agricultural sector and inflation in rural areas can contribute to the economic decisions in these areas. Therefore, this study aimed at estimating the production gap of agricultural sector and its impact on inflation rate in rural areas of Iran during 1986-2013 in neoclassical Phillips curve perspective. For this purpose, Auto Regressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) method was used. The results showed that the neutral money and rational expectations theories of Lucas were unacceptable for the rural areas of Iran. In other words, the impact of monetary policies on inflation, employment and production gap in these areas was positive in both short and long terms; in addition, the Phillips curve in these areas was significantly descending in either short or long terms, indicating a negative relationship between inflation and unemployment in the rural areas of Iran but a positive relationship between inflation and production gap in these areas. The study results indicated that the inflation in rural areas was not simply a monetary phenomenon and it was also affected by the real variable of production gap of agricultural sector. So, in addition to the monetary policies, the actual sectors should be considered in inflation control of rural areas.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Neutral Money
  • Rural Potential Production
  • Neoclassic Thinkers
  • Inflation
  • Unemployment
  • Iran
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