محاسبه درجه ریسک ‏گریزی با استفاده از روش تحلیل تصمیم ‏گیری چندمعیاره: مطالعه موردی کشاورزان منطقه گهرباران ساری

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری، ایران

2 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری، ایران

چکیده

با توجه به اهمیت آگاهی از رفتار مخاطره ‏آمیز کشاورزان برای سیاست­گذاری مفید در بخش کشاورزی، در مطالعه حاضر، با استفاده از روش تحلیل تصمیم  ­گیری چندمعیاره، درجه ریسک­ گریزی مطلق کشاورزان در گهرباران ساری تعیین شد و سپس، رابطة آن با خصوصیات اقتصادی- اجتماعی کشاورزان مورد مطالعه قرار گرفت. داده­ های مورد نیاز از طریق پرسشنامه و مصاحبه حضوری با 250 کشاورز منطقه مورد مطالعه جمع­ آوری شد. نتایج مطالعه نشان داد که اکثر کشاورزان در طبقه ریسک­ گریزی زیاد جای می­گیرند و از میان خصوصیات اقتصادی- اجتماعی کشاورزان (نظیر سن، تحصیلات، مساحت زمین، تعداد اعضای خانواده، درآمد زراعی، سهم فعالیت زراعی از کل درآمد، مالکیت زمین، وام و تجربه کشاورزی)، متغیرهای درآمد زراعی، سهم فعالیت زراعی از کل درآمد و تعداد اعضای خانواده رابطه مثبت و متغیرهای مساحت زمین و وام رابطه منفی با درجه ریسک­ گریزی مطلق کشاورزان دارند. از آنجا که درجه ریسک ­گریزی بیشتر کشاورزان نماینده بالا بود، بحث مدیریت ریسک بسیار حائز اهمیت می­نماید. اقداماتی مانند کشت اشتراکی، تنوع تولید، کنترل جمعیت از سوی کشاورز و راهکارهایی همچون گسترش تعاونی­ها، گسترش اعتبارات، قیمت تضمینی، بیمه و راه­ اندازی و توسعه بازارهای آتی از سوی سیاست­گذاران از جمله پیشنهادهای مطالعة حاضر بود.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Determining the Degree of Risk Aversion Using Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Analysis: A Case Study of Farmers in Goharbaran Region of Sari

نویسندگان [English]

  • Tahereh Ranjbar Malekshah 1
  • Seyed-Ali Hosseini-Yekani 2
  • Seyed-Mojtaba Mojaverian 2
1 . PhD Student in Agricultural Economics, Sari Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University, Sari, Iran
2 Associate Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics, Sari Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University, Sari
چکیده [English]

Given the importance of understanding the agricultural risk behavior for useful policy making in agriculture, this study aimed at determining the degree of absolute risk aversion of farmers in Goharbaran region of Sari County in Iran using multi criteria decision making (MCDM) analysis. Then, the relation between the degree of risk aversion of the farmers and their socio-economic characteristics were investigated. Required data were collected through questionnaires and interviews with 250 farmers in 2014. The study results showed that majority of the farmers belonged to the group with high level of risk averse; and among their effective socio-economic characteristics (including age, education, farm size, family size, agricultural income, percentage of income from farming, land ownership, farming experience and loan), the variables of agricultural income, percentage of income from farming and family size were positively and farm size and loan negatively correlated with the absolute degree of risk aversion of the farmers. Considering the high degree of risk aversion among majority of the studied farmers, the risk management would seem to be highly important. Therefore, a number of measures like common cultivation, product diversification and population control by the farmers themselves and strategies such as development of cooperatives, credit expansion, guaranteed prices, insurance and establishment and development of futures markets by policy makers were suggested.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Multi Criteria Decision Making (MCDM)
  • Socio-Economic Characteristics
  • Absolute Risk Aversion
  • Farmers
  • Goharbaran Region of Sari
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