اثر تغییر اقلیم بر ارزش افزوده کشاورزی ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه شیراز، شیراز، ایران

2 استادیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه شیراز، شیراز، ایران

چکیده

در دهه­ های آینده، تغییر اقلیم به‏ ­ویژه بخش کشاورزی کشورهای در حال توسعه را با پیامدهای زیان ­بار مواجه خواهد کرد. با توجه به اهمیت این پیامدها، مطالعه حاضر با هدف تحلیل اثر متغیرهای اقلیمی بر ارزش افزوده بخش ­کشاورزی ایران صورت گرفت؛ و بدین منظور، از داده­ های پنل استانی برای دوره 1385 تا 1395 بهره گرفته شد. ارزیابی اثر تغییر اقلیم بر ارزش افزوده با بهره‏ گیری از دو متغیر دما و بارندگی به انجام رسید و سایر متغیرهای مؤثر بر ارزش افزوده بخش کشاورزی شامل نیروی کار، سرمایة مادی (زمین، موجودی دام و موجودی تجهیزات آبیاری)، سرمایه انسانی به ­صورت تعداد دانش ­آموختگان، سرمایه اجتماعی به ‏صورت تعداد خط تلفن روستایی و شاخص تجارت بودند. تجارت با استفاده از دو متغیر سرمایه ­گذاری مستقیم خارجی و شاخص باز بودن تجارت لحاظ شد. بر اساس نتایج مطالعه، مشخص شد که به ‏طور عمد، نوسان‏ها یا اختلاف از میانگین متغیرهای دما و بارندگی بر تولید بخش­ کشاورزی اثر معنی ­دار دارد، به ‏گونه ‏ای که انتظار می­رود یک درجه افزایش دما نسبت به میانگین آن پنج درصد کاهش تولید را به ‏همراه داشته باشد؛ همچنین، یک درصد کاهش در بارندگی 3/0 درصد کاهش تولید را رقم خواهد زد. از میان متغیرهای سرمایه، سرمایه مادی به‏ عنوان مهم­ترین متغیر مساعدت‏ کننده به تولید شناخته شد. کشش تولید نسبت به سرمایه اجتماعی در سطحی بالاتر از سرمایه انسانی و در محدوده 18/0-17/0 ارزیابی شد. اثر سرمایه ‏گذاری خارجی فاقد اهمیت آماری بود، اما اثر منفی شاخص باز بودن در بخش کشاورزی احراز شد. با توجه به اثر منفی تغییر اقلیم بر ارزش افزوده بخش کشاورزی، افزایش بهره ­وری استفاده از آب، یافتن ارقام با نیاز آبی پایین و سازگار با شرایط کم ­آبی و خشکسالی و کاهش ضایعات آب توصیه می­شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Climate change impact on agriculture value added

نویسندگان [English]

  • Zahra Malakootikhah 1
  • Zakariya Farajzadeh 2
1 MSc Student in Agricultural Economics, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran
2 Assistant Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics, Shiraz University, Shiraz, ,Iran
چکیده [English]

There are obvious evidences showing that climate change will affect adversely the agriculture sector especially those of the developing nations in coming decades. Regarding the climate change effects on the agriculture sector; this study aims to examine the impact of climatic variables on the Iranian agriculture value added. To get the study objective, provincial panel data over 2006-2016 was applied. Temperature and precipitation were applied to examine the effect climate change on agriculture value added. The remaining variables affecting agriculture value added are labor, physical capital including land, livestock and irrigation equipment, human capital measured as the number of the university graduated population, social capital represented by phone lines in rural area and trade index. Trade impact was also investigated using Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and trade openness variables. Based on the results, the climatic variables’ fluctuations or deviations from their average found to have more significant impact. One degree increase in temperature beyond its long term average is expected to induce a reduction of 5% in agriculture production while the corresponding value for 1% reduction in precipitation is 0.3%. Among the capital variables, physical capital has the highest contribution to agriculture production. Production elasticity with respect to social capital exceeds those of human capital, ranging from 0.17 to 0.18. FDI showed an insignificant effect; however, trade openness was found to affect adversely.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Climate change
  • temperature
  • precipitation
  • Capital
  • Agriculture Sector
  1. Abbaspour, K.C., Faramarzi, M., Ghasemi, S.S. and Yang, H. (2009). Assessing the impact of climate change on water resources in Iran. Water Resources Research, 45(10): 1-16.
  2. Abraha, M.G. and Savage, M.J. (2006). Potential impacts of climate change on the grain yield of maize for the midlands of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment, 115(1-4): 150-160.
  3. Aghaei, M., Rezagholizadeh, M. and Bagheri, F. (2013). The effect of human capital on economic growth: the case of Iran’s provinces. Research and Planning in Higher Education, 19(1): 21-44. (Persian)
  4. Aghapour Sabbaghi, M. (2015). The survey of production efficiency and agriculture’s attitude toward risk effects of product insurance: case study of Dezful County tomato growers. Journal of Agricultural Economics Research, 27: 91-108. (Persian)
  5. Agovino, M., Casaccia, M., Ciommi, M., Ferrara, M. and Marchesano, K. (2018). Agriculture, climate change and sustainability: (the case of EU-28). Ecological Indicators, 118: 1-19.
  6. Akram, N. (2012). Is climate change hindering economic growth of Asian economies? Asia-Pacific Development Journal, 19(2): 1-18.
  7. Bachelet, D. and Gay, C.A. (1993). The impacts of climate change on rice yield: a comparison of four model performances. Ecological Modelling, 65(1-2): 71-93.
  8. Bachewe, F.N., Berhane, G., Minten, B. and Taffesse, A.S. (2017). Agricultural transformation in Africa? Assessing the evidence in Ethiopia. World Development,105: 286-298.
  9. Baltagi, B.H. (2008). Econometrics. Fourth Edition. Berlin: Springer.
  10. Borrego-Marín, M.M., Gutiérrez-Martín, C. and Berbel, J. (2016). Water productivity under drought conditions estimated using SEEA-Water. Water, 8(138): 1-13.
  11. Calzadilla, A., Zhu, T., Rehdanz, K., Tol, R.S. and Ringler, C. (2013). Economy-wide impacts of climate change on agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa. Ecological Economics, 93: 150-165.
  12. CBI (2014). Economic time series database. Tehran: Central Bank of Iran (CBI). Available at http://tsd.cbi.ir/Display/Content.aspx. (Persian)
  13. Challinor, A.J., Koehler, A.K., Ramirez-Villegas, J., Whitfield, S. and Das, B. (2016). Current warming will reduce yields unless maize breeding and seed systems adapt immediately. Nature Climate Change, 6(10): 954-958.
  14. Chang, C.C. (2002). The potential impact of climate change on Taiwan’s agriculture. Agricultural Economics, 27(1): 51-64.
  15. Chen, S., Chen, X. and Xu, J. (2016). Impacts of climate change on agriculture: evidence from China. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 76: 105-124.
  16. Cline, W.R. (2007). Global warming and agriculture: impact estimates by country. Washington DC: Center for Global Development and Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  17. Deschenes, O. and Greenstone, M. (2006). The economic impacts of climate change: evidence from agricultural profits and random fluctuations of weather. MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change.
  18. Du, D., Zhao, X. and Huang, R. (2017). The impact of climate change on developed economies. Economics Letters, 153: 43-46.
  19. Falihi, N. (2008). An investigation of higher education effects on economic growth in Iran. Financial Economics (Financial and Development Economics), 5: 36-61. (Persian)
  20. Farajzadeh, Z., Zhu, X. and Bakhshoodeh, M. (2017). Trade reform in Iran for accession to the World Trade Organization: analysis of welfare and environmental impacts. Economic Modelling, 63: 75-85.
  21. Groves, D.G., Yates, D. and Tebaldi, C. (2008). Developing and applying uncertain global climate change projections for regional water management planning. Water Resources Research, 44(12): 1-16.
  22. Heidari Sareban, V. (2013). Effective factors on wheat producers' knowledge of soil management in Ardabil province. Journal of Research and Rural Planning, 3(7): 11-23. (Persian)
  23. Huang, H., von Lampe, M. and van Tongeren, F. (2011). Climate change and trade in agriculture. Food Policy, 36: 9-13.
  24. IPCC (2007). Climate change: climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Glossary. London: Cambridge University Press.
  25. IPCC (2014). Climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Fifth Assessment Report. Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press, London.
  26. Jahangard, E., Daneshmand, A., Panahi, S. and Nikbin, B. (2017). The effect of foreign direct investment on Iran's Economic Growth: Pajula's model augmentation. Financial Economics (Financial and Development Economics), 11(4): 95-115. (Persian)
  27. Kahsay, G.A. and Hansen, L.G. (2016). The effect of climate change and adaptation policy on agricultural production in Eastern Africa. Ecological Economics, 121: 54-64.
  28. Khaleghi, S., Bazzazan, F. and Madani, S. (2014). The effects of climate change on agricultural production and Iranian economy. Journal of Agricultural Economics Research, 25: 113-135. (Persian)
  29. Khiz, Z. (2013). The impacts of drought on Iran’s economy: a CGE analysis. Master Thesis of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Shiraz University. (Persian)
  30. Leichenko, R., Major, D.C., Johnson, K., Patrick, L. and O’Grady, M. (2011). An economic analysis of climate change impacts and adaptations in New York State. The ClimAID Integrated Assessment for Effective Climate Change Adaptation, Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 1244: 501-649.‏
  31. McKinnish, T. (2005). Lagged dependent variables and specification bias. Economics Letters, 88(1): 55-59.
  32. Medellín-Azuara, J., Harou, J.J., Olivares, M.A., Madani, K., Lund, J.R., Howitt, R.E. and Zhu, T. (2008). Adaptability and adaptations of California’s water supply system to dry climate warming. Climatic Change, 87(1): 75-90.
  33. Mir-Mousavi, H., Doustkamian, M. and Setoudeh, F. (2016). Analyzing spatial autocorrelation patterns of heavy and super heavy showers of Iran. Geography and Environmental Planning, 63(3): 67-86. (Persian)
  34. Molua, E.L. (2009). An empirical assessment of the impact of climate change on smallholder agriculture in Cameroon. Global and Planetary Change, 67(3-4): 205-208.
  35. Momeni, S. and Zibaei, M. (2013). Potential impacts of climate change on agriculture in Fars province. Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development, 27: 169-179. (Persian)
  36. Nikoomaram. H., Rahnama Roodposhti, F. and Jokar Tang-Karami, I. (2013). Explaining the role of foreign trade and innovation by accessing foreign technology on investment and economic growth in Iran. Financial Knowledge of Security Analysis, 20: 91-108. (Persian)
  37. Noor-Mohammadi, S., Tajbakhsh, S.M. and Memarian, H. (2017). A study on the impact of climatic factors on groundwater resources using spatio-temporal analysis of statistical time series (case study: Mashhad plain, Kasahfroud basin). Geography and Environmental Hazards, 21: 19-44. (Persian)
  38. Omrani, M. and Farajzadeh, Z. (2015). Capital’s role in Iranian agriculture growth. Journal of Agricultural Economics Research, 28: 1-19. (Persian)
  39. Ouedraogo, M., Some, L. and Dembele, Y. (2006). Economic impact assessment of climate change on agriculture in Burkina Faso: a Ricardian approach. Centre for Environmental Economics and Policy in Africa (CEEPA), University of Pretoria.
  40. Parhizkari, A. and Sabouhi, M. (2013). Analysis of the economic and welfare impacts of establishing the irrigation water market in Qazvin province. Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development, 27(4): 338-350. (Persian)
  41. Pishbahar, E., Darparnian, S. and Ghahremanzadeh, M. (2015). Effects of climate change on maize yield in Iran: application of spatial econometric approach with panel data. Journal of Agricultural Economics Research, 26: 83-106. (Persian)
  42. Rao, B.B. (2010). Estimates of the steady state growth rates for selected Asian countries with an extended Solow model. Economic Modelling, 27: 46-53.
  43. Reddy, K.R., Hodges, H.F. and McKinion, J. (2000). Impacts of climate change on cotton production: a southcentral assessment. National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder: Colorado.
  44. Reddy, K.R., Hodges, H.F. and McKinion, J. (2001).Impacts of climate change on cotton production, South-Central Region Annual Progress Report. USA: National Institute for Glob Environ Change.
  45. Reilly, J. (1999). What does climate change mean for agriculture in developing countries? A comment on Mendelsohn and Dinar. The World Bank Research Observer, 14(2): 295-305.
  46. Sadeghi, B., Ahmadpour Borazjani, M. and Dianati, M. (2017). The study of inflationary tax influence on the agriculture sector growth in Iran. Agricultural Economics and Development, 99: 1-16. (Persian)
  47. Sameti, M. and Faramarzpoor, B. (2004). Investigating the barriers to private investment in Iran's agricultural sector. Agricultural Economics and Development, 45: 91-112. (Persian)
  48. Shajari, S., Farajzadeh, Z. and Salah, A. (2018). Prioritizing credit allocation in Fars province agriculture subsector using neoclassical growth model. Agricultural Economics and Development, 103: 31-52. (Persian)
  49. Sojasi Qidari, H. and Behrooz, Z. (2017). Analysis of the effects of change in cropping pattern due to drought on saffron production in rural areas of the Zebarkhan district villages. Rural Development Strategies, 4(1): 39-58. (Persian)
  50. Solomon, S. (Ed.) (2007). Climate change 2007- the physical science basis: Working Group I, Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC, 4. London: Cambridge University Press.
  51. Soltani, G.H. (2004). Determining the rate of return on investment in the agricultural sector. Agricultural Economics and Development, 45: 19-40. (Persian)
  52. Stern, N. (2007). The economics of climate change: the Stern review. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
  53. UNFCCC (2015). Iran (Islamic Republic of): intended nationally determined contribution. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Available at http://www4.unfccc.int/submissions/indc/Submission%20Pages/submissions.aspx.
  54. Vaseghi, E. and Esmaeili, A. (2008). Investigation of the economic impacts of climate change on Iran’s agriculture: a Ricardian approach (case study: wheat). Journal of Science and Technology of Agriculture and Natural Resources, 12(45): 685-696. (Persian)
  55. Yates, D.N. and Strzepek, K.M. (1998). An assessment of integrated climate change impacts on the agricultural economy of Egypt. Climatic Change, 38(3): 261-287.
  56. Yoshino, M.M., Horie, T., Seino, H., Tsujii, H., Uchijima, T. and Uchijima, Z. (1988). The effects of climatic variations on agriculture in Japan. In: M.L. Parry, T.R. Carter and N.T. Kojin (eds.), The Impact of Climatic Variations on Agriculture. Volume 1: Assessment in Cool Temperate and Cold Regions, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, 725-868.
  57. Zaroki, S., Motameni, M. and Nattaj, M.A. (2016).Trade liberalization and agriculture performance, an application of trade intersectoral and overall indices. Journal of Agricultural Economics Research, 29: 129-159. (Persian)
  58. Zmudzka, E. (2004). The climatic background of agricultural production in Poland in years 1951-2000. Miscellanea Geographic, 11(2): 127-137.